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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, August 22, 2021

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DAY 326 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/23/2021 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 42.31°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 36.23°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 39.27°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.021 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 94 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 10 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 537 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.10 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.87 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.97 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 233 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 457.59 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 41 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 1 D₁: 3 D₂: 4 D₃: 2 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 40.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-08-23 04:00:05	OBSERVATION	2021	326	41	42.31004	36.23	39.27002	0	0.1	0.87	0.97	F	F	10.31004	537.31004	233	457.5920440763	0.0210561353138	94	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-23 00:00:01	FORECAST	2021	326	41	36.65	36.65	36.65	0.0003	0.1003	0.87	0.9703	F	F	4.65	531.65	234	458.12420256731	0.0041412899226031	94	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-22 12:00:01	FORECAST	2021	326	41	46.28	38.4	42.34	0.0206	0.1206	0.87	0.9906	F	F	14.28	541.28	234	458.12420256731	0.054039207133093	94	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-22 08:00:01	FORECAST	2021	326	41	46.46	39.09	42.775	0.0287	0.1287	0.87	0.9987	F	F	14.46	541.46	234	458.12420256731	0.056186136317267	94	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-22 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	326	41	47.15	39.74	43.445	0.0416	0.1416	0.87	1.0116	F	F	15.15	542.15	234	458.12420256731	0.065042245586119	94	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-22 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	326	41	50.14	39.78	44.96	0.0493	0.1093	0.87	0.9793	F	F	18.14	540.14	233	457.5920440763	0.11622891232632	94	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-21 20:00:01	FORECAST	2021	326	41	50.2	39.95	45.075	0.043	0.113	0.87	0.983	F	F	18.2	548.2	233	457.5920440763	0.11748759079388	94	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-21 16:00:01	FORECAST	2021	326	41	50.66	39.47	45.065	0.0238	0.0938	0.87	0.9638	F	F	18.66	548.66	233	457.5920440763	0.12745752498605	94	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-21 12:00:01	FORECAST	2021	326	41	50.74	39.49	45.115	0.0181	0.0881	0.87	0.9581	F	F	18.74	548.74	233	457.5920440763	0.12924959957644	94	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-21 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	326	41	51.18	39.71	45.445	0.0152	0.0852	0.87	0.9552	F	F	19.18	552.18	233	457.5920440763	0.13941679862796	94	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-21 04:00:06	FORECAST	2021	326	41	51.2	39.92	45.56	0.0181	0.0981	0.87	0.9681	F	F	19.2	553.2	233	457.5920440763	0.13989148930182	94	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-21 00:00:01	FORECAST	2021	326	41	51.81	40.04	45.925	0.0187	0.0487	0.87	0.9187	F	F	19.81	547.81	233	457.5920440763	0.15489650397217	94	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-20 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	326	41	52.33	39.99	46.16	0.0233	0.0933	0.87	0.9633	F	F	20.33	563.33	233	457.5920440763	0.16849553697956	94	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-20 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	326	41	51.55	40.03	45.79	0.0254	0.1154	0.87	0.9854	F	F	19.55	563.55	233	457.5920440763	0.14837597232432	94	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-20 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	326	41	52.1	40	46.05	0.0203	0.0903	0.87	0.9603	F	F	20.1	564.1	233	457.5920440763	0.16238882393338	94	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-20 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	326	41	52.32	40.07	46.195	0.0138	0.0838	0.87	0.9538	F	F	20.32	560.32	233	457.5920440763	0.16822700355615	94	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-20 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	326	41	52.11	39.52	45.815	0.02	0.1	0.87	0.97	F	F	20.11	557.11	233	457.5920440763	0.16265130773109	94	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-20 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	326	41	51.33	39.34	45.335	0.0283	0.1483	0.87	1.0183	F	F	19.33	546.33	233	457.5920440763	0.14300366378661	94	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-19 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	326	41	52.64	40.65	46.645	0.0384	0.1784	0.87	1.0484	F	F	20.64	560.64	233	457.5920440763	0.17695620775321	94	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-19 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	326	41	53.38	40.76	47.07	0.0327	0.1927	0.87	1.0627	F	F	21.38	561.38	233	457.5920440763	0.1982125543021	94	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-19 12:00:04	FORECAST	2021	326	41	51.88	40.75	46.315	0.0398	0.1698	0.87	1.0398	F	F	19.88	558.88	233	457.5920440763	0.15668380386758	94	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-19 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	326	41	51.48	41.59	46.535	0.0487	0.1787	0.87	1.0487	F	F	19.48	557.48	233	457.5920440763	0.14665219158566	94	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-19 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	326	41	57.68	42.79	50.235	0.0197	0.2297	0.87	1.0997	F	F	25.68	561.68	233	457.5920440763	0.34860154804749	94	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2021-08-19 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	326	41	57.47	42.55	50.01	0.0248	0.2548	0.87	1.1248	F	F	25.47	550.47	233	457.5920440763	0.3403499233753	94	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2021-08-18 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	326	41	56.91	41.88	49.395	0.0225	0.2025	0.88	1.0825	F	F	24.91	565.91	233	457.5920440763	0.31872474669298	94	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2021-08-18 16:00:04	FORECAST	2021	326	41	56.91	41.88	49.395	0.0244	0.2244	0.88	1.1044	F	F	24.91	568.91	233	457.5920440763	0.31872474669298	94	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2021-08-18 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	326	41	57.15	41.65	49.4	0.0256	0.1656	0.88	1.0456	F	F	25.15	567.15	233	457.5920440763	0.32792270791744	94	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2021-08-18 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	326	41	52.97	41.47	47.22	0.0256	0.1656	0.88	1.0456	F	F	20.97	561.97	233	457.5920440763	0.18625165475429	94	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-18 04:00:10	FORECAST	2021	326	41	55.08	41.47	48.275	0.0259	0.1659	0.87	1.0359	F	F	23.08	571.08	233	457.5920440763	0.25252481200355	94	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2021-08-18 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	326	41	52.29	41.14	46.715	0.0454	0.2054	0.62	0.8254	F	F	20.29	567.29	233	457.5920440763	0.16742305207469	94	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-17 20:00:07	FORECAST	2021	326	41	49.99	39.66	44.825	0.06	0.24	0.65	0.89	F	F	17.99	573.99	233	457.5920440763	0.11312403279789	94	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-17 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	326	41	50.02	39.73	44.875	0.0628	0.2328	0.65	0.8828	F	F	18.02	576.02	233	457.5920440763	0.1137402406972	94	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-17 12:00:07	FORECAST	2021	326	41	50.73	38.7	44.715	0.0586	0.1386	0.65	0.7886	F	F	18.73	576.73	233	457.5920440763	0.12902464282303	94	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-17 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	326	41	50.69	38.72	44.705	0.0586	0.1286	0.65	0.7786	F	F	18.69	562.69	233	457.5920440763	0.12812752346605	94	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-17 04:00:11	FORECAST	2021	326	41	52.21	38.81	45.51	0.058	0.128	0.67	0.798	F	F	20.21	577.21	233	457.5920440763	0.16529127637477	94	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-17 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	326	41	48	36.86	42.43	0.3033	0.3833	0.69	1.0733	F	F	16	557	233	457.5920440763	0.077392573696132	94	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-16 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	326	41	47.9	36.9	42.4	0.3038	0.3738	0.73	1.1038	F	F	15.9	576.9	233	457.5920440763	0.075853580761582	94	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-16 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	326	41	46.43	35.94	41.185	0.305	0.375	0.71	1.085	F	F	14.43	569.43	233	457.5920440763	0.055823731883126	94	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-16 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	326	41	48.73	39.26	43.995	0.0557	0.1157	0.7	0.8157	F	F	16.73	579.73	233	457.5920440763	0.089350797587598	94	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-16 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	326	41	53.43	42.26	47.845	0.0172	0.0872	0.69	0.7772	F	F	21.43	575.43	233	457.5920440763	0.19970220386578	94	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-16 04:00:09	FORECAST	2021	326	41	53.37	42.35	47.86	0.0172	0.0872	0.68	0.7672	F	F	21.37	576.37	233	457.5920440763	0.1979154296284	94	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-16 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	326	41	59.19	44.75	51.97	0.0003	0.0003	0.7	0.7003	F	F	27.19	581.19	233	457.5920440763	0.40983648184684	94	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2021-08-15 20:00:07	FORECAST	2021	326	41	59.01	44.76	51.885	0	0	0.69	0.69	F	F	27.01	604.01	233	457.5920440763	0.40238700715813	94	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2021-08-15 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	326	41	54.59	44.97	49.78	0	0.01	0.68	0.69	F	F	22.59	595.59	233	457.5920440763	0.23611245134066	94	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-15 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	326	41	50.97	45.14	48.055	0	0	0.69	0.69	F	F	18.97	590.97	233	457.5920440763	0.13449850981534	94	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-15 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	326	41	46.73	45.08	45.905	0	0	0.69	0.69	F	F	14.73	577.73	233	457.5920440763	0.059531529518833	94	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-15 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	326	41	44.75	43.89	44.32	0	0	0.71	0.71	F	F	12.75	580.75	233	457.5920440763	0.038299555423524	94	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L