MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, August 20, 2021

[ Thursday, August 19, 2021 | Index | Today | Saturday, August 21, 2021 ]

DAY 324 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/21/2021 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 47.80°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 42.31°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 45.06°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.084
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 95 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 16
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 601

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.06 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.06 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.87 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.93 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 231
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.52 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 39

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 22.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-08-21 04:00:05OBSERVATION20213243947.8000442.3100445.0550400.0599999999999450.0599999999999450.870.92999999999995FF15.80004600.80004231456.52164123267 00.0840873378769595 13515222.5DRYL
2021-08-21 00:00:01FORECAST20213243942.2842.2842.2800.00140.00140.870.8714FF10.28595.28232457.0578595359600.029315806326789513415220DRYL
2021-08-20 12:00:01FORECAST20213243957.7344.5151.1200.02740.02740.870.8974FF25.73610.73232457.0578595359600.323463531770289523515225DRYL
2021-08-20 08:00:02FORECAST20213243953.8544.5249.18500.04750.04750.870.9175FF21.85606.85232457.0578595359600.206870355876769513515222.5DRYL
2021-08-20 04:00:04FORECAST20213243952.145.248.6500.03250.03250.870.9025FF20.1605.1232457.0578595359600.163681662348299513515222.5DRYL
2021-08-20 00:00:02FORECAST20213243954.7745.4350.100.05350.05350.870.9235FF22.77595.77231456.5216412326700.232046563521669513415220DRYL
2021-08-19 20:00:02FORECAST20213243954.9345.5850.25500.07210.07210.870.9421FF22.93608.93231456.5216412326700.236592543567899513515222.5DRYL
2021-08-19 16:00:02FORECAST20213243954.845.6450.2200.08450.08450.870.9545FF22.8608.8231456.5216412326700.232895218848869513515222.5DRYL
2021-08-19 12:00:03FORECAST20213243954.8345.2550.0400.06330.06330.870.9333FF22.83608.83231456.5216412326700.233745592658599513515222.5DRYL
2021-08-19 08:00:04FORECAST20213243954.6645.1149.88500.05020.05020.870.9202FF22.66607.66231456.5216412326700.228949578700639513515222.5DRYL
2021-08-19 04:00:07FORECAST20213243954.5744.8749.7200.07370.07370.870.9437FF22.57604.57231456.5216412326700.226432999272839513515222.5DRYL
2021-08-19 00:00:03FORECAST20213243954.9645.1350.04500.09350.09350.870.9635FF22.96592.96231456.5216412326700.237450328189019513425240DRYM
2021-08-18 20:00:04FORECAST20213243954.1445.7149.92500.08860.09860.870.9686FF22.14608.14231456.5216412326700.214626869271029513525245DRYM
2021-08-18 16:00:04FORECAST20213243955.1645.7550.45500.10660.11660.870.9866FF23.16610.16231456.5216412326700.243212221787869513525245DRYM
2021-08-18 12:00:06FORECAST20213243956.4946.851.64500.08690.09690.870.9669FF24.49611.49231456.5216412326700.283373239790899523525250DRYMH
2021-08-18 08:00:06FORECAST20213243956.0346.2951.1600.09070.10070.870.9707FF24.03610.03231456.5216412326700.269130762281769523525250DRYMH
2021-08-18 04:00:10FORECAST20213243956.7546.4451.59500.09020.09020.870.9602FF24.75611.75231456.5216412326700.291579885493619523525250DRYMH
2021-08-18 00:00:06FORECAST20213243956.8146.6651.73500.08040.08040.620.7004FF24.81609.81231456.5216412326700.293489330990519523515225DRYL
2021-08-17 20:00:07FORECAST20213243956.4846.8151.64500.10680.10680.650.7568FF24.48620.48231456.5216412326700.283059821448059523525250DRYMH
2021-08-17 16:00:06FORECAST20213243958.2647.1852.7200.10790.10790.650.7579FF26.26622.26231456.5216412326700.341283392405259523525250DRYMH
2021-08-17 12:00:06FORECAST20213243959.3146.6152.9600.03840.03840.650.6884FF27.31623.31231456.5216412326700.37761679772079523515225DRYL
2021-08-17 08:00:06FORECAST20213243952.1145.8348.9700.03250.03250.650.6825FF20.11613.11231456.5216412326700.163910562840089513515222.5DRYL
2021-08-17 04:00:11FORECAST20213243957.8546.155200.03070.03070.670.7007FF25.85621.85231456.5216412326700.327464767259589523515225DRYL
2021-08-17 00:00:06FORECAST20213243956.8145.5851.19500.0310.0310.690.721FF24.81606.81231456.5216412326700.293489330990519523515225DRYL
2021-08-16 20:00:06FORECAST20213243958.9444.5351.73500.02420.02420.730.7542FF26.94626.94231456.5216412326700.364670144396369523515225DRYL
2021-08-16 16:00:06FORECAST20213243958.745.9752.33500.02320.02320.710.7332FF26.7624.7231456.5216412326700.356353014557849523515225DRYL
2021-08-16 12:00:06FORECAST20213243961.4648.4854.9700.02260.02260.70.7226FF29.46628.46231456.5216412326700.455140104436939523515225DRYL
2021-08-16 08:00:06FORECAST20213243960.9948.4654.72500.01870.01870.690.7087FF28.99620.99231456.5216412326700.437937440583069523515225DRYL
2021-08-16 04:00:09FORECAST2021324396550.7657.8800.01880.01880.680.6988FF33626231456.5216412326700.58514366039579533515227.5DRYL
2021-08-16 00:00:06FORECAST20213243969.9452.5161.2250000.70.7FF37.94612.94231456.5216412326700.749357812809049543515160DRYH
2021-08-15 20:00:07FORECAST20213243969.8253.0161.4150000.690.69FF37.82635.82231456.5216412326700.74580862521049543515160DRYH
2021-08-15 16:00:06FORECAST20213243968.7952.3360.560000.680.68FF36.79635.79231456.5216412326700.714297068480969543515160DRYH
2021-08-15 12:00:06FORECAST20213243967.5951.2959.440000.690.69FF35.59633.59231456.5216412326700.675399277273219533515227.5DRYL
2021-08-15 08:00:06FORECAST20213243967.5951.2859.4350000.690.69FF35.59624.59231456.5216412326700.675399277273219533515227.5DRYL
2021-08-15 04:00:08FORECAST20213243966.6251.0458.830000.710.71FF34.62630.62231456.5216412326700.642467002755679533515227.5DRYL
2021-08-15 00:00:05FORECAST20213243973.4254.3963.9050000.690.69FF41.42626.42231456.5216412326700.840084072480289543515160DRYH
2021-08-14 20:00:06FORECAST20213243974.555.8665.180000.690.69FF42.5644.5231456.5216412326700.863216328288159553515165DRYH
2021-08-14 16:00:06FORECAST20213243974.5455.8565.1950000.670.67FF42.54643.54231456.5216412326700.864026864099099553515165DRYH
2021-08-14 12:00:06FORECAST20213243969.2354.1161.670000.680.68FF37.23633.23231456.5216412326700.727983094470639543515160DRYH
2021-08-14 08:00:06FORECAST20213243969.2954.0861.6850000.680.68FF37.29638.29231456.5216412326700.729823829138249543515160DRYH
2021-08-14 04:00:08FORECAST20213243969.354.1361.71500.00080.00080.670.6708FF37.3637.3231456.5216412326700.73013001222519543515160DRYH
2021-08-14 00:00:06FORECAST20213243973.2756.1464.7050000.660.66FF41.27636.27231456.5216412326700.836680339893179543515160DRYH
2021-08-13 20:00:06FORECAST20213243973.3755.5564.460000.650.65FF41.37649.37231456.5216412326700.838954673855149543515160DRYH
2021-08-13 16:00:06FORECAST20213243973.0155.5264.2650000.650.65FF41.01653.01231456.5216412326700.830670172712349543515160DRYH
2021-08-13 12:00:06FORECAST20213243973.4260.867.110000.650.65FF41.42653.42231456.5216412326700.840084072480289543515160DRYH
2021-08-13 08:00:06FORECAST20213243962.1761.3361.750000.650.65FF30.17643.17231456.5216412326700.481276972559029523515225DRYL
2021-08-13 04:00:07FORECAST20213243962.1661.3361.7450000.650.65FF30.16641.16231456.5216412326700.48090802204159523515225DRYL