MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, August 16, 2021

[ Sunday, August 15, 2021 | Index | Today | Tuesday, August 17, 2021 ]

DAY 320 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/17/2021 04:00:10 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 63.51°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 46.96°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 55.24°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.536
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 97 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 692

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.66 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.66 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 227
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 454.36 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 35

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 27.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-08-17 04:00:10OBSERVATION20213203563.5100846.9599855.235030000.660.66FF31.51008691.51008227454.35627508706 00.5362751575638497 33515227.5DRYL
2021-08-17 00:00:03FORECAST20213203548.9548.9548.9500.00510.00510.660.6651FF16.95676.95228454.9007061675400.0982115903971649713515222.5DRYL
2021-08-16 12:00:02FORECAST20213203565.1745.9555.5600.04850.04850.660.7085FF33.17693.17228454.9007061675400.598183657505369733515227.5DRYL
2021-08-16 08:00:03FORECAST20213203560.3347.5653.94500.04050.04050.660.7005FF28.33688.33228454.9007061675400.416495998328189723515225DRYL
2021-08-16 04:00:09FORECAST20213203555.9347.5151.7200.04230.04230.660.7023FF23.93683.93228454.9007061675400.264797815050899723515225DRYL
2021-08-16 00:00:06FORECAST20213203556.2946.7251.50500.04080.04080.660.7008FF24.29665.29227454.3562750870600.276108773125899723515225DRYL
2021-08-15 20:00:06FORECAST20213203558.746.652.6500.04080.05080.660.7108FF26.7685.7227454.3562750870600.357324086081969723515225DRYL
2021-08-15 16:00:02FORECAST20213203558.5146.7652.63500.03770.04770.660.7077FF26.51685.51227454.3562750870600.350615326260519723515225DRYL
2021-08-15 12:00:06FORECAST20213203558.3247.6152.96500.04730.05730.660.7173FF26.32685.32227454.3562750870600.343952810674439723515225DRYL
2021-08-15 08:00:06FORECAST20213203558.8147.753.25500.05490.06490.660.7249FF26.81682.81227454.3562750870600.361228507007059723515225DRYL
2021-08-15 04:00:08FORECAST20213203557.9747.1352.5500.06650.07650.660.7365FF25.97682.97227454.3562750870600.331806916346469723515225DRYL
2021-08-15 00:00:05FORECAST20213203557.6248.6153.11500.04760.05760.660.7176FF25.62669.62227454.3562750870600.319835168872529723515225DRYL
2021-08-14 20:00:06FORECAST20213203557.6947.6152.6500.05280.06280.660.7228FF25.69683.69227454.3562750870600.322215074588649723515225DRYL
2021-08-14 16:00:06FORECAST20213203556.7747.7552.2600.03560.04560.660.7056FF24.77682.77227454.3562750870600.291549224709439723515225DRYL
2021-08-14 12:00:06FORECAST20213203556.9948.3852.68500.03280.04280.660.7028FF24.99682.99227454.3562750870600.298758027891119723515225DRYL
2021-08-14 08:00:06FORECAST20213203558.4348.8553.6400.02810.03810.660.6981FF26.43685.43227454.3562750870600.347804313434069723515225DRYL
2021-08-14 04:00:08FORECAST20213203558.2348.9253.57500.01920.02920.660.6892FF26.23684.23227454.3562750870600.34081355140979723515225DRYL
2021-08-14 00:00:05FORECAST20213203557.0748.7652.91500.02010.03010.660.6901FF25.07669.07227454.3562750870600.301399331523319723515225DRYL
2021-08-13 20:00:06FORECAST20213203557.6848.4653.0700.0210.0310.660.691FF25.68681.68227454.3562750870600.321874638856489723515225DRYL
2021-08-13 16:00:06FORECAST20213203560.0749.4354.7500.0160.0260.660.686FF28.07685.07227454.3562750870600.406890747540119723515225DRYL
2021-08-13 12:00:06FORECAST20213203557.2150.6153.9100.02370.03370.660.6937FF25.21683.21227454.3562750870600.306046693277749723515225DRYL
2021-08-13 08:00:06FORECAST20213203560.3550.6155.4800.01790.02790.660.6879FF28.35682.35227454.3562750870600.417237011036189723515225DRYL
2021-08-13 04:00:07FORECAST20213203560.3550.6155.4800.01790.02790.660.6879FF28.35683.35227454.3562750870600.417237011036189723515225DRYL
2021-08-13 00:00:05FORECAST20213203558.1448.6753.40500.03520.04520.660.7052FF26.14672.14227454.3562750870600.337685270780549723515225DRYL
2021-08-12 20:00:06FORECAST20213203556.0547.851.92500.04150.05150.660.7115FF24.05686.05227454.3562750870600.268541845991649723515225DRYL
2021-08-12 16:00:05FORECAST20213203558.948.2953.59500.09150.11150.660.7715FF26.9686.9227454.3562750870600.364433837294339723525250DRYMH
2021-08-12 12:00:06FORECAST20213203557.5847.752.6400.09670.11670.660.7767FF25.58684.58227454.3562750870600.31847853443839723525250DRYMH
2021-08-12 08:00:06FORECAST20213203553.9246.4550.18500.07330.13330.660.7933FF21.92678.92227454.3562750870600.206250506671589713525245DRYM
2021-08-12 04:00:08FORECAST20213203553.8946.4550.1700.07330.13330.660.7933FF21.89678.89227454.3562750870600.205438973625119713525245DRYM
2021-08-12 00:00:06FORECAST20213203555.844.2650.0300.06340.08340.660.7434FF23.8664.8227454.3562750870600.260771905851239723515225DRYL
2021-08-11 20:00:04FORECAST20213203557.5146.6752.0900.02730.05730.660.7173FF25.51686.51227454.3562750870600.316110274534089723515225DRYL
2021-08-11 16:00:05FORECAST20213203557.5347.7852.65500.02270.11270.660.7727FF25.53683.53227454.3562750870600.316786156892499723525250DRYMH
2021-08-11 12:00:06FORECAST20213203555.2445.8750.55500.09860.18860.660.8486FF23.24669.24227454.3562750870600.243796098385889713525245DRYM
2021-08-11 08:00:05FORECAST20213203554.444.749.5500.08340.14340.670.8134FF22.4666.4227454.3562750870600.219490960322799713525245DRYM
2021-08-11 04:00:10FORECAST20213203554.4345.0549.7400.08340.10340.660.7634FF22.43676.43227454.3562750870600.220334359227599713525245DRYM
2021-08-11 00:00:06FORECAST20213203554.1243.2648.6900.03860.09860.660.7586FF22.12661.12227454.3562750870600.211709004574459713525245DRYM
2021-08-10 20:00:06FORECAST20213203552.9243.6748.29500.03430.12430.660.7843FF20.92670.92227454.3562750870600.180231197321919713525245DRYM
2021-08-10 16:00:06FORECAST20213203553.1943.3448.26500.03430.13430.660.7943FF21.19674.19227454.3562750870600.187045355690249713525245DRYM
2021-08-10 12:00:06FORECAST20213203552.0847.3249.700.13480.17480.670.8448FF20.08673.08227454.3562750870600.160041898948599713525245DRYM
2021-08-10 08:00:05FORECAST20213203554.6645.4350.04500.13280.16280.670.8328FF22.66677.66227454.3562750870600.226861716373379713525245DRYM
2021-08-10 04:00:07FORECAST20213203554.6845.850.2400.13280.16280.680.8428FF22.68678.68227454.3562750870600.227434412870529713525245DRYM
2021-08-10 00:00:06FORECAST20213203554.9145.8750.3900.04440.04440.670.7144FF22.91673.91227454.3562750870600.234078554207889713515222.5DRYL
2021-08-09 20:00:05FORECAST20213203552.5345.5949.0600.04540.05540.670.7254FF20.53683.53227454.3562750870600.170666909291919713515222.5DRYL
2021-08-09 16:00:06FORECAST20213203552.2545.5248.88500.02410.03410.670.7041FF20.25685.25227454.3562750870600.164003980709849713515222.5DRYL
2021-08-09 12:00:06FORECAST20213203557.5953.1155.3500.01730.02730.670.6973FF25.59687.59227454.3562750870600.318817466057769723515225DRYL
2021-08-09 08:00:06FORECAST20213203554.3551.8653.1050000.670.67FF22.35679.35227454.3562750870600.218089417214049713515222.5DRYL
2021-08-09 04:00:07FORECAST20213203554.3553.1453.7450000.660.66FF22.35687.35227454.3562750870600.218089417214049713515222.5DRYL