MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, August 15, 2021

[ Saturday, August 14, 2021 | Index | Today | Monday, August 16, 2021 ]

DAY 319 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/16/2021 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 76.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 56.63°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 66.31°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.877
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 95 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 44
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 705

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.66 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.66 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 226
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 453.81 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 34

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 65.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-08-16 04:00:08OBSERVATION20213193475.9999256.6299466.314930000.660.66FF43.99992704.99992226453.80977123269 00.8768150725606495 53515165DRYH
2021-08-16 00:00:02FORECAST20213193457.3557.3557.3500.00080.00080.660.6608FF25.35686.35227454.3562750870600.283785485610949523515225DRYL
2021-08-15 12:00:04FORECAST20213193474.9456.5365.73500.00530.00530.660.6653FF42.94703.94227454.3562750870600.855599722319619553515165DRYH
2021-08-15 08:00:04FORECAST20213193472.4357.0564.7400.0060.0060.660.666FF40.43701.43227454.3562750870600.796082405642259543515160DRYH
2021-08-15 04:00:08FORECAST20213193472.6557.1564.900.00740.00740.660.6674FF40.65701.65227454.3562750870600.801817506354899543515160DRYH
2021-08-15 00:00:05FORECAST20213193471.7156.9564.3300.00780.00780.660.6678FF39.71688.71226453.8097712326900.776635289799119543515160DRYH
2021-08-14 20:00:03FORECAST20213193471.7856.9564.36500.00690.00690.660.6669FF39.78702.78226453.8097712326900.778570996117079543515160DRYH
2021-08-14 16:00:03FORECAST20213193471.9956.6564.3200.00740.00740.660.6674FF39.99702.99226453.8097712326900.784320327838779543515160DRYH
2021-08-14 12:00:06FORECAST20213193472.3956.6364.5100.0070.0070.660.667FF40.39703.39226453.8097712326900.79502915604719543515160DRYH
2021-08-14 08:00:06FORECAST20213193472.5156.7264.61500.00710.00710.660.6671FF40.51703.51226453.8097712326900.798179224177819543515160DRYH
2021-08-14 04:00:08FORECAST20213193472.6556.6664.65500.00710.00710.660.6671FF40.65702.65226453.8097712326900.801817506354899543515160DRYH
2021-08-14 00:00:05FORECAST20213193472.3856.8664.6200.00710.00710.660.6671FF40.38689.38226453.8097712326900.79476534021949543515160DRYH
2021-08-13 20:00:06FORECAST20213193471.4356.4563.9400.00710.00710.660.6671FF39.43701.43226453.8097712326900.768797062538429543515160DRYH
2021-08-13 16:00:05FORECAST20213193471.5655.7663.6600.00710.00710.660.6671FF39.56701.56226453.8097712326900.772455148268419543515160DRYH
2021-08-13 12:00:06FORECAST20213193471.9455.8663.900.00710.00710.660.6671FF39.94702.94226453.8097712326900.782959330467959543515160DRYH
2021-08-13 08:00:06FORECAST20213193468.1556.9762.5600.01320.01320.660.6732FF36.15699.15226453.8097712326900.666586536645359533515155DRYH
2021-08-13 04:00:07FORECAST20213193468.1556.9762.5600.01320.01320.660.6732FF36.15700.15226453.8097712326900.666586536645359533515155DRYH
2021-08-13 00:00:05FORECAST20213193470.8356.3363.5800.00750.00750.660.6675FF38.83690.83226453.8097712326900.75149616155749543515160DRYH
2021-08-12 20:00:06FORECAST20213193471.855.0263.4100.00930.00930.660.6693FF39.8706.8226453.8097712326900.779122291525489543515160DRYH
2021-08-12 16:00:04FORECAST20213193469.8352.9161.3700.0190.0190.660.679FF37.83704.83226453.8097712326900.72119762100819543515160DRYH
2021-08-12 12:00:06FORECAST20213193468.7552.760.72500.0210.0210.660.681FF36.75703.75226453.8097712326900.686581230667119533515155DRYH
2021-08-12 08:00:06FORECAST20213193468.2252.9560.58500.05510.05510.660.7151FF36.22702.22226453.8097712326900.668945196232399533515155DRYH
2021-08-12 04:00:08FORECAST20213193469.2952.9561.1200.0580.0580.660.718FF37.29702.29226453.8097712326900.704121697902419543515160DRYH
2021-08-12 00:00:06FORECAST20213193464.0452.7258.3800.01790.01790.660.6779FF32.04686.04226453.8097712326900.519596025822329533515227.5DRYL
2021-08-11 20:00:04FORECAST20213193467.5252.1559.83500.03080.03080.660.6908FF35.52705.52226453.8097712326900.645071513854949533515227.5DRYL
2021-08-11 16:00:05FORECAST20213193465.6852.7259.200.09320.09320.660.7532FF33.68702.68226453.8097712326900.579773630781179533525255DRYH
2021-08-11 12:00:06FORECAST20213193464.0452.558.2700.09390.09390.660.7539FF32.04691.04226453.8097712326900.519596025822329533525255DRYH
2021-08-11 08:00:05FORECAST20213193461.554.0557.77500.04470.06470.670.7347FF29.5688.5226453.8097712326900.426008537276829523515225DRYL
2021-08-11 04:00:09FORECAST20213193466.3354.0560.1900.0180.0180.660.678FF34.33699.33226453.8097712326900.603195752648259533515227.5DRYL
2021-08-11 00:00:06FORECAST20213193460.4848.4254.4500.06470.06470.660.7247FF28.48684.48226453.8097712326900.38928199623789523515225DRYL
2021-08-10 20:00:06FORECAST20213193461.2948.0954.6900.08720.08720.660.7472FF29.29695.29226453.8097712326900.418383266542279523515225DRYL
2021-08-10 16:00:06FORECAST20213193462.4848.1155.29500.08740.09740.660.7574FF30.48698.48226453.8097712326900.461914466676949523525250DRYMH
2021-08-10 12:00:05FORECAST20213193464.452.4658.4300.03690.04690.660.7069FF32.4698.4226453.8097712326900.532892897860829533515227.5DRYL
2021-08-10 08:00:05FORECAST20213193464.9454.2959.61500.030.040.660.7FF32.94699.94226453.8097712326900.552764982379629533515227.5DRYL
2021-08-10 04:00:07FORECAST20213193464.9454.0359.48500.030.050.660.71FF32.94700.94226453.8097712326900.552764982379629533515227.5DRYL
2021-08-10 00:00:06FORECAST20213193470.1154.5162.310000.670.67FF38.11696.11226453.8097712326900.729859113632559543515160DRYH
2021-08-09 20:00:05FORECAST20213193469.2153.2861.24500.00670.00670.670.6767FF37.21708.21226453.8097712326900.701551674397389543515160DRYH
2021-08-09 16:00:06FORECAST20213193469.2353.2261.22500.00670.00670.670.6767FF37.23710.23226453.8097712326900.702195131149119543515160DRYH
2021-08-09 12:00:06FORECAST2021319346856.462.200.01110.01110.670.6811FF36707226453.8097712326900.661510144709759533515155DRYH
2021-08-09 08:00:05FORECAST20213193470.1155.2262.66500.00040.00040.670.6704FF38.11702.11226453.8097712326900.729859113632559543515160DRYH
2021-08-09 04:00:07FORECAST20213193470.1455.2262.6800.00040.00040.660.6604FF38.14710.14226453.8097712326900.730779095071399543515160DRYH
2021-08-09 00:00:05FORECAST20213193472.2158.9565.580000.60.6FF40.21715.21226453.8097712326900.790249744609149543515160DRYH
2021-08-08 20:00:05FORECAST20213193473.759.3566.5250000.620.62FF41.7730.7226453.8097712326900.827826206168039543515160DRYH
2021-08-08 16:00:05FORECAST20213193473.7859.3366.5550000.620.62FF41.78725.78226453.8097712326900.829714517110189543515160DRYH
2021-08-08 12:00:06FORECAST20213193464.5660.3862.4700.00070.00070.620.6207FF32.56712.56226453.8097712326900.538791741671499533515227.5DRYL
2021-08-08 08:00:06FORECAST20213193464.5361.6763.100.00070.00070.630.6307FF32.53711.53226453.8097712326900.537686318819189533515227.5DRYL
2021-08-08 04:00:08FORECAST20213193464.5362.3163.4200.00020.00020.660.6602FF32.53723.53226453.8097712326900.537686318819189533515227.5DRYL