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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, August 12, 2021

[ Wednesday, August 11, 2021 | Index | Today | Friday, August 13, 2021 ]

DAY 316 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/13/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 81.60°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 68.42°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 75.01°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.957
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 98 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 50
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 677

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.66 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.66 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 223
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 452.16 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 31

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 2
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-08-13 04:00:07OBSERVATION20213163181.6000868.4199475.010010000.660.66FF49.60008676.60008223452.15774396071 00.9570242901026798 52515160DRYH
2021-08-13 00:00:03FORECAST20213163169.0469.0469.040000.660.66FF37.04664.04224452.7105136061700.688125197297369832515150DRYMH
2021-08-12 12:00:03FORECAST20213163183.7470.3177.0250000.660.66FF51.74678.74224452.7105136061700.972996471682269852515160DRYH
2021-08-12 08:00:03FORECAST20213163183.4269.976.660000.660.66FF51.42678.42224452.7105136061700.970981465098279852515160DRYH
2021-08-12 04:00:08FORECAST20213163184.566.1675.3300.00030.00030.660.6603FF52.5679.5224452.7105136061700.977319146099389852515160DRYH
2021-08-12 00:00:05FORECAST20213163180.8766.5473.7050000.660.66FF48.87665.87223452.1577439607100.950085880538839852515160DRYH
2021-08-11 20:00:02FORECAST20213163184.3365.5174.920000.660.66FF52.33680.33223452.1577439607100.976406443900859852515160DRYH
2021-08-11 16:00:02FORECAST20213163184.4667.3675.910000.660.66FF52.46680.46223452.1577439607100.977107107708679852515160DRYH
2021-08-11 12:00:05FORECAST20213163181.5965.6373.610000.660.66FF49.59677.59223452.1577439607100.956934078552789852515160DRYH
2021-08-11 08:00:05FORECAST20213163181.5765.8373.7000.010.660.67FF49.57677.57223452.1577439607100.956754635954059852515160DRYH
2021-08-11 04:00:09FORECAST20213163182.0265.7273.870000.660.66FF50.02679.02223452.1577439607100.96064912619189852515160DRYH
2021-08-11 00:00:05FORECAST20213163181.6965.573.5950000.660.66FF49.69670.69223452.1577439607100.957822316598199852515160DRYH
2021-08-10 20:00:06FORECAST20213163181.3665.6273.490000.660.66FF49.36679.36223452.1577439607100.954833927384489852515160DRYH
2021-08-10 16:00:05FORECAST20213163181.6565.9973.820000.660.66FF49.65680.65223452.1577439607100.957468811101249852515160DRYH
2021-08-10 12:00:05FORECAST20213163181.5566.4874.0150000.660.66FF49.55680.55223452.1577439607100.956574591952699852515160DRYH
2021-08-10 08:00:05FORECAST20213163181.3966.5873.9850000.660.66FF49.39681.39223452.1577439607100.955112431517399852515160DRYH
2021-08-10 04:00:07FORECAST20213163181.4466.6574.0450000.660.66FF49.44681.44223452.1577439607100.955573541053719852515160DRYH
2021-08-10 00:00:05FORECAST20213163181.3666.874.08000.010.660.67FF49.36670.36223452.1577439607100.954833927384489852515160DRYH
2021-08-09 20:00:05FORECAST2021316318366.8674.93000.010.660.67FF51684223452.1577439607100.968149207438039852515160DRYH
2021-08-09 16:00:05FORECAST20213163183.3666.9975.175000.010.660.67FF51.36685.36223452.1577439607100.970590110520879852515160DRYH
2021-08-09 12:00:06FORECAST20213163180.0966.8873.485000.010.660.67FF48.09681.09223452.1577439607100.941718641858369852515160DRYH
2021-08-09 08:00:04FORECAST20213163179.9867.1973.585000.010.660.67FF47.98680.98223452.1577439607100.940455065516869852515160DRYH
2021-08-09 04:00:07FORECAST20213163184.666.7575.6750000.660.66FF52.6688.6223452.1577439607100.977842027488679852515160DRYH
2021-08-09 00:00:05FORECAST20213163184.6266.3475.480000.60.6FF52.62686.62223452.1577439607100.977945376608289852515160DRYH
2021-08-08 20:00:03FORECAST20213163184.6265.174.860000.620.62FF52.62697.62223452.1577439607100.977945376608289852515160DRYH
2021-08-08 16:00:04FORECAST20213163184.5766.6675.6150000.620.62FF52.57696.57223452.1577439607100.977686239463449852515160DRYH
2021-08-08 12:00:05FORECAST20213163182.0866.6274.350000.620.62FF50.08691.08223452.1577439607100.961146194268959852515160DRYH
2021-08-08 08:00:05FORECAST20213163182.0366.6274.3250000.630.63FF50.03685.03223452.1577439607100.960732327258039852515160DRYH
2021-08-08 04:00:07FORECAST20213163183.8466.6375.2350000.660.66FF51.84696.84223452.1577439607100.973601749655569852515160DRYH
2021-08-08 00:00:05FORECAST20213163184.3564.8874.61500.01290.01290.320.3329FF52.35688.35223452.1577439607100.976515395359499852515160DRYH
2021-08-07 20:00:06FORECAST20213163184.3564.8874.61500.01290.01290.50.5129FF52.35704.35223452.1577439607100.976515395359499852515160DRYH
2021-08-07 16:00:06FORECAST20213163184.3864.8874.6300.01290.01290.480.4929FF52.38706.38223452.1577439607100.976678030625859852515160DRYH
2021-08-07 12:00:06FORECAST20213163182.4266.6874.550000.460.46FF50.42704.42223452.1577439607100.963867430716569852515160DRYH
2021-08-07 08:00:06FORECAST20213163182.6967.475.0450000.460.46FF50.69697.69223452.1577439607100.965915800916999852515160DRYH
2021-08-07 04:00:07FORECAST20213163182.767.3775.0350000.470.47FF50.7697.7223452.1577439607100.965989799415749852515160DRYH
2021-08-07 00:00:06FORECAST20213163182.4367.5975.010000.270.27FF50.43695.43223452.1577439607100.963945049122729852515160DRYH
2021-08-06 20:00:06FORECAST20213163182.3267.5474.930000.380.38FF50.32699.32223452.1577439607100.963083719618819852515160DRYH
2021-08-06 16:00:06FORECAST20213163182.2667.5474.90000.450.45FF50.26697.26223452.1577439607100.962606879261669852515160DRYH
2021-08-06 12:00:05FORECAST20213163182.4467.8675.150000.410.41FF50.44697.44223452.1577439607100.964022531329859852515160DRYH
2021-08-06 08:00:06FORECAST20213163182.4467.7475.090000.430.43FF50.44697.44223452.1577439607100.964022531329859852515160DRYH
2021-08-06 04:00:08FORECAST20213163181.8466.0973.9650000.480.48FF49.84694.84223452.1577439607100.959126904846549852515160DRYH
2021-08-06 00:00:06FORECAST20213163185.8468.2877.060000.470.47FF53.84700.84223452.1577439607100.983525796003949852515160DRYH
2021-08-05 20:00:06FORECAST20213163185.8968.6277.2550000.520.52FF53.89712.89223452.1577439607100.983726071772739852515160DRYH
2021-08-05 16:00:06FORECAST20213163185.8968.577.1950000.610.61FF53.89710.89223452.1577439607100.983726071772739852515160DRYH
2021-08-05 12:00:06FORECAST20213163174.0265.5869.80000.610.61FF42.02699.02223452.1577439607100.83555547933659842515155DRYH
2021-08-05 08:00:06FORECAST20213163167.4766.5867.0250000.440.44FF35.47685.47223452.1577439607100.63210188396599832515225DRYL
2021-08-05 04:00:10FORECAST20213163167.4766.8867.1750000.420.42FF35.47686.47223452.1577439607100.63210188396599832515225DRYL