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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, August 10, 2021

[ Monday, August 9, 2021 | Index | Today | Wednesday, August 11, 2021 ]

DAY 314 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/11/2021 04:00:09 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 69.46°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 50.43°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 59.95°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.659
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 97 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 37
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 656

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.06 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.60 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.66 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 221
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 451.05 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 29

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 2
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 50.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-08-11 04:00:09OBSERVATION20213142969.4599850.4300259.945000.060.60.66FF37.45998656.45998221451.04588309528 00.6587778652512897 32515150DRYMH
2021-08-11 00:00:02FORECAST20213142961.5261.5261.52000.060.60.66FF29.52648.52222451.6028697945400.320866917981039722515222.5DRYL
2021-08-10 12:00:02FORECAST20213142971.2961.3966.3400.00230.06230.60.6623FF39.29658.29222451.6028697945400.729293056936259742515155DRYH
2021-08-10 08:00:03FORECAST20213142972.0253.7962.905000.060.60.66FF40.02659.02222451.6028697945400.755242697020869742515155DRYH
2021-08-10 04:00:07FORECAST20213142972.2852.2662.27000.060.60.66FF40.28659.28222451.6028697945400.764151268556749742515155DRYH
2021-08-10 00:00:05FORECAST20213142971.5652.1261.8400.0030.0630.60.663FF39.56647.56221451.0458830952800.739048382412299742515155DRYH
2021-08-09 20:00:03FORECAST20213142971.2953.6762.48000.060.60.66FF39.29660.29221451.0458830952800.729293056936259742515155DRYH
2021-08-09 16:00:03FORECAST20213142971.7954.6663.225000.060.60.66FF39.79660.79221451.0458830952800.747213717293219742515155DRYH
2021-08-09 12:00:05FORECAST20213142971.485563.24000.060.60.66FF39.48660.48221451.0458830952800.73617684639759742515155DRYH
2021-08-09 08:00:03FORECAST20213142971.3554.5462.945000.060.60.66FF39.35660.35221451.0458830952800.731476526969399742515155DRYH
2021-08-09 04:00:07FORECAST20213142970.8555.1863.015000.060.60.66FF38.85659.85221451.0458830952800.713015467632459742515155DRYH
2021-08-09 00:00:04FORECAST20213142971.0655.3663.210000.60.6FF39.06659.06221451.0458830952800.720841927978369742515155DRYH
2021-08-08 20:00:02FORECAST20213142970.7855.4663.12000.020.60.62FF38.78669.78221451.0458830952800.710383767768159742515155DRYH
2021-08-08 16:00:03FORECAST20213142971.0655.3763.215000.020.60.62FF39.06670.06221451.0458830952800.720841927978369742515155DRYH
2021-08-08 12:00:05FORECAST20213142971.4255.3663.39000.020.60.62FF39.42670.42221451.0458830952800.734012684413649742515155DRYH
2021-08-08 08:00:03FORECAST20213142971.3255.3863.35000.030.60.63FF39.32664.32221451.0458830952800.730385897961589742515155DRYH
2021-08-08 04:00:07FORECAST20213142971.6255.2363.425000.060.60.66FF39.62669.62221451.0458830952800.741191452088189742515155DRYH
2021-08-08 00:00:05FORECAST20213142972.5355.8164.17000.080.240.32FF40.53659.53221451.0458830952800.772546138467719742515155DRYH
2021-08-07 20:00:05FORECAST20213142975.0556.265.625000.10.40.5FF43.05676.05221451.0458830952800.8472987443539497425251110DRYVH
2021-08-07 16:00:06FORECAST20213142976.1356.5666.345000.080.40.48FF44.13678.13221451.0458830952800.873682273396159752515160DRYH
2021-08-07 12:00:05FORECAST20213142976.9756.3166.64000.060.40.46FF44.97677.97221451.0458830952800.891882755578169752515160DRYH
2021-08-07 08:00:06FORECAST20213142977.4655.5366.495000.050.410.46FF45.46674.46221451.0458830952800.901588081152779752515160DRYH
2021-08-07 04:00:07FORECAST20213142977.5255.5466.53000.050.420.47FF45.52670.52221451.0458830952800.902731333224469752515160DRYH
2021-08-07 00:00:05FORECAST20213142975.2854.3864.83000.040.230.27FF43.28669.28221451.0458830952800.853202387640399752515160DRYH
2021-08-06 20:00:06FORECAST20213142974.453.6264.01000.040.340.38FF42.4673.4221451.0458830952800.829776595884649742515155DRYH
2021-08-06 16:00:06FORECAST20213142974.335464.165000.040.410.45FF42.33671.33221451.0458830952800.827815802716439742515155DRYH
2021-08-06 12:00:05FORECAST20213142972.652.9262.76000.040.370.41FF40.6670.6221451.0458830952800.774866233959829742515155DRYH
2021-08-06 08:00:06FORECAST20213142968.7653.3161.035000.050.380.43FF36.76670.76221451.0458830952800.630071406121319732515150DRYMH
2021-08-06 04:00:08FORECAST20213142968.7753.3161.04000.050.430.48FF36.77669.77221451.0458830952800.630487111101599732515150DRYMH
2021-08-06 00:00:06FORECAST20213142977.7355.4466.585000.040.430.47FF45.73668.73221451.0458830952800.90665621201939752515160DRYH
2021-08-05 20:00:06FORECAST20213142975.6852.8464.26000.070.450.52FF43.68681.68221451.0458830952800.863101425929639752515160DRYH
2021-08-05 16:00:06FORECAST20213142975.9954.3865.185000.050.560.61FF43.99679.99221451.0458830952800.870453171893249752515160DRYH
2021-08-05 12:00:06FORECAST20213142976.3153.6464.975000.050.560.61FF44.31681.31221451.0458830952800.87775120879752515160DRYH
2021-08-05 08:00:06FORECAST20213142977.3154.3965.85000.060.380.44FF45.31674.31221451.0458830952800.898687108730169752515160DRYH
2021-08-05 04:00:09FORECAST20213142977.3154.3965.85000.050.370.42FF45.31675.31221451.0458830952800.898687108730169752515160DRYH
2021-08-05 00:00:06FORECAST20213142973.8654.9764.415000.070.340.41FF41.86658.86221451.0458830952800.814280423813049742515155DRYH
2021-08-04 20:00:06FORECAST20213142973.9154.3764.14000.060.40.46FF41.91670.91221451.0458830952800.815750887869989742515155DRYH
2021-08-04 16:00:06FORECAST20213142973.9254.3764.145000.070.390.46FF41.92672.92221451.0458830952800.816044110890559742515155DRYH
2021-08-04 12:00:06FORECAST20213142975.1754.5864.875000.020.320.34FF43.17683.17221451.0458830952800.850398226524059752515160DRYH
2021-08-04 08:00:06FORECAST20213142972.5652.4762.515000.030.410.44FF40.56668.56221451.0458830952800.773542107434619742515155DRYH
2021-08-04 04:00:08FORECAST20213142972.4952.4862.485000.030.410.44FF40.49669.49221451.0458830952800.771214356796839742515155DRYH
2021-08-04 00:00:06FORECAST20213142977.1654.465.78000.030.260.29FF45.16667.16221451.0458830952800.895724533350519752515160DRYH
2021-08-03 20:00:06FORECAST20213142976.1953.9965.09000.020.330.35FF44.19684.19221451.0458830952800.875048910461829752515160DRYH
2021-08-03 16:00:06FORECAST20213142974.835464.415000.020.360.38FF42.83682.83221451.0458830952800.841506780802379742515155DRYH
2021-08-03 12:00:06FORECAST20213142961.8852.8757.375000.080.430.51FF29.88660.88221451.0458830952800.335189063064679722515222.5DRYL
2021-08-03 08:00:06FORECAST20213142956.7954.0355.41000.060.520.58FF24.79646.79221451.0458830952800.161987941508989712515220DRYL
2021-08-03 04:00:07FORECAST20213142956.6655.8656.26000.060.590.65FF24.66643.66221451.0458830952800.158498657935969712515220DRYL