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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, August 1, 2021

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DAY 305 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/02/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 71.10°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 58.41°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 64.75°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.752 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 39 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 609 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.04 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.03 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.07 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 212 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 445.94 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 20 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 4 D₁: 2 D₂: 5 D₃: 1 D₄: 5 D₅: 1 HS_dry: 55.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-08-02 04:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	305	20	71.09996	58.40996	64.75496	0	0.04	0.03	0.07	F	F	39.09996	609.09996	212	445.9366015751	0.7522740549806	93	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-08-02 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	305	20	59.14	59.14	59.14	0	0.04	0.03	0.07	F	F	27.14	597.14	213	446.51296670182	0.25852888607463	93	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-08-01 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	305	20	69.32	59.97	64.645	0.0064	0.0464	0.03	0.0764	F	F	37.32	607.32	213	446.51296670182	0.68572774358615	93	3	2	5	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-08-01 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	305	20	69.27	59.86	64.565	0.0127	0.0527	0.03	0.0827	F	F	37.27	607.27	213	446.51296670182	0.68375249420788	93	3	2	5	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-08-01 04:00:10	FORECAST	2021	305	20	69.29	60.03	64.66	0.0313	0.0713	0.03	0.1013	F	F	37.29	607.29	213	446.51296670182	0.68454322697172	93	3	2	5	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-08-01 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	305	20	69.78	60.67	65.225	0.05	0.05	0.03	0.08	F	F	37.78	602.78	212	445.9366015751	0.70364552514221	93	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-31 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	305	20	70.02	60.54	65.28	0.0322	0.0822	0.03	0.1122	F	F	38.02	607.02	212	445.9366015751	0.71280428117722	93	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-31 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	305	20	69.92	60.32	65.12	0.0913	0.1413	0.03	0.1713	F	F	37.92	606.92	212	445.9366015751	0.70900441271923	93	4	2	5	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2021-07-31 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	305	20	69.83	60.69	65.26	0.142	0.192	0.03	0.222	F	F	37.83	606.83	212	445.9366015751	0.70556459936915	93	4	2	5	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2021-07-31 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	305	20	68.98	60.35	64.665	0.1897	0.2397	0.03	0.2697	F	F	36.98	605.98	212	445.9366015751	0.67219395937518	93	3	2	5	2	5	1	100	DRY	VH
2021-07-31 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	305	20	69.22	60.51	64.865	0.1545	0.2045	0.03	0.2345	F	F	37.22	607.22	212	445.9366015751	0.68177199165017	93	3	2	5	2	5	1	100	DRY	VH
2021-07-31 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	305	20	68.71	59.9	64.305	0.1511	0.1811	0.03	0.2111	F	F	36.71	595.71	212	445.9366015751	0.66128201631183	93	3	2	4	2	5	1	90	DRY	VH
2021-07-30 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	305	20	68.83	60.22	64.525	0.0847	0.1447	0.03	0.1747	F	F	36.83	603.83	212	445.9366015751	0.66614916469771	93	3	2	5	2	5	1	100	DRY	VH
2021-07-30 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	305	20	68.98	60.1	64.54	0.1102	0.1202	0.03	0.1502	F	F	36.98	604.98	212	445.9366015751	0.67219395937518	93	3	2	5	2	5	1	100	DRY	VH
2021-07-30 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	305	20	69.26	59.6	64.43	0.0396	0.0596	0.03	0.0896	F	F	37.26	605.26	212	445.9366015751	0.6833568124451	93	3	2	5	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-30 08:00:04	FORECAST	2021	305	20	68.8	59.21	64.005	0.0289	0.0489	0.03	0.0789	F	F	36.8	601.8	212	445.9366015751	0.66493495402764	93	3	2	5	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-30 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	305	20	68.93	60.1	64.515	0.008	0.018	0.03	0.048	F	F	36.93	601.93	212	445.9366015751	0.67018393421371	93	3	2	5	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-30 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	305	20	65.82	59.08	62.45	0.14	0.17	0.03	0.2	F	F	33.82	591.82	212	445.9366015751	0.53772397683562	93	3	2	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2021-07-29 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	305	20	65.76	56.53	61.145	0.5222	0.5522	0.03	0.5822	F	F	33.76	597.76	212	445.9366015751	0.53507420922397	93	3	2	4	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2021-07-29 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	305	20	65.85	57.16	61.505	0.5399	0.5799	0.03	0.6099	F	F	33.85	598.85	212	445.9366015751	0.53904824052607	93	3	2	4	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2021-07-29 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	305	20	66.37	56.71	61.54	0.457	0.477	0.03	0.507	F	F	34.37	597.37	212	445.9366015751	0.56192081278269	93	3	2	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2021-07-29 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	305	20	65.92	56.93	61.425	0.0672	0.0872	0.03	0.1172	F	F	33.92	605.92	212	445.9366015751	0.54213648057477	93	3	2	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2021-07-29 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	305	20	65.75	56.92	61.335	0.0641	0.0841	0.03	0.1141	F	F	33.75	602.75	212	445.9366015751	0.53463242683011	93	3	2	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2021-07-29 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	305	20	70.29	58.99	64.64	0.0183	0.0483	0.03	0.0783	F	F	38.29	598.29	212	445.9366015751	0.72294503199026	93	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-28 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	305	20	69.43	58.45	63.94	0.0617	0.1217	0.03	0.1517	F	F	37.43	612.43	212	445.9366015751	0.69005457106169	93	3	2	5	2	5	1	100	DRY	VH
2021-07-28 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	305	20	69.45	58.4	63.925	0.0629	0.0929	0.03	0.1229	F	F	37.45	614.45	212	445.9366015751	0.69083847254848	93	3	2	5	2	5	1	100	DRY	VH
2021-07-28 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	305	20	69.31	57.55	63.43	0.0748	0.0948	0.03	0.1248	F	F	37.31	611.31	212	445.9366015751	0.68533311621782	93	3	2	5	2	5	1	100	DRY	VH
2021-07-28 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	305	20	64.12	56.93	60.525	0.0647	0.0847	0.03	0.1147	F	F	32.12	613.12	212	445.9366015751	0.46244510851603	93	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2021-07-28 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	305	20	64.06	56.84	60.45	0.0648	0.0848	0.03	0.1148	F	F	32.06	613.06	212	445.9366015751	0.45979690372119	93	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2021-07-28 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	305	20	69.61	59.01	64.31	0.0334	0.1034	0.03	0.1334	F	F	37.61	605.61	212	445.9366015751	0.69707822575851	93	3	2	5	2	5	1	100	DRY	VH
2021-07-27 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	305	20	74.33	60.88	67.605	0.0164	0.0764	0.03	0.1064	F	F	42.33	628.33	212	445.9366015751	0.85103726042148	93	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-27 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	305	20	74.37	60.7	67.535	0.0199	0.1099	0.03	0.1399	F	F	42.37	630.37	212	445.9366015751	0.85206771990323	93	5	2	5	2	5	1	120	DRY	VH
2021-07-27 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	305	20	72.06	58.52	65.29	0.0144	0.1044	0.03	0.1344	F	F	40.06	628.06	212	445.9366015751	0.78477172497043	93	4	2	5	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2021-07-27 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	305	20	72.75	59.45	66.1	0.0144	0.1244	0.03	0.1544	F	F	40.75	624.75	212	445.9366015751	0.8065196603798	93	4	2	5	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2021-07-27 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	305	20	72.77	59.45	66.11	0.0144	0.0644	0.03	0.0944	F	F	40.77	628.77	212	445.9366015751	0.80712940656086	93	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-27 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	305	20	72.54	57.78	65.16	0.0068	0.0768	0.03	0.1068	F	F	40.54	608.54	212	445.9366015751	0.80004672287763	93	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-26 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	305	20	74.79	59.58	67.185	0.0031	0.0631	0.03	0.0931	F	F	42.79	634.79	212	445.9366015751	0.86260001611249	93	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-26 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	305	20	74.82	59.59	67.205	0.0031	0.0631	0.03	0.0931	F	F	42.82	635.82	212	445.9366015751	0.86333227880684	93	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-26 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	305	20	76.47	57.74	67.105	0.0023	0.0323	0.03	0.0623	F	F	44.47	633.47	212	445.9366015751	0.89956562967605	93	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-26 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	305	20	76.52	57.8	67.16	0.0023	0.0223	0.03	0.0523	F	F	44.52	634.52	212	445.9366015751	0.90054236067949	93	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-26 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	305	20	76.08	58.3	67.19	0.0023	0.0223	0.03	0.0523	F	F	44.08	635.08	212	445.9366015751	0.8917069108715	93	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-26 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	305	20	79.23	63.88	71.555	0.0053	0.0353	0.03	0.0653	F	F	47.23	630.23	212	445.9366015751	0.94370218639824	93	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-25 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	305	20	79.94	63.87	71.905	0.0053	0.0353	0.03	0.0653	F	F	47.94	648.94	212	445.9366015751	0.95212624272389	93	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-25 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	305	20	77.31	63.86	70.585	0.0053	0.0353	0.03	0.0653	F	F	45.31	647.31	212	445.9366015751	0.91506718083378	93	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-25 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	305	20	66.61	54.78	60.695	0	0.09	0.03	0.12	F	F	34.61	617.61	212	445.9366015751	0.57241270667673	93	3	2	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2021-07-25 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	305	20	55.8	52.51	54.155	0	0.09	0.03	0.12	F	F	23.8	605.8	212	445.9366015751	0.15402368794515	93	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-07-25 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	305	20	55.81	53.14	54.475	0	0.09	0.03	0.12	F	F	23.81	603.81	212	445.9366015751	0.15428783262282	93	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L