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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, July 31, 2021

[ Friday, July 30, 2021 | Index | Today | Sunday, August 1, 2021 ]

DAY 304 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/01/2021 04:00:10 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 75.80°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 66.16°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 70.98°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.875
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 96 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 44
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 604

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.04 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.04 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.03 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.07 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 211
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 445.36 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 19

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 2
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-08-01 04:00:10OBSERVATION20213041975.7999466.1600470.9799900.0400000000000770.0400000000000770.030.070000000000077FF43.79994603.79994211445.35804209427 00.8749770174450396 52515160DRYH
2021-08-01 00:00:03FORECAST20213041970.6470.6470.6400.00350.00350.030.0335FF38.64598.64212445.936601575100.732936032500799642415150DRYMH
2021-07-31 12:00:02FORECAST20213041975.4165.170.25500.04980.04980.030.0798FF43.41603.41212445.936601575100.866559393679859652515160DRYH
2021-07-31 08:00:03FORECAST20213041974.7164.4469.57500.04660.04660.030.0766FF42.71602.71212445.936601575100.8504916674069652515160DRYH
2021-07-31 04:00:07FORECAST20213041975.7865.6370.70500.05140.05140.030.0814FF43.78603.78212445.936601575100.874555755753789652515160DRYH
2021-07-31 00:00:05FORECAST20213041975.2966.2970.7900.02920.02920.030.0592FF43.29593.29211445.3580420942700.863892495577319652415155DRYH
2021-07-30 20:00:03FORECAST20213041975.0665.6470.3500.05130.06130.030.0913FF43.06601.06211445.3580420942700.858679840419349652515160DRYH
2021-07-30 16:00:03FORECAST20213041975.6266.2270.9200.00460.01460.030.0446FF43.62601.62211445.3580420942700.871139752756819652515160DRYH
2021-07-30 12:00:06FORECAST20213041976.1366.2971.2100.00550.01550.030.0455FF44.13602.13211445.3580420942700.881807199594119652515160DRYH
2021-07-30 08:00:03FORECAST20213041974.4666.1270.2900.01250.02250.030.0525FF42.46599.46211445.3580420942700.844453337150059642515155DRYH
2021-07-30 04:00:07FORECAST20213041974.3666.0370.19500.01210.01210.030.0421FF42.36599.36211445.3580420942700.841993692799339642515155DRYH
2021-07-30 00:00:06FORECAST20213041977.7165.3671.53500.01340.03340.030.0634FF45.71591.71211445.3580420942700.910862241480519652415155DRYH
2021-07-29 20:00:05FORECAST20213041977.9366.4172.1700.01090.03090.030.0609FF45.93597.93211445.3580420942700.914445899572119652415155DRYH
2021-07-29 16:00:06FORECAST20213041978.7766.1772.4700.01790.03790.030.0679FF46.77598.77211445.3580420942700.927143498474389652415155DRYH
2021-07-29 12:00:06FORECAST20213041977.6266.4272.0200.01390.02390.030.0539FF45.62596.62211445.3580420942700.909364535745179652415155DRYH
2021-07-29 08:00:06FORECAST20213041979.4766.1172.7900.01260.02260.030.0526FF47.47606.47211445.3580420942700.936581616913599652515160DRYH
2021-07-29 04:00:07FORECAST20213041978.8265.8272.3200.01240.02240.030.0524FF46.82602.82211445.3580420942700.927851326636999652515160DRYH
2021-07-29 00:00:05FORECAST20213041980.565.6173.05500.02280.03280.030.0628FF48.5593.5211445.3580420942700.948709904562799652415155DRYH
2021-07-28 20:00:05FORECAST20213041983.9565.9574.9500.04170.06170.030.0917FF51.95608.95211445.3580420942700.976550319720829652515160DRYH
2021-07-28 16:00:06FORECAST20213041985.6566.2975.9700.01180.03180.030.0618FF53.65610.65211445.3580420942700.984699978037179652515160DRYH
2021-07-28 12:00:06FORECAST20213041985.4565.175.27500.01110.02110.030.0511FF53.45608.45211445.3580420942700.983888652824999652515160DRYH
2021-07-28 08:00:06FORECAST20213041984.665.3974.99500.00540.01540.030.0454FF52.6614.6211445.3580420942700.980017682060979652515160DRYH
2021-07-28 04:00:08FORECAST20213041985.1665.3975.27500.01160.02160.030.0516FF53.16615.16211445.3580420942700.982647027354239652515160DRYH
2021-07-28 00:00:06FORECAST20213041985.1966.1775.6800.03720.06720.030.0972FF53.19602.19211445.3580420942700.982779144731819652515160DRYH
2021-07-27 20:00:06FORECAST20213041985.2565.4275.33500.03570.05570.030.0857FF53.25620.25211445.3580420942700.983040807753569652515160DRYH
2021-07-27 16:00:06FORECAST20213041985.7366.4276.07500.03730.08730.030.1173FF53.73621.73211445.3580420942700.985014560855289652515160DRYH
2021-07-27 12:00:05FORECAST20213041985.4465.5675.500.04380.09380.030.1238FF53.44622.44211445.3580420942700.9838471383172196525251120DRYVH
2021-07-27 08:00:05FORECAST20213041985.565.7875.6400.04360.11360.030.1436FF53.5617.5211445.3580420942700.9840948590661996525251120DRYVH
2021-07-27 04:00:08FORECAST20213041985.5465.7875.6600.04360.05360.030.0836FF53.54621.54211445.3580420942700.984258193853659652515160DRYH
2021-07-27 00:00:06FORECAST20213041983.2365.8574.5400.03780.06780.030.0978FF51.23602.23211445.3580420942700.972133748051929652515160DRYH
2021-07-26 20:00:06FORECAST20213041984.5164.574.50500.0270.0570.030.087FF52.51625.51211445.3580420942700.979565129254439652515160DRYH
2021-07-26 16:00:06FORECAST20213041984.5464.5174.52500.0270.0570.030.087FF52.54626.54211445.3580420942700.979716933667939652515160DRYH
2021-07-26 12:00:05FORECAST20213041983.6765.474.53500.01830.02830.030.0583FF51.67622.67211445.3580420942700.974908059249039652515160DRYH
2021-07-26 08:00:06FORECAST20213041982.8665.3174.08500.01380.02380.030.0538FF50.86623.86211445.3580420942700.96960776915929652515160DRYH
2021-07-26 04:00:07FORECAST20213041982.9664.0473.500.01290.02290.030.0529FF50.96624.96211445.3580420942700.970308442900239652515160DRYH
2021-07-26 00:00:06FORECAST20213041986.5764.3775.4700.02990.02990.030.0599FF54.57616.57211445.3580420942700.98799617703729652515160DRYH
2021-07-25 20:00:05FORECAST2021304198664.6575.32500.030.030.030.06FF54635211445.3580420942700.9860356336169652515160DRYH
2021-07-25 16:00:06FORECAST20213041986.4564.6875.56500.030.030.030.06FF54.45636.45211445.3580420942700.987604490054829652515160DRYH
2021-07-25 12:00:06FORECAST20213041977.4259.8968.655000.090.030.12FF45.42617.42211445.3580420942700.905969797249479652515160DRYH
2021-07-25 08:00:05FORECAST20213041975.8957.3266.605000.090.030.12FF43.89615.89211445.3580420942700.876867389743629652515160DRYH
2021-07-25 04:00:08FORECAST20213041975.957.3366.615000.090.030.12FF43.9613.9211445.3580420942700.877076052594769652515160DRYH
2021-07-25 00:00:06FORECAST20213041985.8464.375.0700.02510.05510.030.0851FF53.84628.84211445.3580420942700.98543803903619652515160DRYH
2021-07-24 20:00:05FORECAST20213041981.2862.9372.10500.02510.05510.030.0851FF49.28645.28211445.3580420942700.956608199387349652515160DRYH
2021-07-24 16:00:06FORECAST20213041981.5262.872.1600.02510.05510.030.0851FF49.52648.52211445.3580420942700.958831125883019652515160DRYH
2021-07-24 12:00:05FORECAST20213041976.156269.0750000.030.03FF44.15633.15211445.3580420942700.882212452547419652515160DRYH
2021-07-24 08:00:06FORECAST20213041962.8261.362.060000.030.03FF30.82622.82211445.3580420942700.429030142436299622515222.5DRYL
2021-07-24 04:00:07FORECAST20213041962.2761.4761.870000.030.03FF30.27622.27211445.3580420942700.407046836999649622515222.5DRYL