Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, July 30, 2021

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DAY 303 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/31/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 83.40°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 67.83°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 75.62°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.974 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 97 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 51 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 598 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.03 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.03 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 210 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 444.78 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 18 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 5 D1: 2 D2: 4 D3: 1 D4: 5 D5: 1 HSdry: 55.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-07-31 04:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	303	18	83.40008	67.83008	75.61508	0	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	51.40008	598.40008	210	444.77727990492	0	0.97374569051545	97	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-31 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	303	18	72.71	72.71	72.71	0	0.0007	0.0007	0.03	0.0307	F	F	40.71	587.71	211	445.35804209427	0	0.80085928532561	97	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-30 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	303	18	80.93	68.68	74.805	0	0.0081	0.0081	0.03	0.0381	F	F	48.93	595.93	211	445.35804209427	0	0.95406273876649	97	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-30 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	303	18	80.17	68.07	74.12	0	0.0063	0.0063	0.03	0.0363	F	F	48.17	595.17	211	445.35804209427	0	0.94605064904308	97	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-30 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	303	18	79.91	63	71.455	0	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	47.91	594.91	211	445.35804209427	0	0.94306942728727	97	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-30 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	303	18	79.53	63.79	71.66	0	0.023	0.023	0.03	0.053	F	F	47.53	583.53	210	444.77727990492	0	0.93848153706248	97	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-29 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	303	18	79.35	63.37	71.36	0	0.0222	0.0222	0.03	0.0522	F	F	47.35	590.35	210	444.77727990492	0	0.93621022542182	97	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-29 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	303	18	79.13	63.61	71.37	0	0.0202	0.0202	0.03	0.0502	F	F	47.13	590.13	210	444.77727990492	0	0.9333465175905	97	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-29 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	303	18	78.39	62.26	70.325	0	0.0076	0.0076	0.03	0.0376	F	F	46.39	589.39	210	444.77727990492	0	0.92298336191841	97	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-29 08:00:04	FORECAST	2021	303	18	82.79	63.23	73.01	0	0.0115	0.0115	0.03	0.0415	F	F	50.79	596.79	210	444.77727990492	0	0.96969532070603	97	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-29 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	303	18	83.36	63.47	73.415	0	0.0116	0.0116	0.03	0.0416	F	F	51.36	594.36	210	444.77727990492	0	0.97349421335185	97	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-29 00:00:04	FORECAST	2021	303	18	82.93	63.13	73.03	0	0.0149	0.0149	0.03	0.0449	F	F	50.93	582.93	210	444.77727990492	0	0.97066775749691	97	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-28 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	303	18	82.7	63.98	73.34	0	0.0224	0.0224	0.03	0.0524	F	F	50.7	594.7	210	444.77727990492	0	0.9690562259957	97	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-28 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	303	18	83.43	63.81	73.62	0	0.0151	0.0151	0.03	0.0451	F	F	51.43	595.43	210	444.77727990492	0	0.97393212033538	97	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-28 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	303	18	84.37	63.48	73.925	0	0.0124	0.0124	0.03	0.0424	F	F	52.37	593.37	210	444.77727990492	0	0.97925063423239	97	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-28 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	303	18	84.35	63.72	74.035	0	0.0079	0.0079	0.03	0.0379	F	F	52.35	600.35	210	444.77727990492	0	0.97914783534177	97	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-28 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	303	18	84.29	63.82	74.055	0	0.0079	0.0079	0.03	0.0379	F	F	52.29	600.29	210	444.77727990492	0	0.97883685411764	97	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-28 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	303	18	82.89	63.66	73.275	0	0.0344	0.0344	0.03	0.0644	F	F	50.89	586.89	210	444.77727990492	0	0.97039259204612	97	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-27 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	303	18	85.54	63.46	74.5	0	0.0169	0.0169	0.03	0.0469	F	F	53.54	604.54	210	444.77727990492	0	0.98456265885875	97	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-27 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	303	18	85.24	63.8	74.52	0	0.0531	0.0531	0.03	0.0831	F	F	53.24	606.24	210	444.77727990492	0	0.98332586407188	97	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-27 12:00:04	FORECAST	2021	303	18	86.57	63.05	74.81	0	0.0515	0.0515	0.03	0.0815	F	F	54.57	606.57	210	444.77727990492	0	0.98822900592135	97	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-27 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	303	18	81.73	62.43	72.08	0	0.067	0.067	0.03	0.097	F	F	49.73	601.73	210	444.77727990492	0	0.96143672261262	97	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-27 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	303	18	87.17	62.62	74.895	0	0.0143	0.0143	0.03	0.0443	F	F	55.17	606.17	210	444.77727990492	0	0.98999586062058	97	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-27 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	303	18	84.98	62.5	73.74	0	0.0305	0.0305	0.03	0.0605	F	F	52.98	588.98	210	444.77727990492	0	0.98218646585403	97	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-26 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	303	18	85.01	60.37	72.69	0	0.0316	0.0316	0.03	0.0616	F	F	53.01	611.01	210	444.77727990492	0	0.98232123033574	97	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-26 16:00:05	FORECAST	2021	303	18	85.2	62.95	74.075	0	0.0335	0.0335	0.03	0.0635	F	F	53.2	612.2	210	444.77727990492	0	0.98315473062659	97	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-26 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	303	18	82.97	62.05	72.51	0	0.0092	0.0092	0.03	0.0392	F	F	50.97	608.97	210	444.77727990492	0	0.9709408016766	97	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-26 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	303	18	79.94	61.8	70.87	0	0.0092	0.0092	0.03	0.0392	F	F	47.94	610.94	210	444.77727990492	0	0.94341987491063	97	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-26 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	303	18	81.14	61.27	71.205	0	0.0142	0.0142	0.03	0.0442	F	F	49.14	612.14	210	444.77727990492	0	0.95609985390509	97	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-26 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	303	18	83.06	60.53	71.795	0	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	51.06	600.06	210	444.77727990492	0	0.97154745591291	97	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-25 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	303	18	84.34	58.86	71.6	0	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	52.34	619.34	210	444.77727990492	0	0.97909627478513	97	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-25 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	303	18	84.41	58.87	71.64	0	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	52.41	620.41	210	444.77727990492	0	0.97945494785221	97	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-25 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	303	18	77.16	60.66	68.91	0	0.092	0.092	0.03	0.122	F	F	45.16	610.16	210	444.77727990492	0	0.90312506704464	97	5	2	5	2	5	1	120	DRY	VH
2021-07-25 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	303	18	77.52	60.36	68.94	0	0.0923	0.0923	0.03	0.1223	F	F	45.52	609.52	210	444.77727990492	0	0.90929009943598	97	5	2	5	2	5	1	120	DRY	VH
2021-07-25 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	303	18	77.58	60.37	68.975	0	0.0923	0.0923	0.03	0.1223	F	F	45.58	607.58	210	444.77727990492	0	0.91028874164071	97	5	2	5	2	5	1	120	DRY	VH
2021-07-25 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	303	18	87.41	62.29	74.85	0	0.0292	0.0292	0.03	0.0592	F	F	55.41	613.41	210	444.77727990492	0	0.99063504611469	97	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-24 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	303	18	88.67	63.97	76.32	0	0.0292	0.0292	0.03	0.0592	F	F	56.67	633.67	210	444.77727990492	0	0.99343835348683	97	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-24 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	303	18	88.87	63.69	76.28	0	0.0292	0.0292	0.03	0.0592	F	F	56.87	636.87	210	444.77727990492	0	0.99380732500774	97	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-24 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	303	18	84.75	60.95	72.85	0	0.0002	0.0002	0.03	0.0302	F	F	52.75	626.75	210	444.77727990492	0	0.98112392657506	97	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-24 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	303	18	85.56	62.33	73.945	0	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	53.56	629.56	210	444.77727990492	0	0.98464224079273	97	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-24 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	303	18	85.48	62.27	73.875	0	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	53.48	630.48	210	444.77727990492	0	0.98432178933229	97	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-24 00:00:07	FORECAST	2021	303	18	84.29	61.07	72.68	0	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	52.29	622.29	210	444.77727990492	0	0.97883685411764	97	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-23 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	303	18	83.84	61.08	72.46	0	0	0	0.04	0.04	F	F	51.84	631.84	210	444.77727990492	0	0.97637745882683	97	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-23 16:00:05	FORECAST	2021	303	18	84.48	61.24	72.86	0	0	0	0.04	0.04	F	F	52.48	632.48	210	444.77727990492	0	0.97980840477447	97	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-23 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	303	18	70.96	55.14	63.05	0	0	0	0.04	0.04	F	F	38.96	596.96	210	444.77727990492	0	0.747276027316	97	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-23 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	303	18	59.89	58.16	59.025	0	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	27.89	598.89	210	444.77727990492	0	0.32114294520383	97	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-07-23 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	303	18	58.82	58.23	58.525	0	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	26.82	607.82	210	444.77727990492	0	0.2830596421868	97	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L