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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, July 25, 2021

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DAY 298 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/26/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 68.62°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 52.83°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 60.72°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.654 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 96 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 37 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 561 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.03 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.03 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 205 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 441.84 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 13 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 3 D₁: 2 D₂: 4 D₃: 1 D₄: 5 D₅: 1 HS_dry: 45.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-07-26 04:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	298	13	68.61992	52.82996	60.72494	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	36.61992	560.61992	205	441.84013369272	0.65354324899609	96	3	2	4	1	5	1	45	DRY	M
2021-07-26 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	298	13	53.89	53.89	53.89	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	21.89	545.89	206	442.43203585831	0.10391166824519	96	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2021-07-25 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	298	13	70.84	55.63	63.235	0.0002	0.0002	0.03	0.0302	F	F	38.84	562.84	206	442.43203585831	0.7402816392201	96	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-25 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	298	13	70.82	54.92	62.87	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	38.82	562.82	206	442.43203585831	0.73955295582911	96	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-25 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	298	13	69.93	53.61	61.77	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	37.93	561.93	206	442.43203585831	0.70609736735056	96	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-25 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	298	13	71.78	55.01	63.395	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	39.78	551.78	205	441.84013369272	0.77330864952584	96	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-24 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	298	13	71.85	53.21	62.53	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	39.85	567.85	205	441.84013369272	0.77566969492931	96	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-24 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	298	13	72.39	53.88	63.135	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	40.39	568.39	205	441.84013369272	0.79340863009206	96	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-24 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	298	13	69.71	55.63	62.67	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	37.71	565.71	205	441.84013369272	0.69753143698417	96	3	2	4	1	5	1	45	DRY	M
2021-07-24 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	298	13	73.31	55.56	64.435	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	41.31	569.31	205	441.84013369272	0.82164685496315	96	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-24 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	298	13	72.48	55.6	64.04	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	40.48	565.48	205	441.84013369272	0.79628235062293	96	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-24 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	298	13	72.68	55.99	64.335	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	40.68	560.68	205	441.84013369272	0.80258263266898	96	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-23 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	298	13	72.54	55.83	64.185	0	0.01	0.03	0.04	F	F	40.54	568.54	205	441.84013369272	0.79818488177029	96	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-23 16:00:05	FORECAST	2021	298	13	72.44	55.63	64.035	0	0.01	0.03	0.04	F	F	40.44	568.44	205	441.84013369272	0.79500808893854	96	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-23 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	298	13	72.21	55.18	63.695	0	0.01	0.03	0.04	F	F	40.21	568.21	205	441.84013369272	0.78758981614268	96	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-23 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	298	13	71.98	55.15	63.565	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	39.98	567.98	205	441.84013369272	0.7800173102507	96	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-23 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	298	13	72.82	55.27	64.045	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	40.82	572.82	205	441.84013369272	0.8069220493286	96	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-23 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	298	13	72.02	55.08	63.55	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	40.02	557.02	205	441.84013369272	0.78134526555932	96	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-22 20:07:03	FORECAST	2021	298	13	74.92	54.71	64.815	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	42.92	577.92	205	441.84013369272	0.86489702444471	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-22 20:04:00	FORECAST	2021	298	13	74.92	54.71	64.815	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	42.92	577.92	205	441.84013369272	0.86489702444471	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-22 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	298	13	74.92	54.71	64.815	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	42.92	577.92	205	441.84013369272	0.86489702444471	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-22 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	298	13	73.89	54.8	64.345	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	41.89	576.89	205	441.84013369272	0.83813671057908	96	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-22 12:00:04	FORECAST	2021	298	13	75.45	54.66	65.055	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	43.45	578.45	205	441.84013369272	0.87741683929873	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-22 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	298	13	71.03	55.54	63.285	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	39.03	575.03	205	441.84013369272	0.7471513554866	96	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-22 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	298	13	75.67	55.53	65.6	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	43.67	579.67	205	441.84013369272	0.88236764206177	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-22 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	298	13	75.64	54.21	64.925	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	43.64	565.64	205	441.84013369272	0.88170096772878	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-21 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	298	13	74.91	51.93	63.42	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	42.91	580.91	205	441.84013369272	0.86465268860236	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-21 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	298	13	74.97	54.03	64.5	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	42.97	584.97	205	441.84013369272	0.86611417859598	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-21 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	298	13	74.84	53.44	64.14	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	42.84	583.84	205	441.84013369272	0.86293388311431	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-21 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	298	13	70.57	53.38	61.975	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	38.57	578.57	205	441.84013369272	0.73035652730863	96	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-21 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	298	13	70.57	53.38	61.975	0	0	0.04	0.04	F	F	38.57	583.57	205	441.84013369272	0.73035652730863	96	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-21 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	298	13	74.78	54.16	64.47	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	42.78	568.78	205	441.84013369272	0.86144883409731	96	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-20 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	298	13	74.14	51.19	62.665	0	0	0.05	0.05	F	F	42.14	593.14	205	441.84013369272	0.84492856815216	96	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-20 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	298	13	73.91	51.18	62.545	0	0	0.05	0.05	F	F	41.91	594.91	205	441.84013369272	0.83868706819606	96	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-20 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	298	13	71.86	52.11	61.985	0	0	0.05	0.05	F	F	39.86	589.86	205	441.84013369272	0.77600584588582	96	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-20 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	298	13	72.76	52.84	62.8	0	0	0.04	0.04	F	F	40.76	587.76	205	441.84013369272	0.80506946109206	96	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-20 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	298	13	72.77	52.84	62.805	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	40.77	593.77	205	441.84013369272	0.80537897257908	96	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-20 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	298	13	71.25	51.84	61.545	0	0	0.04	0.04	F	F	39.25	572.25	205	441.84013369272	0.75498480570018	96	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-19 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	298	13	72.96	53.8	63.38	0	0	0.04	0.04	F	F	40.96	594.96	205	441.84013369272	0.81120285037843	96	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-19 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	298	13	73.97	53.34	63.655	0	0	0.04	0.04	F	F	41.97	594.97	205	441.84013369272	0.84033082770564	96	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-19 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	298	13	72.28	51.81	62.045	0	0	0.05	0.05	F	F	40.28	587.28	205	441.84013369272	0.7898639609688	96	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-19 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	298	13	72.28	51.8	62.04	0	0	0.04	0.04	F	F	40.28	591.28	205	441.84013369272	0.7898639609688	96	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-19 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	298	13	73.2	51.48	62.34	0	0	0.04	0.04	F	F	41.2	587.2	205	441.84013369272	0.81840429488275	96	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-19 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	298	13	68.41	49.36	58.885	0	0	0.04	0.04	F	F	36.41	579.41	205	441.84013369272	0.6448048852279	96	3	2	4	1	5	1	45	DRY	M
2021-07-18 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	298	13	67.31	48.1	57.705	0	0	0.06	0.06	F	F	35.31	588.31	205	441.84013369272	0.59786026931679	96	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2021-07-18 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	298	13	69.83	49.06	59.445	0	0	0.07	0.07	F	F	37.83	591.83	205	441.84013369272	0.70221765144088	96	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-18 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	298	13	59.39	50.13	54.76	0.0193	0.0493	0.08	0.1293	F	F	27.39	573.39	205	441.84013369272	0.26058613916533	96	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-07-18 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	298	13	52.11	50.51	51.31	0.0165	0.0465	0.03	0.0765	F	F	20.11	566.11	205	441.84013369272	0.072163997331865	96	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2021-07-18 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	298	13	51.86	50.36	51.11	0.0073	0.0373	0.03	0.0673	F	F	19.86	563.86	205	441.84013369272	0.068374423639422	96	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L