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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, July 20, 2021

[ Monday, July 19, 2021 | Index | Today | Wednesday, July 21, 2021 ]

DAY 293 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/21/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 58.98°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 42.68°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 50.83°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.313
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 95 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 27
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 577

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.03 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.03 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 200
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 441.95 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 8

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-07-21 04:00:07OBSERVATION2021293858.9800242.6799450.829987.7476879166667000.030.03FF26.98002576.98002200441.94608222932 3.42406032110620.3133416176908895 22413212DRYL
2021-07-21 00:00:03FORECAST2021293844.0644.0644.063.9340720.00010.00010.030.0301FF12.06562.06201441.025338967741.73502543732350.0177344885804349512414214DRYL
2021-07-20 12:00:03FORECAST2021293861.5546.7654.1554.321460.00670.00670.030.0367FF29.55579.55201441.179622307971.9065400906190.417396196926889522414216DRYL
2021-07-20 08:00:02FORECAST2021293862.2245.153.663.93299866666670.00970.00970.030.0397FF30.22580.22201441.0249112851.73455038805070.445860647432729522414216DRYL
2021-07-20 04:00:07FORECAST2021293862.3545.2553.83.23040516666670.00350.00350.030.0335FF30.35580.35201440.744704011361.42378396901930.451420845539639522414216DRYL
2021-07-20 00:00:06FORECAST2021293863.0946.7754.930.171109333333330.0010.0010.030.031FF31.09562.09200438.915760557120.0751025831784220.483220579435449522414216DRYL
2021-07-19 20:00:03FORECAST2021293862.6547.35552.22550266666670.00130.00130.030.0313FF30.65579.65200439.743204862070.978649675069080.464286701137789522414216DRYL
2021-07-19 16:00:02FORECAST2021293862.7947.1454.9652.21697466666670.00070.00070.030.0307FF30.79579.79200439.739778971650.974891949905740.470304403392379522414216DRYL
2021-07-19 12:00:06FORECAST2021293862.4546.5854.5150.238041333333330.00950.00950.030.0395FF30.45579.45200438.942786737840.104486526212120.455704473971669522414216DRYL
2021-07-19 08:00:06FORECAST2021293862.4446.7854.6100.00630.00630.030.0363FF30.44578.44200438.8466481739300.455275870979299522415220DRYL
2021-07-19 04:00:07FORECAST2021293862.5246.9754.74500.00690.00690.030.0369FF30.52578.52200438.8466481739300.458706110719689522415220DRYL
2021-07-19 00:00:06FORECAST2021293862.7746.9454.85500.00470.00470.030.0347FF30.77569.77200438.8466481739300.469444283981379522415220DRYL
2021-07-18 20:00:05FORECAST2021293861.6946.9454.31500.00660.01660.030.0466FF29.69580.69200438.8466481739300.423313474451259522415220DRYL
2021-07-18 16:00:05FORECAST2021293862.0346.1754.100.01440.02440.030.0544FF30.03582.03200438.8466481739300.437753616111589522415220DRYL
2021-07-18 12:00:06FORECAST2021293861.8746.3954.1300.01610.02610.030.0561FF29.87581.87200438.8466481739300.430946706588089522415220DRYL
2021-07-18 08:00:05FORECAST2021293861.246.9854.0900.00450.00450.030.0345FF29.2582.2200438.8466481739300.402687389561619522415220DRYL
2021-07-18 04:00:07FORECAST2021293861.0547.2254.13500.00230.00230.030.0323FF29.05581.05200438.8466481739300.396424241196999522415220DRYL
2021-07-18 00:00:05FORECAST2021293861.1946.9354.0600.00410.00410.030.0341FF29.19567.19200438.8466481739300.402269049277149522415220DRYL
2021-07-17 20:00:05FORECAST2021293862.6647.0454.8500.00510.00510.030.0351FF30.66583.66200438.8466481739300.464716282639769522415220DRYL
2021-07-17 16:00:06FORECAST2021293863.1147.5855.34500.00160.00160.030.0316FF31.11584.11200438.8466481739300.484082434975849522415220DRYL
2021-07-17 12:00:06FORECAST2021293860.2948.5454.41500.00050.00050.030.0305FF28.29581.29200438.8466481739300.365131175595379522415220DRYL
2021-07-17 08:00:05FORECAST2021293865.9248.6557.28500.00060.00060.030.0306FF33.92589.92200438.8466481739300.604061797014229532415222.5DRYL
2021-07-17 04:00:07FORECAST2021293865.7648.6557.2050000.030.03FF33.76589.76200438.8466481739300.597382341569419532415222.5DRYL
2021-07-17 00:00:06FORECAST2021293866.3647.7857.070000.040.04FF34.36587.36200438.8466481739300.622267983660669532415222.5DRYL
2021-07-16 20:00:06FORECAST2021293866.3847.7857.080000.050.05FF34.38603.38200438.8466481739300.623089458421339532515225DRYL
2021-07-16 16:00:06FORECAST2021293865.6949.6357.660000.040.04FF33.69602.69200438.8466481739300.59445099356859532515225DRYL
2021-07-16 12:00:06FORECAST2021293863.8449.4256.630000.050.05FF31.84595.84200438.8466481739300.515558436367449532415222.5DRYL
2021-07-16 08:00:05FORECAST2021293860.0447.9253.980000.060.06FF28.04579.04200438.8466481739300.355019363121089522415220DRYL
2021-07-16 04:00:07FORECAST2021293860.0547.9253.9850000.060.06FF28.05582.05200438.8466481739300.355421937623649522415220DRYL
2021-07-16 00:00:06FORECAST2021293861.9449.3355.6350000.010.01FF29.94576.94200438.8466481739300.433922329644879522415220DRYL
2021-07-15 20:00:06FORECAST2021293862.1748.7255.4450000.030.03FF30.17590.17200438.8466481739300.443724880416689522415220DRYL
2021-07-15 16:00:06FORECAST2021293862.1749.0455.6050000.020.02FF30.17592.17200438.8466481739300.443724880416689522415220DRYL
2021-07-15 12:00:06FORECAST2021293863.8149.856.80500.00030.00030.010.0103FF31.81588.81200438.8466481739300.514265470788729532415222.5DRYL
2021-07-15 08:00:06FORECAST2021293866.0249.985800.00030.000300.0003FF34.02586.02200438.8466481739300.608221131889439532415222.5DRYL
2021-07-15 04:00:07FORECAST2021293866.0249.9757.99500.00030.00030.010.0103FF34.02597.02200438.8466481739300.608221131889439532415222.5DRYL
2021-07-15 00:00:06FORECAST2021293866.8851.4559.16500000FF34.88578.88200438.8466481739300.643436560024069532415222.5DRYL
2021-07-14 20:00:06FORECAST2021293866.9451.06590000.010.01FF34.94597.94200438.8466481739300.645852326361019532415222.5DRYL
2021-07-14 16:00:06FORECAST2021293866.9450.6558.7950000.020.02FF34.94593.94200438.8466481739300.645852326361019532415222.5DRYL
2021-07-14 12:00:06FORECAST2021293863.6549.0456.34500.00030.00030.010.0103FF31.65584.65200438.8466481739300.507367452734439532415222.5DRYL
2021-07-14 08:00:06FORECAST2021293864.0248.7756.39500.00030.000300.0003FF32.02587.02200438.8466481739300.523312319925949532415222.5DRYL
2021-07-14 04:00:08FORECAST2021293864.8849.3957.13500.00030.00030.020.0203FF32.88590.88200438.8466481739300.560186406638589532415222.5DRYL
2021-07-14 00:00:06FORECAST2021293863.1846.1954.6850000.030.03FF31.18580.18200438.8466481739300.487099488657479522415220DRYL
2021-07-13 20:00:06FORECAST2021293864.2147.4555.830000.010.01FF32.21598.21200438.8466481739300.531487351042449532415222.5DRYL
2021-07-13 16:00:06FORECAST2021293864.2147.4455.8250000.020.02FF32.21600.21200438.8466481739300.531487351042449532515225DRYL
2021-07-13 12:00:05FORECAST2021293856.5446.5451.5400000FF24.54588.54200438.8466481739300.226560025297019512415217.5DRYL
2021-07-13 08:00:06FORECAST2021293850.0147.4148.710000.010.01FF18.01572.01200438.8466481739300.072558515783779512415217.5DRYL
2021-07-13 04:00:07FORECAST2021293850.0147.8548.930000.020.02FF18.01577.01200438.8466481739300.072558515783779512415217.5DRYL