MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, July 2, 2021

[ Thursday, July 1, 2021 | Index | Today | Saturday, July 3, 2021 ]

DAY 275 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/03/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 54.08°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 45.16°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 49.62°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.364
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 22
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 644

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.02 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.08 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.33 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.41 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 17 in
SWE DAY: 182
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 434.93 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 7.55 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -10

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-07-03 04:00:07OBSERVATION2021275-1054.0800645.1599849.6200217.3490466666670.0199999999999820.0799999999999820.330.40999999999998FF22.08006644.08006182434.92886267861 7.54560113529150.3635535775598891 2151228DRYL
2021-07-03 00:00:02FORECAST2021275-951.2751.2751.2721.8946573333330.00050.06050.330.3905FF19.27641.27183437.410701812669.57695743012110.2745342019071912151228DRYL
2021-07-02 12:00:02FORECAST2021275-966.4354.4860.45521.9041346666670.00270.06270.330.3927FF34.43656.43183437.414565133029.58118753983520.773531594758989141512210DRYL
2021-07-02 08:00:03FORECAST2021275-963.4749.156.28521.489160.00530.06530.330.3953FF31.47653.47183437.245318582559.39603461027150.68686213070428913151229DRYL
2021-07-02 04:00:07FORECAST2021275-966.3549.6758.0121.3777670.00590.06590.330.3959FF34.35656.35183437.199856801829.34635667114280.771381441862139141512210DRYL
2021-07-02 00:00:05FORECAST2021275-1068.8149.2859.04519.4660186666670.00970.00970.330.3397FF36.81658.81182435.802824428788.48334591531670.832101428212769141512120DRYL
2021-07-01 20:00:03FORECAST2021275-1069.0248.7658.8921.5632160.00460.02460.330.3546FF37.02667.02182436.664001100939.41588017516370.836755602095859141512120DRYL
2021-07-01 16:00:03FORECAST2021275-1069.4150.6360.0221.4692986666670.00130.02130.330.3513FF37.41667.41182436.625533661079.37404398766230.845175016468399141512120DRYL
2021-07-01 12:00:06FORECAST2021275-1069.2251.1160.16519.7081573333330.00020.02020.330.3502FF37.22667.22182435.902488761928.59083483051150.841109645013759141512120DRYL
2021-07-01 08:00:05FORECAST2021275-1069.7951.3560.5719.13290.00220.02220.330.3522FF37.79669.79182435.66561249678.33554659733810.853098407521589151512122DRYL
2021-07-01 04:00:07FORECAST2021275-1069.7351.4260.57518.4011839166670.00190.01190.330.3419FF37.73670.73182435.363809967758.01120953787740.851865711729819151512122DRYL
2021-07-01 00:00:06FORECAST2021275-1070.0751.660.83521.0055640.00220.02220.330.3522FF38.07656.07182436.435458795129.16757296159030.858760079433649151512122DRYL
2021-06-30 20:00:05FORECAST2021275-1070.2251.9361.07523.04251866666700.040.330.37FF38.22676.22182437.2686971199410.0757721157350.861731634362599151511111DRYL
2021-06-30 16:00:05FORECAST2021275-1070.5451.6661.122.9504053333330.00040.04040.330.3704FF38.54676.54182437.2311101597910.0346312025110.867928078793199151511111DRYL
2021-06-30 12:00:05FORECAST2021275-1071.0651.4461.2520.5315146666670.00050.03050.330.3605FF39.06677.06182436.240924619148.95668694201820.877584867781389151512122DRYL
2021-06-30 08:00:05FORECAST2021275-1071.451.0561.22519.7039160.00090.02090.330.3509FF39.4679.4182435.900743555498.58895163535490.883625324166859151512122DRYL
2021-06-30 04:00:07FORECAST2021275-1071.4251.3761.39519.6070324166670.00120.04120.330.3712FF39.42675.42182435.860873176068.54593826951970.883973961680049151512122DRYL
2021-06-30 00:00:06FORECAST2021275-1073.3751.9962.6822.08206533333300.020.330.35FF41.37656.37182436.8763504099.64713211231970.914498657957889151512122DRYL
2021-06-29 20:00:05FORECAST2021275-1076.7352.9164.8224.81354266666700.010.340.35FF44.73690.73182437.9896583249810.8680750744060.952438243742199151511111DRYL
2021-06-29 16:00:06FORECAST2021275-1078.1453.2565.69524.622920.00020.01020.340.3502FF46.14693.14182437.912213937110.7826774107960.963672830135799151511111DRYL
2021-06-29 12:00:06FORECAST2021275-1074.1253.3563.73521.2170773333330.00070.00070.340.3407FF42.12689.12182436.522181331919.26172487903450.924485940262579151512122DRYL
2021-06-29 08:00:05FORECAST2021275-1073.954.2664.0820.1163640.00150.01150.360.3715FF41.9686.9182436.070368013248.77215025256840.921652824403879151512122DRYL
2021-06-29 04:00:08FORECAST2021275-1080.0752.666.33519.2000206666670.00130.01130.340.3513FF48.07695.07182435.693268910938.36531976741750.975445158400899151512122DRYL
2021-06-29 00:00:06FORECAST2021275-1080.3354.1767.2521.8317346666670.00030.00030.340.3403FF48.33681.33182436.77393259169.53553260565640.976754456708479151512122DRYL
2021-06-28 20:00:06FORECAST2021275-1080.6254.567.5625.760613333333000.350.35FF48.62703.62182438.3738698583511.2927797568580.978145158676189151511111DRYL
2021-06-28 16:00:03FORECAST2021275-1080.2555.3167.7826.03165066666700.010.330.34FF48.25700.25182438.4836554076711.4144533406160.976357988221199151511111DRYL
2021-06-28 12:00:06FORECAST2021275-1082.0856.3569.21522.0677706666670.00080.03080.330.3608FF50.08702.08182436.870503783199.64075808851860.984126841211589151512122DRYL
2021-06-28 08:00:05FORECAST2021275-1077.5955.4366.5120.7227520.00080.03080.340.3708FF45.59700.59182436.319430287059.04173934661980.959579429089319151512122DRYL
2021-06-28 04:00:07FORECAST2021275-1077.5755.4466.50520.12807850.00080.02080.350.3708FF45.57706.57182436.075183154798.77735551844160.959423815494479151512122DRYL
2021-06-28 00:00:05FORECAST2021275-1081.4554.7968.1220.8000160.00170.00170.340.3417FF49.45699.45182436.351137452969.07611064063980.981743679555999151512122DRYL
2021-06-27 20:00:06FORECAST2021275-1081.0454.0667.5524.9376120.00320.00320.350.3532FF49.04715.04182438.040043907910.9236726554380.980034535375979151511111DRYL
2021-06-27 16:00:03FORECAST2021275-1081.0654.0467.5525.011740.00340.00340.340.3434FF49.06714.06182438.0701403254710.9568964515840.980120945017269151511111DRYL
2021-06-27 12:00:05FORECAST2021275-1079.9154.3467.12521.5360333333330.00410.00410.340.3441FF47.91713.91182436.65286834269.40377072772190.974609160169619151512122DRYL
2021-06-27 08:00:05FORECAST2021275-1081.7255.0468.3820.6902853333330.00060.00060.330.3306FF49.72704.72182436.306104942089.02729780392680.982799923806519151512122DRYL
2021-06-27 04:00:07FORECAST2021275-1081.7855.0468.4120.1443316666670.00060.00060.340.3406FF49.78713.78182436.081863637828.78457769493840.983027433772339151512122DRYL
2021-06-27 00:00:06FORECAST2021275-1077.9155.8266.86522.0171026666670.01230.02230.330.3523FF45.91694.91182436.849778481599.61816642273990.962004182665129151512122DRYL
2021-06-26 20:00:05FORECAST2021275-1077.6455.8866.7624.8236373333330.01020.02020.340.3602FF45.64714.64182437.9937584460710.8725982139290.959966350293929151511111DRYL
2021-06-26 16:00:06FORECAST2021275-1075.7555.0965.4225.3237280.01120.03120.340.3712FF43.75710.75182438.1967472496311.0967752378340.943109730367129151511111DRYL
2021-06-26 12:00:06FORECAST2021275-1083.1557.2870.21520.988606666667000.340.34FF51.15720.15182436.428504104919.16002621077970.987565759573069151512122DRYL
2021-06-26 08:00:05FORECAST2021275-1082.7756.5169.6420.4534746666670.00120.00120.340.3412FF50.77708.77182436.208877122428.92198721759850.986426442630849151512122DRYL
2021-06-26 04:00:07FORECAST2021275-1082.355.5568.92520.1111905833330.00120.00120.340.3412FF50.3716.3182436.06824148058.76985151175330.984893811759869151512122DRYL
2021-06-26 00:00:06FORECAST2021275-1081.7358.6970.2119.3678146666670.00090.25090.360.6109FF49.73719.73182435.762386164358.43976513393560.982838021763759151522144DRYM
2021-06-25 20:00:06FORECAST2021275-1083.5360.0471.78523.8537640.00070.25070.360.6107FF51.53723.53182437.599347283110.4383915566450.988621420684729151521122DRYL
2021-06-25 16:00:06FORECAST2021275-1083.5560.0371.7924.5609320.00070.25070.360.6107FF51.55727.55182437.8870219537910.754913369890.988674759953619151521122DRYL
2021-06-25 12:00:06FORECAST2021275-1072.2557.4864.86523.6692640.02990.03990.340.3799FF40.25714.25182437.5242079833210.3558759851480.89779602134419151511111DRYL
2021-06-25 08:00:06FORECAST2021275-1062.9657.560.2323.9814106666670.00210.01210.350.3621FF30.96700.96182437.651311942310.4954958404940.67059995026422913151124.5DRYL
2021-06-25 04:00:07FORECAST2021275-1060.8358.1659.49523.699972000.340.34FF28.83705.83182437.5367165378410.3696079309190.5994573679585913151124.5DRYL