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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, July 13, 2021

[ Monday, July 12, 2021 | Index | Today | Wednesday, July 14, 2021 ]

DAY 286 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/14/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 69.57°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 53.28°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 61.42°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.757
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 95 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 38
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 675

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.08 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.08 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 193
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 434.56 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 1

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 2
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 55.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-07-14 04:00:07OBSERVATION2021286169.5699653.2799661.424960000.080.08FF37.56996674.56996193434.55905685856 00.7573428864270695 42515155DRYH
2021-07-14 00:00:03FORECAST2021286156.8756.8756.8700.00220.00220.080.0822FF24.87661.87194435.1785746132700.302219244320559522515222.5DRYL
2021-07-13 12:00:03FORECAST2021286172.4155.3463.87500.00110.00110.080.0811FF40.41677.41194435.1785746132700.833919451079979542515155DRYH
2021-07-13 08:00:02FORECAST2021286167.9155.5261.71500.00050.00050.080.0805FF35.91672.91194435.1785746132700.705005230713529542515227.5DRYL
2021-07-13 04:00:07FORECAST2021286166.2854.0560.1650000.080.08FF34.28671.28194435.1785746132700.649067359038099532515225DRYL
2021-07-13 00:00:04FORECAST2021286168.5854.2661.420000.080.08FF36.58665.58193434.5590568585600.726744558061239542515155DRYH
2021-07-12 20:00:02FORECAST2021286168.6452.5460.590000.080.08FF36.64674.64193434.5590568585600.728652006744079542515155DRYH
2021-07-12 16:00:03FORECAST2021286168.7753.1660.9650000.080.08FF36.77674.77193434.5590568585600.732761945922999542515155DRYH
2021-07-12 12:00:06FORECAST2021286168.754.1161.4050000.080.08FF36.7674.7193434.5590568585600.730552805156869542515155DRYH
2021-07-12 08:00:05FORECAST2021286168.8654.4261.64000.040.080.12FF36.86671.86193434.5590568585600.735588792698229542515155DRYH
2021-07-12 04:00:08FORECAST202128616954.561.750000.080.08FF37675193434.5590568585600.739955693685529542515155DRYH
2021-07-12 00:00:06FORECAST2021286169.0854.4561.76500.00210.00210.080.0821FF37.08665.08193434.5590568585600.742434286408449542515155DRYH
2021-07-11 20:00:03FORECAST2021286168.6254.5361.57500.00220.00220.080.0822FF36.62674.62193434.5590568585600.728016927486079542515155DRYH
2021-07-11 16:00:05FORECAST2021286168.7254.5661.6400.00020.00020.080.0802FF36.72675.72193434.5590568585600.731184920009079542515155DRYH
2021-07-11 12:00:05FORECAST2021286168.6154.4161.510000.080.08FF36.61672.61193434.5590568585600.727699111217849542515155DRYH
2021-07-11 08:00:04FORECAST2021286168.4754.2961.380000.080.08FF36.47671.47193434.5590568585600.723230428772219542515155DRYH
2021-07-11 04:00:07FORECAST2021286168.7854.6861.730000.080.08FF36.78674.78193434.5590568585600.733076790616489542515155DRYH
2021-07-11 00:00:06FORECAST2021286168.8354.7861.80500.00320.03320.130.1632FF36.83659.83193434.5590568585600.734648201930229542515155DRYH
2021-07-10 20:00:06FORECAST2021286171.6955.0263.35500.00390.00390.080.0839FF39.69673.69193434.5590568585600.81615351288079542515155DRYH
2021-07-10 16:00:05FORECAST2021286171.755.1463.4200.00560.00560.080.0856FF39.7676.7193434.5590568585600.816408075859039542515155DRYH
2021-07-10 12:00:04FORECAST2021286168.5255.261.8600.00190.00190.080.0819FF36.52672.52193434.5590568585600.724830498821359542515155DRYH
2021-07-10 08:00:06FORECAST2021286168.4755.0261.74500.00250.00250.080.0825FF36.47672.47193434.5590568585600.723230428772219542515155DRYH
2021-07-10 04:00:07FORECAST2021286172.3855.0263.70000.080.08FF40.38678.38193434.5590568585600.833202052366129542515155DRYH
2021-07-10 00:00:06FORECAST2021286173.1355.5264.3250000.080.08FF41.13669.13193434.5590568585600.850539182065189552515160DRYH
2021-07-09 20:00:05FORECAST2021286173.1254.5163.8150000.080.08FF41.12680.12193434.5590568585600.850316212159319552515160DRYH
2021-07-09 16:00:06FORECAST2021286172.0854.4863.280000.080.08FF40.08679.08193434.5590568585600.825918629657799542515155DRYH
2021-07-09 12:00:06FORECAST2021286171.9953.9962.990000.080.08FF39.99680.99193434.5590568585600.823694855885519542515155DRYH
2021-07-09 08:00:05FORECAST2021286168.5954.3961.490000.080.08FF36.59673.59193434.5590568585600.727062926321129542515155DRYH
2021-07-09 04:00:07FORECAST2021286172.8356.4264.6250000.10.1FF40.83685.83193434.5590568585600.843753808879069542515155DRYH
2021-07-09 00:00:06FORECAST2021286174.4256.0565.23500.01290.01290.080.0929FF42.42674.42193434.5590568585600.877457478252699552515160DRYH
2021-07-08 20:00:06FORECAST2021286174.4253.9964.20500.01290.01290.080.0929FF42.42685.42193434.5590568585600.877457478252699552515160DRYH
2021-07-08 16:00:06FORECAST2021286174.654.7764.68500.01290.01290.080.0929FF42.6686.6193434.5590568585600.88092510570719552515160DRYH
2021-07-08 12:00:05FORECAST2021286172.4154.863.6050000.080.08FF40.41683.41193434.5590568585600.833919451079979542515155DRYH
2021-07-08 08:00:06FORECAST2021286171.6954.262.9450000.080.08FF39.69674.69193434.5590568585600.81615351288079542515155DRYH
2021-07-08 04:00:07FORECAST2021286171.754.2262.960000.080.08FF39.7681.7193434.5590568585600.816408075859039542515155DRYH
2021-07-08 00:00:06FORECAST2021286171.1254.4962.8050000.090.09FF39.12671.12193434.5590568585600.801282598479959542515155DRYH
2021-07-07 20:00:06FORECAST2021286169.2753.2661.2650000.080.08FF37.27681.27193434.5590568585600.748271461521799542515155DRYH
2021-07-07 16:00:06FORECAST2021286169.2753.2761.270000.080.08FF37.27683.27193434.5590568585600.748271461521799542515155DRYH
2021-07-07 12:00:06FORECAST2021286170.2752.0861.1750000.080.08FF38.27677.27193434.5590568585600.777808339316639542515155DRYH
2021-07-07 08:00:06FORECAST2021286171.0351.4261.2250000.090.09FF39.03681.03193434.5590568585600.798870110658289542515155DRYH
2021-07-07 04:00:07FORECAST2021286171.2851.4361.3550000.10.1FF39.28685.28193434.5590568585600.805528236043799542515155DRYH
2021-07-07 00:00:06FORECAST2021286171.0252.3761.69500.06780.06780.110.1778FF39.02679.02193434.5590568585600.798600978736219542515155DRYH
2021-07-06 20:00:06FORECAST2021286171.6353.0762.3500.03170.03170.110.1417FF39.63692.63193434.5590568585600.814621532854279542515155DRYH
2021-07-06 16:00:06FORECAST2021286171.4353.162.26500.00070.00070.120.1207FF39.43688.43193434.5590568585600.809458064823119542515155DRYH
2021-07-06 12:00:06FORECAST2021286161.3849.2655.320000.120.12FF29.38678.38193434.5590568585600.465623077422819522515222.5DRYL
2021-07-06 08:00:06FORECAST2021286154.0151.1552.580000.120.12FF22.01658.01193434.5590568585600.214219873217329512515220DRYL
2021-07-06 04:00:08FORECAST2021286151.4851.0451.260000.120.12FF19.48669.48193434.5590568585600.150521895252429512515220DRYL