MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, July 1, 2021

[ Wednesday, June 30, 2021 | Index | Today | Friday, July 2, 2021 ]

DAY 274 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/02/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 52.18°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 47.56°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 49.87°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.272
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 20
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 637

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.06 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.06 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.58 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.64 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 24 in
SWE DAY: 181
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 437.15 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 10.60 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -11

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-07-02 04:00:07OBSERVATION2021274-1152.1799847.5599249.8699524.2584816666670.0600000000000590.0600000000000590.580.64000000000006FF20.17998637.17998181437.15437467744 10.6047013836160.2719774785807592 2151124DRYL
2021-07-02 00:00:02FORECAST2021274-1051.9451.9451.9422.8909946666670.00020.00020.580.5802FF19.94636.94182437.2068628978610.0080999668250.2645775825875922151124DRYL
2021-07-01 12:00:05FORECAST2021274-1059.9452.5556.24523.2464573333330.02250.02250.580.6025FF27.94644.94182437.3518832643810.1668818939580.54740989861396923151124.5DRYL
2021-07-01 08:00:02FORECAST2021274-1061.7449.2555.49522.7017040.02080.02080.580.6008FF29.74646.74182437.129583335349.92358641052230.61313913209345923151229DRYL
2021-07-01 04:00:07FORECAST2021274-1063.1550.3356.7422.000601250.0140.0140.580.594FF31.15648.15182436.843028145839.6108092710790.66254445948274923151229DRYL
2021-07-01 00:00:06FORECAST2021274-1163.8251.5957.70524.6479493333330.01940.01940.580.5994FF31.82632.82181437.3133133176210.7788763894450.68513190983317923151124.5DRYL
2021-06-30 20:00:04FORECAST2021274-1165.0651.2158.13526.7056226666670.02180.04180.580.6218FF33.06653.06181438.1504285795711.7010800168840.72511640601925924151125DRYL
2021-06-30 16:00:02FORECAST2021274-1164.953.7259.3126.6267933333330.01960.03960.580.6196FF32.9652.9181438.118439278511.6656891381910.72010028350186924151125DRYL
2021-06-30 12:00:05FORECAST2021274-1164.8653.4759.16524.2298240.01090.03090.580.6109FF32.86652.86181437.1426735014310.5918900418290.7188393601834924151125DRYL
2021-06-30 08:00:05FORECAST2021274-1166.553.960.223.4209213333330.00590.01590.580.5959FF34.5654.5181436.812039899310.2305404239340.76817320735843924151125DRYL
2021-06-30 04:00:07FORECAST2021274-1166.4753.9660.21523.3387430833330.00520.03520.580.6152FF34.47651.47181436.7784120560910.1938591433230.76731616096871924151125DRYL
2021-06-30 00:00:06FORECAST2021274-1167.9453.6660.825.9434453333330.00670.01670.580.5967FF35.94629.94181437.8408649734911.3591005451390.80719378590182924151125DRYL
2021-06-29 20:00:05FORECAST2021274-1169.653.9661.7828.9144720.00580.01580.580.5958FF37.6660.6181439.0441903652212.6947309490780.846843940235519241511110DRYL
2021-06-29 16:00:06FORECAST2021274-1170.0654.0862.0728.7875906666670.00370.02370.580.6037FF38.06662.06181438.9929862888712.6375503948210.856802078758489251511111DRYL
2021-06-29 12:00:06FORECAST2021274-1170.4754.2662.36525.2514773333330.00480.01480.580.5948FF38.47662.47181437.5592978741411.0490186922580.865302122701459251511111DRYL
2021-06-29 08:00:05FORECAST2021274-1169.9254.3562.13524.2740920.00730.03730.580.6173FF37.92659.92181437.1607481547810.6116802194980.853818620069779251511111DRYL
2021-06-29 04:00:08FORECAST2021274-1170.0954.3162.223.5037633333330.00680.01680.580.5968FF38.09662.09181436.8459322493110.2675234047170.857436017319849251511111DRYL
2021-06-29 00:00:06FORECAST2021274-1169.5854.1761.87526.29515866666700.010.580.59FF37.58647.58181437.9837902497611.5168532580450.846400838156579241511110DRYL
2021-06-28 20:00:05FORECAST2021274-1173.1955.0464.11530.2086760.00270.02270.580.6027FF41.19670.19181439.5655362249213.2786928645850.912974182941619251511111DRYL
2021-06-28 16:00:02FORECAST2021274-1173.2854.1863.7330.5062813333330.00520.00520.580.5852FF41.28667.28181439.6851787986713.4131597625290.914302746723919251511111DRYL
2021-06-28 12:00:06FORECAST2021274-117354.563.7526.73450.03120.03120.580.6112FF41667181438.1621455295811.7140458796610.91011918946349251511111DRYL
2021-06-28 08:00:05FORECAST2021274-1172.155.8663.9825.2726586666670.03350.03350.590.6235FF40.1670.1181437.5679240659411.05850478840.895649152457799251511111DRYL
2021-06-28 04:00:07FORECAST2021274-1178.8753.9566.4124.67678250.01890.01890.60.6189FF46.87675.87181437.3250736526410.7917757243230.970786668789469251511111DRYL
2021-06-28 00:00:05FORECAST2021274-1177.9954.7866.38525.3564826666670.00050.01050.580.5905FF45.99664.99181437.6020572089811.0960489785170.964834873657559251511111DRYL
2021-06-27 20:00:05FORECAST2021274-1178.3552.0865.21529.45581200.010.590.6FF46.35681.35181439.2624675749912.9388326635450.967379808699929251511111DRYL
2021-06-27 16:00:03FORECAST2021274-1178.0254.4366.22529.548362666667000.590.59FF46.02680.02181439.2997554958612.980588494770.965052975828949251511111DRYL
2021-06-27 12:00:05FORECAST2021274-1178.8655.2167.03525.9796133333330.00030.00030.590.5903FF46.86680.86181437.8555684058511.3753183630310.97072404659359251511111DRYL
2021-06-27 08:00:05FORECAST2021274-1178.8855.2167.04525.3063933333330.00030.00030.580.5803FF46.88669.88181437.5816617001811.0736136464380.970849179983159251511111DRYL
2021-06-27 04:00:07FORECAST2021274-1175.8155.3165.5624.7631183333330.00060.00060.590.5906FF43.81678.81181437.3602827519410.8304044360860.94575892494419251511111DRYL
2021-06-27 00:00:06FORECAST2021274-1177.5954.7666.17526.3734893333330.00150.01150.580.5915FF45.59663.59181438.0156039968611.5519998598450.961819034403549251511111DRYL
2021-06-26 20:00:05FORECAST2021274-1177.5554.6866.11529.19664266666700.010.590.6FF45.55683.55181439.1580036768412.821939307560.96150621897939251511111DRYL
2021-06-26 16:00:06FORECAST2021274-1177.0252.8764.94529.5214720.00050.02050.590.6105FF45.02682.02181439.2889223654712.9684556215220.957161535645819251511111DRYL
2021-06-26 12:00:05FORECAST2021274-1179.4157.2168.3125.8319640.00090.00090.590.5909FF47.41684.41181437.7955357973411.3091185200780.974007106900829251511111DRYL
2021-06-26 08:00:05FORECAST2021274-1179.0457.1168.07525.2303573333330.00170.00170.590.5917FF47.04673.04181437.5506961985311.0395604165380.971834377594979251511111DRYL
2021-06-26 04:00:07FORECAST2021274-1178.5155.9267.21524.8490959166670.00170.00170.590.5917FF46.51680.51181437.3953380790310.8688787094290.968461239632429251511111DRYL
2021-06-26 00:00:06FORECAST2021274-1179.7861.6770.72524.2090946666670.22020.27020.590.8602FF47.78684.78181437.1342090023810.5826234477770.97603816816189251521122DRYL
2021-06-25 20:00:06FORECAST2021274-1177.1660.5668.8628.1025120.22250.27250.590.8625FF45.16687.16181438.7162315033312.3290281604170.958345881831869251521122DRYL
2021-06-25 16:00:05FORECAST2021274-1180.7860.5370.65527.7741840.22250.27250.590.8625FF48.78690.78181438.5834243331612.1812967267790.980872380603729251521122DRYL
2021-06-25 12:00:06FORECAST2021274-1181.6156.4969.0525.6813253333330.00560.00560.590.5956FF49.61688.61181437.7342645517611.2415960575010.984230804202119251511111DRYL
2021-06-25 08:00:06FORECAST2021274-1181.6156.4969.0525.1782826666670.00560.00560.60.6056FF49.61684.61181437.5294854489711.0162410596350.984230804202119251511111DRYL
2021-06-25 04:00:07FORECAST2021274-1181.656.9169.25524.4498893333330.00380.00380.590.5938FF49.6691.6181437.2325062635510.690286391080.984193560970769251511111DRYL
2021-06-25 00:00:05FORECAST2021274-1184.9465.6975.31523.9017266666670.01060.04060.590.6306FF52.94696.94181437.0086477755110.44526125010.993125790417319251511111DRYL
2021-06-24 20:00:06FORECAST2021274-1188.7668.7978.77526.1662586666670.0040.0340.590.624FF56.76713.76181437.9314241511711.4590269226010.997625720440689251511111DRYL
2021-06-24 16:00:06FORECAST2021274-1188.7868.7878.7827.05765333333300.030.590.62FF56.78715.78181438.2932060774911.85918562840.997639636055769251511111DRYL
2021-06-24 12:00:06FORECAST2021274-1176.5862.669.5926.446480.00070.00070.590.5907FF44.58704.58181438.0452432236511.5847547640090.953261802266239251511111DRYL
2021-06-24 08:00:06FORECAST2021274-1167.3863.8165.59526.6011320.00070.00070.590.5907FF35.38689.38181438.1080244110411.6541693876170.79251893706251924151125DRYL
2021-06-24 04:00:08FORECAST2021274-1167.3864.0365.70526.3794888333330.00030.00030.590.5903FF35.38698.38181438.0180404134411.5546920058850.79251893706251924151125DRYL