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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, June 9, 2021

[ Tuesday, June 8, 2021 | Index | Today | Thursday, June 10, 2021 ]

DAY 252 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/10/2021 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 45.14°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.57°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 38.35°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.241
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 13
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 322

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.02 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.43 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.45 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.88 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 106 in
SWE DAY: 159
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.04 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 48.52 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -33

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-06-10 04:00:06OBSERVATION2021252-3345.1431.5699838.35499106.38758250.0199999999999820.429999999999983.453.88TF13.14322.14159456.04360650502 48.5173768106510.2410957838369689 1122124DRYL
2021-06-10 00:00:02FORECAST2021252-3235.3435.3435.34106.981741333330.00120.41123.453.8612TF3.34312.34160456.7947495476548.8686977385320.043331485870249891122124DRYL
2021-06-09 12:00:03FORECAST2021252-3247.3535.7541.55107.307974666670.05340.46343.453.9134TF15.35324.35160456.9116255372949.0302611380620.3173029355897892122125DRYL
2021-06-09 08:00:03FORECAST2021252-3247.4434.2640.85107.206950666670.06160.47163.453.9216TF15.44324.44160456.8754431430448.9802230938470.32061172632663892122125DRYL
2021-06-09 04:00:07FORECAST2021252-3246.8834.0440.46107.672711166670.06250.47253.453.9225TF14.88323.88160457.0421810125149.2109707471440.30026459806812892122125DRYL
2021-06-09 00:00:06FORECAST2021252-3346.2732.439.335109.1932840.07560.48563.453.9356TF14.27314.27159457.0509498426149.9068941686340.27879002827036892122125DRYL
2021-06-08 19:58:52FORECAST2021252-3346.5434.140.32110.1522840.09550.64553.454.0955TF14.54327.54159457.3936208911450.3829520281890.28820280199301892123127.5WETL
2021-06-08 16:00:03FORECAST2021252-3346.1833.639.89110.151409333330.10590.65593.454.1059TF14.18327.18159457.3933087343350.3825175767230.27568598571099892123127.5WETL
2021-06-08 12:00:06FORECAST2021252-3346.2234.7540.485109.5512240.09350.64353.454.0935TF14.22327.22159457.1789470412350.0845132353980.27706346349802892123127.5WETL
2021-06-08 08:00:05FORECAST2021252-3341.6734.1637.915109.589217333330.08720.64723.454.0972TF9.67321.67159457.1925263991550.1033711387320.14453299139258891123126WETL
2021-06-08 04:00:08FORECAST2021252-3346.343440.17109.901937416670.10230.67233.454.1223TF14.34322.34159457.3042472371350.2586227602310.28121597154654892123127.5WETL
2021-06-08 00:00:06FORECAST2021252-3345.2433.0739.155105.6583160.10910.31913.453.7691TF13.24312.24159455.7805971556748.1570103609430.24431615720598891122124DRYL
2021-06-07 20:00:03FORECAST2021252-3344.7833.5339.155105.511481333330.12530.38533.453.8353TF12.78325.78159455.7275824100348.0844923045410.22969557815935891122124DRYL
2021-06-07 16:00:05FORECAST2021252-3345.1134.4839.795105.484913333330.13930.39933.453.8493TF13.11325.11159455.7179879048648.0713724585850.24013418453499891122124DRYL
2021-06-07 11:58:53FORECAST2021252-3345.2634.1639.71105.22507923910.12680.42683.453.8768TF13.26325.26159455.6241198476147.9430841142090.24496299846317891122124DRYL
2021-06-07 08:00:04FORECAST2021252-3344.6434.5539.595105.359079039710.11150.50153.453.9515TF12.64320.64159455.6725365541248.0092387950310.22534492454278891123126DRYL
2021-06-07 04:00:08FORECAST2021252-3344.6834.5139.595105.660688816120.10030.54033.453.9903TF12.68325.68159455.7814537000448.1581823475580.22658319292501891123126DRYL
2021-06-07 00:00:05FORECAST2021252-3345.8433.7239.78107.2424120.09590.85592.993.8459TF13.84319.84159456.3512804590148.9402120357130.26411501244531892123127.5DRYL
2021-06-06 20:00:05FORECAST2021252-3346.7934.2640.525106.318040684680.15790.82793.494.3179TF14.79336.79159456.0185473160748.4829984665190.29704963857967892123127.5WETL
2021-06-06 16:00:06FORECAST2021252-3346.7233.9640.34107.206069794490.13070.83073.494.3207TF14.72335.72159456.3382136065848.9222263778020.29456004138488892123127.5WETL
2021-06-06 12:00:05FORECAST2021252-3348.7234.2441.48108.222313841730.07410.71413.494.2041TF16.72339.72159456.7031501656649.4254716497360.3691069106344892123127.5WETL
2021-06-06 07:59:06FORECAST2021252-3348.4135.1641.785108.142170370650.08680.69683.484.1768TF16.41337.41159456.6744045856249.3857612646120.35713322947822892123127.5WETL
2021-06-06 04:00:08FORECAST2021252-3348.1132.2940.2108.639513145340.0680.6783.474.148TF16.11331.11159456.8526952738849.632254393690.34567804501277892123127.5WETL
2021-06-06 00:00:06FORECAST2021252-3347.1232.4439.78110.299717189440.06530.65532.783.4353TF15.12323.12159457.4462279115550.4561895680210.30891364198484892123127.5DRYL
2021-06-05 20:00:07FORECAST2021252-3347.0431.6339.335108.719149710730.07720.60723.013.6172TF15.04335.04159456.8812229967149.6717380830010.30601852265376892123127.5DRYL
2021-06-05 16:00:05FORECAST2021252-3347.0633.1140.085108.689467915910.07780.57783.083.6578TF15.06334.06159456.870590942349.6570214359480.30674117785127892123127.5DRYL
2021-06-05 12:00:06FORECAST2021252-3344.7233.4839.1109.232663589460.18450.70453.023.7245TF12.72328.72159457.0650374455949.9264314737980.22782528634683891123126DRYL
2021-06-05 08:00:42FORECAST2021252-3345.5733.6839.625109.278663498140.15460.66463.143.8046TF13.57330.57159457.0814916086749.9492545127320.25510563276209892123127.5DRYL
2021-06-05 04:00:09FORECAST2021252-3344.4733.6939.08108.44578495860.16610.58613.183.7661TF12.47337.47159456.7832731049949.5362206078270.22012516528371891123126DRYL
2021-06-04 23:59:01FORECAST2021252-3350.6634.2242.44109.754654666030.06650.38653.153.5365FF18.66347.66159457.251640781650.1854959294590.44649922186318892122125DRYL
2021-06-04 20:00:05FORECAST2021252-3353.3232.0942.705110.964858271430.02470.41473.073.4847FF21.32351.32159457.6833183757250.7867645567610.55539940387329893122126DRYL
2021-06-04 16:00:06FORECAST2021252-3353.3535.3744.36111.061865597260.02810.36813.133.4981FF21.35350.35159457.7178633147550.8349998169260.55661928096487893122126DRYL
2021-06-04 12:00:06FORECAST2021252-3344.7834.9239.85109.928419709490.27010.64013.033.6701TF12.78343.78159457.3137040957250.2717728027340.22969557815935891123126DRYL
2021-06-04 08:00:06FORECAST2021252-3345.9335.7240.825108.919009576430.2760.6462.943.586TF13.93351.93159456.9527921736849.7708455467420.26715371028367892123127.5DRYL
2021-06-04 04:00:09FORECAST2021252-334635.7140.855108.921023623630.26750.61752.913.5275TF14346159456.9535132126349.7718444075310.26952926650447892123127.5DRYL
2021-06-04 00:00:06FORECAST2021252-3355.5636.8346.195106.624679944270.02640.32642.93.2264FF23.56347.56159456.129010608548.6346097694270.64427402257309893122126DRYL
2021-06-03 20:00:06FORECAST2021252-3355.8437.6346.735108.82264327230.01580.29582.933.2258FF23.84363.84159456.9182882448849.7230558862640.65495434793315893122126DRYL
2021-06-03 16:00:06FORECAST2021252-3355.5737.6846.625109.029114506340.01530.24532.893.1353FF23.57364.57159456.9922048776149.8254554341050.64465747871012893122126DRYL
2021-06-03 12:00:06FORECAST2021252-3353.4332.9743.2108.395727069030.00880.27882.692.9688FF21.43353.43159456.7653293902249.5114099791770.5598696336328893122126DRYL
2021-06-03 08:00:06FORECAST2021252-3353.5934.0443.815107.92552416420.00980.32982.683.0098FF21.59353.59159456.5966693861349.2784348751260.56635803591865893122126DRYL
2021-06-03 04:00:08FORECAST2021252-3353.5734.4944.03107.947506197240.00980.32982.652.9798FF21.57356.57159456.6045587474749.289323435080.56554792577696893122126DRYL
2021-06-03 00:00:07FORECAST2021252-3356.9733.6445.305111.76099471670.0070.6772.753.427TF24.97344.97159457.9665761697551.182800099730.69674465499846893123129DRYL
2021-06-02 19:59:14FORECAST2021252-3354.9432.6343.785114.448745147090.00670.70672.723.4267TF22.94357.94159458.9186322280852.522661583120.62022883427453893123129DRYL
2021-06-02 16:00:36FORECAST2021252-3354.4232.6443.53115.58819893220.00640.73642.793.5264TF22.42355.42159459.3202923305853.0920053235050.59969263651102893123129DRYL
2021-06-02 11:59:16FORECAST2021252-3353.5437.8645.7112.960009728610.00230.50232.83.3023FF21.54354.54159458.392094863351.7799754952780.56433224541275893123129DRYL
2021-06-02 08:00:37FORECAST2021252-3337.7935.8136.8113.365841752730.00220.58222.843.4222FF5.79335.79159458.535827379751.9823000446820.07211032462556891123126DRYL
2021-06-02 04:00:08FORECAST2021252-3337.636.1636.88111.539880357090.00190.42192.793.2119FF5.6334.6159457.8879632210351.0727686346250.069454986479321891122124DRYL