Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, June 8, 2021

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DAY 251 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/09/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 41.69°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.66°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.67°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.174 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 10 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 327 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.90 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.05 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.95 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 108 in SWE DAY: 158 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.24 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 49.47 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -34 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-06-09 04:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	251	-34	41.68994	29.66	35.67497	108.42169916667	0	0.9	3.05	3.95	T	F	9.68994	326.68994	158	456.23734302784	49.466027954364	0.17354725488465	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-09 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	251	-33	32.53	32.53	32.53	109.99710266667	0.0028	0.9028	3.05	3.9528	T	F	0.53	317.53	159	457.33822789817	50.305880007506	0.036956665324155	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-08 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	251	-33	46.38	34.97	40.675	110.413864	0.1402	1.0402	3.05	4.0902	T	F	14.38	331.38	159	457.48694417806	50.512901236252	0.30592100342886	91	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2021-06-08 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	251	-33	44.78	34.08	39.43	110.30617066667	0.1545	1.0545	3.05	4.1045	T	F	12.78	329.78	159	457.44853018733	50.45939564206	0.25621186200057	91	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2021-06-08 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	251	-33	41.4	33.09	37.245	110.71953208333	0.1648	1.0648	3.05	4.1148	T	F	9.4	326.4	159	457.59591813477	50.664805939125	0.16677071943423	91	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2021-06-08 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	40.11	31.85	35.98	106.40708533333	0.2067	0.6967	3.05	3.7467	T	F	8.11	317.11	158	455.51058045541	48.469553204755	0.13871476609124	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-07 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	44.84	32.09	38.465	106.28441333333	0.1761	0.7461	3.05	3.7961	T	F	12.84	330.84	158	455.46620686768	48.40895859009	0.25799720405902	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-06-07 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	43.81	32.93	38.37	106.28091466667	0.1815	0.7515	3.05	3.8015	T	F	11.81	329.81	158	455.46494110801	48.407230539559	0.228264741511	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-07 11:58:53	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	43.67	32.38	38.025	105.99057657243	0.2224	0.7924	3.05	3.8424	T	F	11.67	329.67	158	455.35986238534	48.263854362164	0.22437735277532	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-07 08:00:04	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	44.07	32.3	38.185	106.11227637304	0.2089	0.8789	3.05	3.9289	T	F	12.07	326.07	158	455.403917226	48.323946326052	0.23558346305335	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-07 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	44.12	32.66	38.39	106.41323014945	0.1728	0.9328	3.05	3.9828	T	F	12.12	331.12	158	455.51280282834	48.472588723394	0.23700557923078	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-07 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	44.23	32.68	38.455	108.0078	0.1956	0.7856	3.05	3.8356	T	F	12.23	324.23	158	456.08833421339	49.261097584053	0.24015074997723	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-06 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	43.84	32.6	38.22	107.16920068468	0.191	1.201	3.05	4.251	T	F	11.84	339.84	158	455.7859474382	48.846215670263	0.22910264309816	91	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2021-06-06 16:00:05	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	43.14	33.16	38.15	108.04289448681	0.2195	1.2295	3.05	4.2795	T	F	11.14	339.14	158	456.10097474139	49.278469489314	0.21000531813748	91	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2021-06-06 12:00:04	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	44.64	32.61	38.625	109.14924184173	0.2302	1.1702	3.05	4.2202	T	F	12.64	340.64	158	456.49888798747	49.826507525426	0.25207121522269	91	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2021-06-06 07:59:06	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	45.54	32.86	39.2	109.13360503731	0.1931	1.1331	3.05	4.1831	T	F	13.54	338.54	158	456.49327177965	49.818756424591	0.27929206144555	91	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2021-06-06 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	43.82	34.53	39.175	109.55268231981	0.1793	1.1193	3.05	4.1693	T	F	11.82	332.82	158	456.64371297877	50.026543621302	0.22854385080904	91	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2021-06-06 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	40.18	33.92	37.05	111.16453658234	0.1919	1.1719	2.29	3.4619	T	F	8.18	326.18	158	457.22084949527	50.826743849927	0.14014956719766	91	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-06-05 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	45.15	33.14	39.145	109.52912428807	0.1701	1.0501	2.58	3.6301	T	F	13.15	338.15	158	456.63526031684	50.014860181557	0.26732307185878	91	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-06-05 16:00:05	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	45.4	33.31	39.355	109.52641458258	0.1347	1.0947	2.58	3.6747	T	F	13.4	337.4	158	456.63428803746	50.013516344213	0.27496571481671	91	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-06-05 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	44.07	33.82	38.945	109.8615499501	0.1773	1.0473	2.58	3.6273	T	F	12.07	334.07	158	456.75448843647	50.179756046297	0.23558346305335	91	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-06-05 08:00:41	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	41.26	34.51	37.885	110.04115416481	0.2265	1.0265	2.71	3.7365	T	F	9.26	335.26	158	456.81886358661	50.268874993326	0.16356042363207	91	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-06-05 04:00:09	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	45.89	33.3	39.595	109.1445889586	0.1898	0.9198	2.77	3.6898	T	F	13.89	342.89	158	456.49721685356	49.824201094224	0.29025025396493	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-06-04 23:59:01	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	47.08	33.39	40.235	110.92976933269	0.1074	0.7874	2.77	3.5574	T	F	15.08	347.08	158	457.13693626125	50.710094892914	0.32893179446308	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-06-04 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	46.98	31.36	39.17	112.25980227143	0.1306	0.8406	2.71	3.5506	T	F	14.98	347.98	158	457.61167147342	51.371395756706	0.32560189228788	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-06-04 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	46.77	32.76	39.765	112.44908693059	0.1295	0.9295	2.63	3.5595	T	F	14.77	346.77	158	457.67910351029	51.465597296944	0.31865444393304	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-06-04 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	47.94	33.07	40.505	110.86234504282	0.1684	0.8584	2.63	3.4884	T	F	15.94	348.94	158	457.11282743888	50.676599999028	0.35810678150012	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-06-04 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	51.24	34.25	42.745	109.91071757643	0.1507	0.7707	2.63	3.4007	T	F	19.24	356.24	158	456.77211440185	50.204150862812	0.47644301205559	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-06-04 04:00:09	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	46.09	34.24	40.165	109.94329029029	0.1465	0.7265	2.62	3.3465	F	F	14.09	350.09	158	456.78379009117	50.220312833894	0.29660108510575	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-06-04 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	50.34	37.21	43.775	108.21241861093	0.1404	0.6504	2.64	3.2904	F	F	18.34	342.34	158	456.162019021	49.362395356709	0.44349577060123	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-06-03 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	50.71	35.21	42.96	110.4636272723	0.0956	0.7056	2.59	3.2956	F	F	18.71	357.71	158	456.97017397261	50.47858297227	0.45700663616778	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-06-03 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	50.56	35.58	43.07	110.65845450634	0.0703	0.6003	2.61	3.2103	F	F	18.56	358.56	158	457.0398974187	50.575328696089	0.45152236717887	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-06-03 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	46.85	35.06	40.955	109.54840451644	0.1287	0.4587	2.59	3.0487	F	F	14.85	349.85	158	456.64217813322	50.024422049407	0.32129375794393	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-06-03 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	48.87	34.69	41.78	109.20286549753	0.1088	0.4688	2.62	3.0888	F	F	16.87	349.87	158	456.51814608511	49.853089704115	0.39061121000888	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-06-03 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	48.72	34.87	41.795	109.24955686391	0.1088	0.4188	2.64	3.0588	F	F	16.72	352.72	158	456.5349124232	49.876236875137	0.38530976451827	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-06-03 00:00:07	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	47.76	32	39.88	113.21015338336	0.1999	0.8799	2.63	3.5099	T	F	15.76	337.76	158	457.94990393018	51.844578865831	0.3519244589797	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-06-02 19:59:14	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	47.07	32.17	39.62	115.49692381375	0.2231	0.9031	2.61	3.5131	T	F	15.07	353.07	158	458.76043341615	52.985418827029	0.32859818743727	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-06-02 16:00:36	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	47.1	32.17	39.635	116.1990989322	0.2231	1.0131	2.6	3.6131	T	F	15.1	351.1	158	459.00837111669	53.336359126098	0.32959941699482	91	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-06-02 11:59:16	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	51.87	33.08	42.475	113.60381906195	0.0304	0.8904	2.5	3.3904	T	F	19.87	350.87	158	458.08977160675	52.040747527742	0.49961595616308	91	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-06-02 08:00:36	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	49.19	32.36	40.775	113.57040441939	0.0465	1.0165	2.49	3.5065	T	F	17.19	348.19	158	458.0779049628	52.024092922213	0.40198797569454	91	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-06-02 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	50.89	33.4	42.145	111.67556302376	0.038	0.808	2.49	3.298	F	F	18.89	346.89	158	457.40333358161	51.080774806669	0.46359849183979	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-06-01 23:59:17	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	50.39	33.66	42.025	108.98861629307	0.0294	0.3794	2.47	2.8494	F	F	18.39	358.39	158	456.44118613417	49.74689329593	0.44531808359091	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-06-01 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	49.87	33.74	41.805	112.04960129457	0.0299	0.2499	2.45	2.6999	F	F	17.87	357.87	158	457.53675006554	51.266810422458	0.42642956598542	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-06-01 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	47.52	33.73	40.625	112.27333505156	0.0217	0.2417	2.45	2.6917	F	F	15.52	357.52	158	457.61649355795	51.378129906353	0.34374209377903	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-06-01 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	47.33	34.89	41.11	109.428272	0.0164	0.1864	2.46	2.6464	F	F	15.33	359.33	158	456.59906862608	49.964847076562	0.33731564914411	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-06-01 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	38.96	35.3	37.13	109.46825312447	0.0049	0.1649	2.47	2.6349	F	F	6.96	342.96	158	456.61341729762	49.984673144763	0.11656611098133	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-01 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	251	-34	36.49	35.3	35.895	109.31880567061	0.0034	0.1634	2.47	2.6334	F	F	4.49	343.49	158	456.55977522016	49.91056934431	0.077714261274417	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L