Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, June 6, 2021

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DAY 249 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/07/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.11°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.86°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 30.49°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.036 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 1 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 321 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.49 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.25 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.48 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.73 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 107 in SWE DAY: 156 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 454.73 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 48.77 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -36 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 4 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 8.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-06-07 04:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	249	-36	33.11006	27.86	30.48503	107.24552041667	0.49000000000001	1.25	2.48	3.73	T	F	1.11006	321.11006	156	454.72952255838	48.767704295596	0.036347288547725	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-06-07 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	249	-35	30.11	30.11	30.11	109	0.0269	0.7869	2.48	3.2669	F	F	-1.89	318.11	157	455.90672575423	49.693833107211	0.019354421709012	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-06 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	249	-35	41.53	29.55	35.54	109.05014367388	0.5291	1.2891	2.48	3.7691	T	F	9.53	329.53	157	455.92480956625	49.718665987686	0.15106454121862	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-06-06 07:59:06	FORECAST	2021	249	-35	38.51	29.92	34.215	108.99679121919	0.5237	1.2837	2.48	3.7637	T	F	6.51	326.51	157	455.90556846126	49.692244061238	0.095913531006724	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-06-06 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	249	-35	34.66	30.74	32.7	109.33690681801	0.5119	1.2719	2.48	3.7519	T	F	2.66	322.66	157	456.02818357406	49.860711013825	0.049053646503345	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-06-06 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	39.28	30.81	35.045	111.0626150437	0.581	0.581	2.48	3.061	F	F	7.28	320.28	156	456.11091311719	50.656870760764	0.10832583525517	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-05 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	39.63	30.33	34.98	109.64358937885	0.5169	0.8069	2.48	3.2869	F	F	7.63	325.63	156	455.59893702996	49.953502773152	0.11433352199942	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-05 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	40.19	30.6	35.395	109.79209591382	0.5875	0.8775	2.48	3.3575	T	F	8.19	326.19	156	455.65260380757	50.027054380624	0.12443102989104	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-05 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	40.68	30.37	35.525	110.16763402823	0.5312	0.8212	2.48	3.3012	F	F	8.68	326.68	156	455.78822418552	50.213110276446	0.13376286859568	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-05 08:00:41	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	39.65	30.1	34.875	110.51131307033	0.5157	0.9357	2.48	3.4157	T	F	7.65	324.65	156	455.91222578539	50.383458716361	0.1146838230513	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-05 04:00:09	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	39.71	30.18	34.945	109.90045205746	0.5024	0.9824	2.48	3.4624	T	F	7.71	326.71	156	455.69174840395	50.080729148446	0.11573929202754	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-04 23:59:01	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	39.63	30.21	34.92	111.83494030126	0.4729	0.9529	2.48	3.4329	T	F	7.63	330.63	156	456.388788997	51.040212971645	0.11433352199942	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-04 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	39.83	30.34	35.085	113.03655566207	0.4471	0.8671	2.48	3.3471	T	F	7.83	330.83	156	456.820037349	51.637363579351	0.11787082038181	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-04 16:00:05	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	40.36	30.05	35.205	113.27867392343	0.5899	0.9299	2.48	3.4099	T	F	8.36	331.36	156	456.90677208577	51.757793248511	0.12761578708307	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-04 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	41.64	30.56	36.1	111.76009397604	0.4851	0.8251	2.48	3.3051	F	F	9.64	332.64	156	456.36188379054	51.003047019512	0.15340751435073	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-04 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	41.68	30.6	36.14	111.04670451948	0.4039	0.7439	2.48	3.2239	F	F	9.68	333.68	156	456.1051829171	50.648977477199	0.15426542508482	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-04 04:00:09	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	41.76	30.39	36.075	110.83065303308	0.3836	0.7136	2.48	3.1936	F	F	9.76	332.76	156	456.02734871076	50.541808858559	0.15599072190254	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-04 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	42.65	30.13	36.39	110.28963563502	0.3542	0.7042	2.48	3.1842	F	F	10.65	319.65	156	455.83225553994	50.273573374188	0.17603644330472	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-03 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	43.96	31.17	37.565	112.33761179986	0.4333	0.7233	2.49	3.2133	F	F	11.96	334.96	156	456.56935317896	51.289910757131	0.20836218443864	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-03 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	44.23	31.25	37.74	112.27509634502	0.3678	0.6778	2.49	3.1678	F	F	12.23	335.23	156	456.54690960895	51.258848262367	0.21543460335607	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-03 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	39.97	31.21	35.59	110.62888791118	0.1864	0.4764	2.49	2.9664	F	F	7.97	330.97	156	455.95462269685	50.441752846916	0.12039241726337	89	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-03 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	40.21	31.86	36.035	110.14461267806	0.1493	0.4693	2.49	2.9593	F	F	8.21	330.21	156	455.77991406597	50.201702101236	0.12480280485711	89	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-03 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	45.61	30.62	38.115	110.14210495871	0.0963	0.4363	2.49	2.9263	F	F	13.61	336.61	156	455.77900881397	50.200459426766	0.25368301087146	89	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-06-03 00:00:07	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	47.38	31.43	39.405	112.56725483002	0.211	0.541	2.49	3.031	F	F	15.38	322.38	156	456.65176635999	51.404035752425	0.30750086256382	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-06-02 19:59:14	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	47.4	31.54	39.47	114.61951017219	0.2035	0.5035	2.5	3.0035	F	F	15.4	338.4	156	457.38613935637	52.425375252575	0.30813667462401	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-06-02 16:00:35	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	46.72	31.32	39.02	115.22310124941	0.2761	0.5661	2.5	3.0661	F	F	14.72	335.72	156	457.60139910233	52.726252340639	0.28685194447559	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-06-02 11:59:16	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	44.75	29.47	37.11	113.04910545866	0.3949	0.5949	2.49	3.0849	F	F	12.75	336.75	156	456.8245344104	51.643604966666	0.22944020558558	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-02 08:00:36	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	44.7	30.57	37.635	112.42336010513	0.4375	0.6275	2.49	3.1175	F	F	12.7	337.7	156	456.6001317402	51.332521034677	0.22807176522807	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-02 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	43.04	30.56	36.8	111.99302345488	0.3899	0.5799	2.49	3.0699	F	F	11.04	333.04	156	456.4455987586	51.11872264765	0.18531154085009	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-01 23:59:17	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	46.79	32.97	39.88	110.67040533333	0.1194	0.2694	2.51	2.7794	F	F	14.79	339.79	156	455.96959065125	50.462339417047	0.28901057883826	89	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-06-01 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	45.05	31.89	38.47	113.662752	0.1313	0.2613	2.51	2.7713	F	F	13.05	340.05	156	457.04425213075	51.948907482962	0.23774660809572	89	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-01 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	45.09	32.75	38.92	113.52945743544	0.1315	0.2715	2.5	2.7715	F	F	13.09	341.09	156	456.99655478063	51.882570914112	0.23886643781386	89	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-01 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	45.44	34.53	39.985	110.881476	0.1231	0.2731	2.5	2.7731	F	F	13.44	340.44	156	456.04566191693	50.567016116746	0.24878672128185	89	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-01 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	47.48	34.81	41.145	110.67156291362	0.0683	0.2383	2.49	2.7283	F	F	15.48	333.48	156	455.97000796207	50.462913422897	0.31068566499377	89	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-06-01 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	47.5	34.82	41.16	110.43034541567	0.0683	0.2383	2.49	2.7283	F	F	15.5	335.5	156	455.88302188313	50.343319575695	0.31132434030178	89	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-06-01 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	36.54	32.66	34.6	111.31607505186	0.373	0.523	2.49	3.013	F	F	4.54	326.54	156	456.20216591261	50.782634539551	0.068951156919586	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-31 19:59:21	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	39.33	32.1	35.715	113.32817865266	0.4101	0.5501	2.5	3.0501	F	F	7.33	346.33	156	456.92449974338	51.782421337694	0.10916993110773	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-31 16:00:07	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	39.35	32.14	35.745	113.25038862105	0.4101	0.5401	2.49	3.0301	F	F	7.35	348.35	156	456.89664211023	51.743722278636	0.10950888517321	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-31 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	45.97	34.52	40.245	109.05354702979	0.1194	0.2294	2.5	2.7294	F	F	13.97	357.97	156	455.38550945734	49.661405072294	0.26421607416475	89	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-31 07:59:58	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	46.64	35.19	40.915	108.8580825	0.1194	0.2294	2.51	2.7394	F	F	14.64	353.64	156	455.31473630925	49.564689128618	0.28439431982565	89	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-31 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	48.93	35.56	42.245	108.1238545	0.0653	0.2153	2.5	2.7153	F	F	16.93	358.93	156	455.04857536322	49.201605953005	0.3583600938276	89	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-31 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	42.73	33.45	38.09	109.39655730428	0.1657	0.3657	2.51	2.8757	F	F	10.73	341.73	156	455.50962057751	49.83118431016	0.17791472323543	89	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-30 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	42.74	35.1	38.92	111.50889901739	0.128	0.318	2.5	2.818	F	F	10.74	356.74	156	456.27154867555	50.878338045768	0.17815039160935	89	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-30 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	42.17	35.71	38.94	111.72526010141	0.0861	0.3961	2.51	2.9061	F	F	10.17	352.17	156	456.34936022119	50.985750967823	0.16503119219099	89	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-30 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	35.1	33.91	34.505	111.3550025427	0.1323	0.2523	2.52	2.7723	F	F	3.1	343.1	156	456.21617571048	50.801953406259	0.053242807943899	89	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-30 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	34.91	34.15	34.53	110.84655054818	0.1006	0.2206	2.52	2.7406	F	F	2.91	335.91	156	456.03307736854	50.549693562172	0.051400422342235	89	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-30 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	249	-36	33.48	33.24	33.36	109.93611505269	0.0482	0.1282	2.5	2.6282	F	F	1.48	341.48	156	455.70462961391	50.098396591279	0.039105256238055	89	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L