Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, June 4, 2021

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DAY 247 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/05/2021 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 52.18°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 38.03°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 45.10°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.460 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 20 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 320 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.31 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.31 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 109 in SWE DAY: 154 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 454.11 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 49.29 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -38 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 2.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-06-05 04:00:08	OBSERVATION	2021	247	-38	52.17998	38.03	45.10499	108.53160708333	0	0	3.31	3.31	F	F	20.17998	320.17998	154	454.10777006124	49.285046073776	0.46035666825808	88	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-06-04 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	247	-37	54.14	40.87	47.505	110.81094533333	0.0049	0.0049	3.31	3.3149	F	F	22.14	322.14	155	455.48007800163	50.472178023861	0.53095560116684	88	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-06-04 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	247	-37	54.91	41.3	48.105	110.51902533333	0.0075	0.0075	3.31	3.3175	F	F	22.91	322.91	155	455.37443777356	50.327539024449	0.55854793045771	88	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-06-04 04:00:09	FORECAST	2021	247	-37	54.34	41.38	47.86	110.30711191667	0.0076	0.0076	3.31	3.3176	F	F	22.34	322.34	155	455.29770130304	50.222574493035	0.53814219056334	88	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-06-04 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	51.5	41.19	46.345	111.00275333333	0.006	0.006	3.31	3.316	F	F	19.5	307.5	154	455.00748581896	50.507083713182	0.43604161498975	88	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-06-03 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	53.55	41.31	47.43	113.02828266667	0.011	0.021	3.31	3.331	F	F	21.55	321.55	154	455.74075768328	51.511595182147	0.5097051918574	88	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-06-03 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	54.17	41.39	47.78	113.04222266667	0.0073	0.0173	3.31	3.3273	F	F	22.17	322.17	154	455.74579111176	51.518517198252	0.53203429055669	88	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-06-03 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	53.81	41.29	47.55	111.40107466667	0.0042	0.0142	3.31	3.3242	F	F	21.81	321.81	154	455.1519822379	50.704419957966	0.51907675631489	88	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-06-03 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	54.13	41.1	47.615	110.98435066667	0.0044	0.0144	3.31	3.3244	F	F	22.13	321.13	154	455.00080647045	50.497969058933	0.53059598714312	88	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-06-03 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	54.15	40.92	47.535	111.10606891667	0.0043	0.0143	3.31	3.3243	F	F	22.15	322.15	154	455.04497897881	50.558258794603	0.53131518993841	88	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-06-03 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	53.72	40.7	47.21	113.29527733333	0.0037	0.0137	3.31	3.3237	F	F	21.72	305.72	154	455.83713262963	51.644194360106	0.51583368277965	88	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-06-02 19:59:13	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	53.72	40.76	47.24	115.36885866667	0.0041	0.0241	3.31	3.3341	F	F	21.72	321.72	154	456.58339608952	52.675505292998	0.51583368277965	88	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-06-02 16:00:33	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	53.08	40.39	46.735	115.49628666667	0.0043	0.0243	3.31	3.3343	F	F	21.08	321.08	154	456.62912822632	52.738968693977	0.49275422095234	88	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-06-02 11:59:15	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	53.57	39.89	46.73	113.090844	0.0037	0.0137	3.31	3.3237	F	F	21.57	321.57	154	455.76334581478	51.542661442457	0.51042633773822	88	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-06-02 08:00:36	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	54.83	40.51	47.67	112.32731466667	0.004	0.014	3.31	3.324	F	F	22.83	323.83	154	455.48742356212	51.163679153172	0.55569206066678	88	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-06-02 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	54.63	40.73	47.68	111.87887108333	0.0031	0.0131	3.31	3.3231	F	F	22.63	320.63	154	455.32511656658	50.941260017356	0.54854004493709	88	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-06-01 23:59:16	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	55.04	40.61	47.825	112.32860933333	0.0038	0.0138	3.33	3.3438	F	F	23.04	320.04	154	455.48789187847	51.16432146288	0.56318216916699	88	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-06-01 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	57.44	40.79	49.115	115.28148666667	0.0035	0.0135	3.33	3.3435	F	F	25.44	321.44	154	456.55203093893	52.631996867326	0.64655270682399	88	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-06-01 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	57.57	40.06	48.815	115.19997866667	0.0045	0.0045	3.33	3.3345	F	F	25.57	321.57	154	456.52276459426	52.591412742106	0.65091193630836	88	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-06-01 12:00:04	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	57.95	40.13	49.04	112.57876666667	0.0048	0.0048	3.33	3.3348	F	F	25.95	322.95	154	455.57835173667	51.288448958548	0.66353884743079	88	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-06-01 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	53.83	39.87	46.85	112.010452	0.0064	0.0064	3.32	3.3264	F	F	21.83	317.83	154	455.37275934465	51.006508602682	0.51979727546854	88	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-06-01 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	58.18	39.91	49.045	111.77812208333	0.0071	0.0071	3.32	3.3271	F	F	26.18	320.18	154	455.28862663444	50.891307691098	0.67109396102731	88	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-06-01 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	55.58	40.55	48.065	111.67133733333	0.0086	0.0086	3.32	3.3286	F	F	23.58	311.58	154	455.24994043976	50.838369669829	0.58233248414811	88	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-31 19:59:20	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	57.94	40.63	49.285	113.73119733333	0.0089	0.0189	3.32	3.3389	F	F	25.94	327.94	154	455.99434281379	51.860782585438	0.66320883468665	88	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-31 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	57.69	42.52	50.105	113.69653866667	0.0092	0.0092	3.32	3.3292	F	F	25.69	329.69	154	455.98184988129	51.843558026326	0.6549182668807	88	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-31 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	59.38	43.56	51.47	111.43120666667	0.0089	0.0189	3.32	3.3389	F	F	27.38	331.38	154	455.16290707934	50.719351965759	0.7093323479981	88	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-05-31 07:59:58	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	56.77	43.88	50.325	111.34749316667	0.0101	0.0201	3.33	3.3501	F	F	24.77	325.77	154	455.13255333743	50.677868872667	0.62379143817737	88	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-31 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	56.78	44.26	50.52	110.79054916667	0.0101	0.0201	3.32	3.3401	F	F	24.78	329.78	154	454.93044619599	50.40199396669	0.62413457314419	88	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-31 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	60.2	45.12	52.66	111.25401466667	0.0251	0.0451	3.32	3.3651	F	F	28.2	320.2	154	455.09865126843	50.631552022998	0.73420485982206	88	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-05-30 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	60.27	44.58	52.425	113.47782	0.017	0.037	3.31	3.347	F	F	28.27	335.27	154	455.90298599972	51.734876982738	0.73627712674455	88	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-05-30 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	56.06	44.61	50.335	113.64471733333	0.0271	0.0571	3.31	3.3671	F	F	24.06	331.06	154	455.96316850692	51.81780539938	0.59919405818528	88	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-30 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	61.81	44.97	53.39	111.66753333333	0.0038	0.0438	3.31	3.3538	F	F	29.81	334.81	154	455.24856212541	50.836483986091	0.77969755114796	88	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-05-30 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	61.84	44.89	53.365	111.29656533333	0.0038	0.0338	3.32	3.3538	F	F	29.84	327.84	154	455.11408421761	50.652634408245	0.78050068458925	88	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-05-30 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	60.8	44.2	52.5	111.13415766667	0.0037	0.0137	3.32	3.3337	F	F	28.8	330.8	154	455.05517066743	50.572173083986	0.75169567481912	88	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-05-30 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	54.23	40.73	47.48	110.801832	0.099	0.109	3.32	3.429	F	F	22.23	319.23	154	454.93454341546	50.407580850517	0.53419095599273	88	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-29 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	54.19	40.84	47.515	112.91870933333	0.099	0.109	3.31	3.419	F	F	22.19	333.19	154	455.70118694736	51.457189871763	0.53275328666176	88	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-29 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	59.06	42.05	50.555	112.446936	0.0235	0.0335	3.31	3.3435	F	F	27.06	339.06	154	455.53068736818	51.223030048525	0.69933943859533	88	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-05-29 11:59:58	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	53.76	40.25	47.005	112.25543866667	0.4124	0.4424	3.31	3.7524	T	F	21.76	327.76	154	455.46142163096	51.128021680927	0.51727519089543	88	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-29 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	53.28	40.81	47.045	112.55069333333	0.4573	0.5073	3.34	3.8473	T	F	21.28	310.28	154	455.56820294944	51.27451710258	0.49996757862453	88	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-05-29 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	53.31	40.82	47.065	112.61318733333	0.4573	0.5073	3.31	3.8173	T	F	21.31	321.31	154	455.59079416003	51.305531450086	0.50104964082611	88	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-05-29 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	55.17	39.03	47.1	111.70173733333	0.0165	0.0465	3.05	3.0965	F	F	23.17	309.17	154	455.26095488151	50.853439600297	0.56780775415739	88	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-28 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	52.81	40.46	46.635	111.83332	0.0063	0.0063	3.07	3.0763	F	F	20.81	322.81	154	455.30861973365	50.918674569432	0.48302038146493	88	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-05-28 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	52.85	40.47	46.66	112.23566666667	0.0045	0.0045	3.07	3.0745	F	F	20.85	320.85	154	455.45426806058	51.118213411958	0.48446193355587	88	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-05-28 12:00:07	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	41.78	38.66	40.22	112.57716933333	0.0219	0.0619	3.07	3.1319	F	F	9.78	310.78	154	455.57777430432	51.28765624236	0.14916950735733	88	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2021-05-28 07:59:27	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	39.48	38.65	39.065	112.52662308333	0.0173	0.0573	3.1	3.1573	F	F	7.48	297.48	154	455.5595007401	51.262572231813	0.10597951294453	88	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2021-05-28 04:00:30	FORECAST	2021	247	-38	40	39.55	39.775	112.45276174033	0.004	0.014	3.16	3.174	F	F	8	308	154	455.53279404547	51.225920753703	0.11485366769792	88	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L