MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, June 3, 2021

[ Wednesday, June 2, 2021 | Index | Today | Friday, June 4, 2021 ]

DAY 246 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/04/2021 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 59.80°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 45.64°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 52.72°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.777
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 28
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 318

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.45 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.45 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 112 in
SWE DAY: 153
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 454.80 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 50.90 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -39

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-06-04 04:00:08OBSERVATION2021246-3959.7999245.6400452.71998111.92070791667003.453.45FF27.79992317.79992153454.79750898762 50.9012591646310.7769821575174789 4121123.5DRYL
2021-06-04 00:00:02FORECAST2021246-3847.6847.6847.68112.914282666670.00070.00073.453.4507FF15.68305.68154455.6995880928351.4549921009980.32648053998193892121122.5DRYL
2021-06-03 12:00:03FORECAST2021246-3860.3147.4953.9113.340921333330.01170.01173.453.4617FF28.31318.31154455.8536018414351.6668672258260.79190541675949894121123.5DRYL
2021-06-03 08:00:02FORECAST2021246-3859.3547.3753.36112.929062666670.01360.01363.453.4636FF27.35317.35154455.7049263667351.4623301871780.76332846324618894121123.5DRYL
2021-06-03 04:00:08FORECAST2021246-3860.0747.3853.725113.032850250.00710.00713.453.4571FF28.07318.07154455.7424069571551.5138632381620.78495835538658894121123.5DRYL
2021-06-03 00:00:06FORECAST2021246-3959.8746.7453.305115.174881333330.01270.01273.453.4627FF27.87301.87153455.9754620545852.5169197330480.77906781408745894121123.5DRYL
2021-06-02 19:59:10FORECAST2021246-3959.8546.6853.265117.2621840.01060.02063.453.4706FF27.85317.85153456.7259191741353.5566787717660.7784737316974894121123.5DRYL
2021-06-02 16:00:33FORECAST2021246-3959.6346.6253.125117.328549333330.00610.01613.453.4661FF27.63317.63153456.7497145934353.5897814216610.77187895741106894121123.5DRYL
2021-06-02 11:59:15FORECAST2021246-3960.447.6554.025114.987886666670.00180.01183.453.4618FF28.4318.4153455.9080366490152.4239016486190.79447609286866894121123.5DRYL
2021-06-02 08:00:36FORECAST2021246-3960.646.7853.69114.306740.00150.01153.453.4615FF28.6318.6153455.6621619394652.0852562726520.80012090080079894121123.5DRYL
2021-06-02 04:00:08FORECAST2021246-3960.4346.9753.7113.850205750.00580.00583.453.4558FF28.43316.43153455.4971277017651.858441707380.79532878547364894121123.5DRYL
2021-06-01 23:59:16FORECAST2021246-3960.9546.7253.835114.318202666670.00230.03233.453.4823FF28.95314.95153455.6663031584852.0909527928420.80977256254274894121123.5DRYL
2021-06-01 20:00:05FORECAST2021246-3961.1947.5554.37117.388941333330.00410.03413.453.4841FF29.19314.19153456.7713647768753.6199069425390.81622271808945894121123.5DRYL
2021-06-01 16:00:06FORECAST2021246-3960.7948.2454.515117.355922666670.00410.02413.453.4741FF28.79313.79153456.7595281869453.603435867170.80539633510612894121123.5DRYL
2021-06-01 12:00:03FORECAST2021246-3961.3148.2154.76114.726674666670.00370.02373.453.4737FF29.31315.31153455.8137967773952.2940011714580.81939619937159894121123.5DRYL
2021-06-01 08:00:06FORECAST2021246-3961.7248.5155.115114.1270360.00390.01393.453.4639FF29.72313.72153455.5972229204851.9959606617450.82997814270796894121123.5DRYL
2021-06-01 04:00:08FORECAST2021246-3959.4448.9254.18113.977198083330.00360.01363.453.4636FF27.44312.44153455.5430538398751.9215208829940.76609586995462894121123.5DRYL
2021-06-01 00:00:06FORECAST2021246-3963.4349.3956.41113.9255720.00390.01393.453.4639FF31.43306.43153455.5243853137251.8958761568140.86974321587514895121124DRYL
2021-05-31 19:59:20FORECAST2021246-3965.4849.1357.305115.993577333330.00560.00563.463.4656FF33.48320.48153456.2702857580452.9244226759770.90831142829688895121124DRYL
2021-05-31 16:00:06FORECAST2021246-3966.5148.857.655115.964221333330.00480.00483.463.4648FF34.51321.51153456.2597248523152.9098037182590.92415993508184895121124DRYL
2021-05-31 12:00:05FORECAST2021246-3967.3748.9158.14113.863162666670.00590.00593.463.4659FF35.37322.37153455.501814184151.8648771634060.93572232583749895121124DRYL
2021-05-31 07:59:58FORECAST2021246-3966.7948.8857.835113.831601166670.00920.00923.473.4792FF34.79318.79153455.4903982036551.8492013435640.92808602952321895121124DRYL
2021-05-31 04:00:08FORECAST2021246-3966.8248.8957.855113.278921166670.00960.00963.463.4696FF34.82322.82153455.2903421921251.5747987811260.92849729588345895121124DRYL
2021-05-31 00:00:06FORECAST2021246-3965.0648.8456.95113.764417333330.01550.01553.463.4755FF33.06310.06153455.4660943677351.8158348408330.90119024608436895121124DRYL
2021-05-30 20:00:06FORECAST2021246-3964.6546.7255.685115.960725333330.01890.01893.453.4689FF32.65324.65153456.2584671037452.9080627848250.89385753175957895121124DRYL
2021-05-30 16:00:05FORECAST2021246-3964.746.7655.73116.028730666670.01830.02833.453.4783FF32.7324.7153456.2829312351352.9419293360780.89477218128729895121124DRYL
2021-05-30 12:00:06FORECAST2021246-3963.1847.9955.585114.305965333330.02730.03733.453.4873FF31.18323.18153455.6618820644352.0848712949780.86436839613094895121124DRYL
2021-05-30 08:00:05FORECAST2021246-3960.8248.3354.575113.934669333330.00920.02923.463.4892FF28.82315.82153455.5276751813151.9003950439640.80622150131253894121123.5DRYL
2021-05-30 04:00:08FORECAST2021246-3960.8448.9654.9113.729676333330.00780.00783.463.4678FF28.84319.84153455.4535251405351.7985819991080.80677042783365894121123.5DRYL
2021-05-30 00:00:06FORECAST2021246-3966.849.9358.365112.934761333330.01210.01213.463.4721FF34.8314.8153455.165623176751.4040210205990.92822331869129895121124DRYL
2021-05-29 20:00:05FORECAST2021246-3966.3648.457.38115.063993333330.01230.01233.453.4623FF34.36329.36153455.9354825950952.4617573297520.92199082171081895121124DRYL
2021-05-29 16:00:06FORECAST2021246-3966.1150.3558.23114.89480.00940.00943.453.4594FF34.11330.11153455.87446008152.3776049161150.91827186733666895121124DRYL
2021-05-29 11:59:58FORECAST2021246-396044.8552.425114.036533333330.03020.03023.453.4802FF28324153455.5645070570851.9509970944980.78290709181915894121123.5DRYL
2021-05-29 08:00:06FORECAST2021246-3957.4843.0150.245114.184680.04850.04853.483.5285FF25.48307.48153455.6180567644952.0246020138760.70197110877235894121123.5DRYL
2021-05-29 04:00:08FORECAST2021246-3957.543.0250.26114.2484860.04850.04853.453.4985FF25.5317.5153455.6411141378652.0563074496040.70266389893815894121123.5DRYL
2021-05-29 00:00:06FORECAST2021246-3954.7239.6447.18113.493765333330.02650.02653.193.2165FF22.72303.72153455.3681436487551.6814452355470.60031002237029893121123DRYL
2021-05-28 20:00:06FORECAST2021246-3956.3241.0348.675113.325938666670.0020.0023.213.212FF24.32320.32153455.3073722551551.5981353426680.6606017266379893121123DRYL
2021-05-28 16:00:06FORECAST2021246-3956.3641.0448.7113.3358880.0020.0023.213.212FF24.36318.36153455.3109757116451.6030737484250.66206477881636893121123DRYL
2021-05-28 12:00:07FORECAST2021246-3954.839.5547.175113.071465333330.03660.03663.213.2466FF22.8318.8153455.2151759681851.4718469886930.60339609121617893121123DRYL
2021-05-28 07:59:27FORECAST2021246-3954.8239.5847.2112.873701750.03660.03663.243.2766FF22.82307.82153455.1434845939951.3737299335180.60416660594675893121123DRYL
2021-05-28 04:00:30FORECAST2021246-3956.6340.848.715112.663447073670.00820.00823.33.3082FF24.63317.63153455.0672255615151.2694422820080.67187553547096893121123DRYL
2021-05-27 23:59:21FORECAST2021246-3962.3446.8554.595114.269125951510.00430.00433.353.3543FF30.34320.34153455.648571932352.0665640557560.84521039468395894121123.5DRYL
2021-05-27 20:00:06FORECAST2021246-3962.3746.7454.555113.966049544990.00130.00133.373.3713FF30.37322.37153455.5390226202451.9159828216170.84592389269345894121123.5DRYL
2021-05-27 15:59:27FORECAST2021246-3962.3447.8555.095114.687431156760.0010.0013.373.371FF30.34323.34153455.7996331297452.2744890458440.84521039468395894121123.5DRYL
2021-05-27 12:00:06FORECAST2021246-3959.1349.6254.375114.785634450120.0020.0123.393.402FF27.13321.13153455.8350737084652.3233181402420.75648861653722894121123.5DRYL
2021-05-27 07:59:37FORECAST2021246-3952.0649.6350.845115.589588438430.00060.01063.523.5306FF20.06305.06153456.1248804156552.7232872037750.49530280025346892121122.5DRYL
2021-05-27 04:00:08FORECAST2021246-3952.2750.3551.31115.3085491614500.013.643.65FF20.27311.27153456.0236395672452.5834242618250.5036780289064893121123DRYL