MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, June 24, 2021

[ Wednesday, June 23, 2021 | Index | Today | Friday, June 25, 2021 ]

DAY 267 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/25/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 65.88°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 47.70°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 56.79°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.840
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 94 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 34
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 410

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.21 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.21 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 62 in
SWE DAY: 174
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 447.83 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 27.67 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -18

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-06-25 04:00:07OBSERVATION2021267-1865.8799647.6999656.7899661.784653333333002.212.21FF33.87996409.87996174447.82927656502 27.6689766050870.8395737095944994 4131124DRYL
2021-06-25 00:00:01FORECAST2021267-1757.5657.5657.5663.860272002.212.21FF25.56401.56175449.1845719216128.6850489411180.59089695479276943131123.5DRYL
2021-06-24 12:00:03FORECAST2021267-1767.3557.2162.2863.8178706666670.00650.00652.212.2165FF35.35411.35175449.168554498728.6649807185320.87025382228407945131124.5DRYL
2021-06-24 08:00:03FORECAST2021267-1763.5651.1557.35563.3864413333330.00860.00862.212.2186FF31.56407.56175449.0054807091228.4608595613140.78228345031664944131124DRYL
2021-06-24 04:00:07FORECAST2021267-1767.2750.0758.6762.81542350.00610.00612.212.2161FF35.27411.27175448.7893696032928.1908943139290.8686963570146945131124.5DRYL
2021-06-24 00:00:06FORECAST2021267-1868.1647.6557.90564.5169680.00510.00512.212.2151FF36.16394.16174448.867173569728.9595490734470.8853064253734945121118DRYL
2021-06-23 20:00:02FORECAST2021267-1866.8248.2257.5266.6718933333330.00370.01372.212.2237FF34.82409.82174449.6806778939929.9810621906090.85969610934793945131124.5DRYL
2021-06-23 16:00:01FORECAST2021267-1867.5549.5958.5766.6034506666670.00120.01122.212.2212FF35.55410.55174449.6549085589629.9485685192310.8740915246737945131124.5DRYL
2021-06-23 12:00:05FORECAST2021267-1867.8149.3258.56564.64775066666700.012.212.22FF35.81410.81174448.9166722603929.0214530983990.87896153330146945131124.5DRYL
2021-06-23 08:00:05FORECAST2021267-1867.6649.0258.3464.212604002.212.21FF35.66409.66174448.7519140457228.815528950860.87616828791029945131124.5DRYL
2021-06-23 04:00:07FORECAST2021267-1867.6749.2658.46564.278481166667002.212.21FF35.67409.67174448.7768686092828.8466954969380.8763558921908945131124.5DRYL
2021-06-23 00:00:05FORECAST2021267-1867.6549.3258.48566.255445333333002.212.21FF35.65398.65174449.5238118176429.7834003399150.87598048507159945121124DRYL
2021-06-22 20:00:05FORECAST2021267-1867.1549.1558.1568.47580666666700.022.212.23FF35.15412.15174450.358256417530.8386448971820.8663361073877945131124.5DRYL
2021-06-22 16:00:05FORECAST2021267-1868.1149.858.95568.3528613333330.00040.01042.212.2204FF36.11412.11174450.3121747177930.7801256351970.88441474637719945131119DRYL
2021-06-22 12:00:05FORECAST2021267-1867.6549.5958.6266.27634800.012.212.22FF35.65412.65174449.5316893118529.793318677860.87598048507159945131124.5DRYL
2021-06-22 08:00:05FORECAST2021267-1867.7649.6758.71565.81184533333300.012.212.22FF35.76408.76174449.3565356168329.5729828215380.8780354043188945131124.5DRYL
2021-06-22 04:00:07FORECAST2021267-1867.5649.4658.5165.350577002.212.21FF35.56412.56174449.1823968979629.3543288155240.87428131591045945131124.5DRYL
2021-06-22 00:00:03FORECAST2021267-1867.0249.5958.30567.7967946666670.00050.01052.212.2205FF35.02396.02174450.1035730150530.5155795184350.86374653060819945121124DRYL
2021-06-21 20:00:05FORECAST2021267-1867.7949.0758.4370.9769760.00020.00022.222.2202FF35.79410.79174451.2926135898132.0313850037410.87859167533407945131124.5DRYL
2021-06-21 16:00:05FORECAST2021267-1868.9849.1859.0870.8537573333330.00440.01442.222.2344FF36.98410.98174451.2467219013431.9725257310590.89923866368302945131119DRYL
2021-06-21 12:00:05FORECAST2021267-1871.5449.1860.3668.1976133333330.01120.01122.222.2312FF39.54413.54174450.2539649462830.7062458032060.93478742949236945131119DRYL
2021-06-21 08:00:05FORECAST2021267-1867.025058.5167.5076106666670.01490.01492.222.2349FF35.02410.02174449.9949726156230.3780854132930.86374653060819945131124.5DRYL
2021-06-21 04:00:06FORECAST2021267-1871.9950.5161.2566.998231250.00060.00062.222.2206FF39.99417.99174449.8034857347130.136037954310.93988390854445945131119DRYL
2021-06-21 00:00:05FORECAST2021267-1869.9249.1259.5268.5600733333330.00210.00212.222.2221FF37.92402.92174450.3898324795130.8787599433830.91364673808976945131119DRYL
2021-06-20 20:00:05FORECAST2021267-1866.7849.4458.1170.6237053333330.00190.00192.222.2219FF34.78412.78174451.1610026444931.8626617086560.8588763400898945131124.5DRYL
2021-06-20 16:00:05FORECAST2021267-1869.0748.9459.00570.5407760.00250.00252.222.2225FF37.07415.07174451.1300902121531.8230666405150.90068944035184945131119DRYL
2021-06-20 12:00:05FORECAST2021267-1871.9348.1160.0268.1075626666670.00070.00072.222.2207FF39.93412.93174450.2201901991230.6633998177850.93922290756403945131119DRYL
2021-06-20 08:00:05FORECAST2021267-1866.6147.2256.91567.8063493333330.00120.00122.212.2112FF34.61406.61174450.1071598213430.520123316280.85535623836831945131124.5DRYL
2021-06-20 04:00:07FORECAST2021267-1871.3247.2359.27567.01144750.00120.00122.222.2212FF39.32419.32174449.8084571438830.1423158109530.93217720055396945131119DRYL
2021-06-20 00:00:06FORECAST2021267-1869.3945.4657.42568.0902160.00080.00082.222.2208FF37.39402.39174450.2136832045930.6551469355560.90572444058503945131119DRYL
2021-06-19 20:00:05FORECAST2021267-1869.4345.9657.69570.1085840.00080.00082.222.2208FF37.43419.43174450.9688824806631.6167897787810.90634037781725945131119DRYL
2021-06-19 16:00:06FORECAST2021267-1868.8143.7156.2670.1260773333330.00140.01142.222.2314FF36.81417.81174450.9754109357531.6251365427130.8964563937786945131119DRYL
2021-06-19 12:00:05FORECAST2021267-1868.7145.0756.8968.436440.00350.01352.222.2335FF36.71417.71174450.3435027842330.8199061076830.8947940266408945131119DRYL
2021-06-19 08:00:05FORECAST2021267-1868.7545.0656.90568.0497826666670.00350.01352.222.2335FF36.75410.75174450.1985149425230.6359110986940.89546126875753945131119DRYL
2021-06-19 04:00:07FORECAST2021267-1868.7944.5156.6567.6092130.00350.00352.212.2135FF36.79413.79174450.0331375303730.4263862523490.89612544967207945131119DRYL
2021-06-19 00:00:06FORECAST2021267-1871.0947.4559.2767.6847013333330.0030.0032.222.223FF39.09406.09174450.0614868588630.4622773196780.92936310232971945131119DRYL
2021-06-18 20:00:06FORECAST2021267-1870.7546.8658.80569.7213826666670.0030.0032.222.223FF38.75426.75174450.8243059088931.4320939477080.92504046289777945131119DRYL
2021-06-18 16:00:05FORECAST2021267-1870.7946.8658.82569.7167906666670.0030.0032.222.223FF38.79426.79174450.8225904550531.4299041665590.92555920713445945131119DRYL
2021-06-18 12:00:06FORECAST2021267-1867.446.4556.92568.467220.00230.02232.222.2423FF35.4418.4174450.3550384773130.8345574975350.87122073537577945131124.5DRYL
2021-06-18 08:00:06FORECAST2021267-1866.8246.4356.62567.9941893333330.00230.02232.222.2423FF34.82410.82174450.1776569764630.6094648420940.85969610934793945131124.5DRYL
2021-06-18 04:00:07FORECAST2021267-1866.8946.4256.65567.68423650.00230.02232.222.2423FF34.89415.89174450.0613123092730.4620563018410.86112293247515945131124.5DRYL
2021-06-18 00:00:05FORECAST2021267-1870.8153.5162.1666.9596973333330.0010.0012.222.221FF38.81427.81174449.7889899089330.1177346281670.92581755283874945131119DRYL
2021-06-17 20:00:05FORECAST2021267-1870.853.3962.09569.5528306666670.00070.00072.212.2107FF38.8441.8174450.7613260762531.3517261836640.92568846542409945131119DRYL
2021-06-17 16:00:05FORECAST2021267-1870.6651.4661.0670.3781333333330.00020.00022.212.2102FF38.66441.66174451.0694452206431.7454255583310.92386324691463945131119DRYL
2021-06-17 12:00:06FORECAST2021267-1863.9949.156.54569.151140.00070.00072.212.2107FF31.99437.99174450.6111247151531.1602729707350.79370948605896944131124DRYL
2021-06-17 08:00:05FORECAST2021267-1852.5748.1650.36569.8545906666670.00070.00072.212.2107FF20.57419.57174450.8740603052631.4956229248420.40998435265856942131123DRYL
2021-06-17 04:00:07FORECAST2021267-1850.7848.349.5469.6467058333330.00020.00022.222.2202FF18.78415.78174450.7964060693431.3964846842350.34764815462081942131123DRYL