MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, June 23, 2021

[ Tuesday, June 22, 2021 | Index | Today | Thursday, June 24, 2021 ]

DAY 266 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/24/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 65.78°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 47.33°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 56.56°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.834
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 34
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 377

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.70 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.70 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 66 in
SWE DAY: 173
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 448.78 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 29.52 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -19

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-06-24 04:00:07OBSERVATION2021266-1965.7800647.3300656.5550665.7774275002.72.7FF33.78006376.78006173448.77796073637 29.5194597759350.8336651390893591 4121123.5DRYL
2021-06-24 00:00:04FORECAST2021266-1847.7847.7847.7867.913736002.72.7FF15.78358.78174450.1474666143930.5711962087180.22907273035794911121122DRYL
2021-06-23 12:00:03FORECAST2021266-1864.7451.7258.2368.054960.00910.00912.72.7091FF32.74375.74174450.2004572672930.6383741113070.80781214111139914121123.5DRYL
2021-06-23 08:00:03FORECAST2021266-1864.4750.6757.5767.5849360.00430.00432.72.7043FF32.47375.47174450.0240192491430.4148445394160.80071950162197914121123.5DRYL
2021-06-23 04:00:07FORECAST2021266-1864.3850.1957.28567.66453450.00250.00252.72.7025FF32.38375.38174450.0539138208830.4526885785930.79832077045015914121123.5DRYL
2021-06-23 00:00:05FORECAST2021266-1965.7551.0858.41569.6482226666670.00340.00342.72.7034FF33.75363.75173450.2369178888931.3582011098790.83295089711974914121123.5DRYL
2021-06-22 20:00:02FORECAST2021266-1965.6248.9157.26571.8408680.0050.0152.72.715FF33.62377.62173451.0570149085632.404327468520.82983935318014914121123.5DRYL
2021-06-22 16:00:02FORECAST2021266-1965.4550.4757.9671.7963146666670.00230.01232.72.7123FF33.45377.45173451.0403964133232.3830382282690.82571489184422914121123.5DRYL
2021-06-22 12:00:05FORECAST2021266-1965.5850.8658.2269.6851426666670.00040.01042.72.7104FF33.58377.58173450.2507646109431.3757887676890.8288745494079914121123.5DRYL
2021-06-22 08:00:05FORECAST2021266-1965.650.2657.9369.2331586666670.00060.01062.72.7106FF33.6373.6173450.0811601395731.160540372820.82935738672678914121123.5DRYL
2021-06-22 04:00:07FORECAST2021266-1965.5550.2857.91568.740566333333002.72.7FF33.55377.55173449.8960957436730.9261124125760.82814866093014914121123.5DRYL
2021-06-22 00:00:03FORECAST2021266-1965.3849.2757.32571.1203093333330.00150.01152.72.7115FF33.38362.38173450.7880139950732.0601829990880.82399831924383914121123.5DRYL
2021-06-21 20:00:05FORECAST2021266-1965.1948.356.74574.3339466666670.00020.01022.72.7102FF33.19376.19173451.9839483734233.5977507125790.81928544446886914121123.5DRYL
2021-06-21 16:00:05FORECAST2021266-1965.3148.9157.1174.2669800.022.72.72FF33.31375.31173451.9591266230133.5656394177280.8222711059478914121123.5DRYL
2021-06-21 12:00:05FORECAST2021266-1965.4448.857.1271.7272213333330.0010.0112.72.711FF33.44375.44173451.0146207219732.3500255250940.82547031903885914121123.5DRYL
2021-06-21 08:00:05FORECAST2021266-1965.7348.5857.15571.0712213333330.00040.01042.72.7104FF33.73375.73173450.7696704112732.0367510161530.83247459498184914121123.5DRYL
2021-06-21 04:00:06FORECAST2021266-1966.1948.757.44570.74502991666700.012.72.71FF34.19379.19173450.6477185654631.8810863317910.84320879941917914121123.5DRYL
2021-06-21 00:00:05FORECAST2021266-1965.0448.6656.8571.9854320.00040.01042.72.7104FF33.04366.04173451.1109246619432.4734147917090.81550953231482914121123.5DRYL
2021-06-20 20:00:05FORECAST2021266-1967.7649.0658.4173.9587546666670.00040.00042.712.7104FF35.76378.76173451.8448258934333.4178806256550.87637864787826915121124DRYL
2021-06-20 16:00:05FORECAST2021266-1966.9548.9657.95573.8922253333330.0010.0012.712.711FF34.95378.95173451.8201427464133.3859957979570.85993257064686915121124DRYL
2021-06-20 12:00:05FORECAST2021266-1963.0949.0756.0871.6512746666670.00170.00172.712.7117FF31.09374.09173450.9862831332932.3137420436820.76208255031492914121123.5DRYL
2021-06-20 08:00:05FORECAST2021266-1962.8649.256.0371.1584546666670.00170.00172.72.7017FF30.86372.86173450.8022668593732.0783926699430.75526656021281914121123.5DRYL
2021-06-20 04:00:07FORECAST2021266-1967.4149.1858.29570.4798288333330.00130.00132.712.7113FF35.41381.41173450.5484944300131.7545807685430.86944560826113915121124DRYL
2021-06-20 00:00:05FORECAST2021266-1964.8345.9655.39571.3431013333330.00060.00062.712.7106FF32.83365.83173450.8712398933332.1665525559960.81014168334474914121123.5DRYL
2021-06-19 20:00:05FORECAST2021266-1964.646.0355.31573.3611960.00020.00022.712.7102FF32.6382.6173451.6229751744733.1316015998770.80415390960052914121123.5DRYL
2021-06-19 16:00:06FORECAST2021266-1964.7946.4755.6373.32424133333300.012.712.72FF32.79381.79173451.6092442585733.113905214380.80910847765991914121123.5DRYL
2021-06-19 12:00:05FORECAST2021266-1965.9146.2256.06571.6479426666670.00060.01062.712.7206FF33.91381.91173450.9850397561132.312150271970.83672991587557914121123.5DRYL
2021-06-19 08:00:05FORECAST2021266-1961.4146.1353.7771.2622693333330.0010.0112.712.721FF29.41375.41173450.8410498372432.1279563200240.70998834022215914121123.5DRYL
2021-06-19 04:00:07FORECAST2021266-1961.4246.1353.77570.7818476666670.0010.0012.72.701FF29.42378.42173450.6614885257131.898652830060.71031356638709914121123.5DRYL
2021-06-19 00:00:06FORECAST2021266-1968.2248.7358.47571.1318173333330.00110.00112.712.7111FF36.22368.22173450.7923140626532.0656765391750.88509375698553915121118DRYL
2021-06-18 20:00:06FORECAST2021266-1967.9548.1358.0473.1186426666670.00110.00112.712.7111FF35.95388.95173451.5328282591133.0154675217470.88003272991305915121124DRYL
2021-06-18 16:00:05FORECAST2021266-1967.9848.0858.0373.1153626666670.00110.00112.712.7111FF35.98388.98173451.5316088398533.0138973357890.88060267893316915121124DRYL
2021-06-18 12:00:06FORECAST2021266-1966.6249.5158.06571.5533720.01950.01952.712.7295FF34.62383.62173450.9497451490632.2669748679560.85282545458365915121124DRYL
2021-06-18 08:00:06FORECAST2021266-1966.3549.4257.88571.0328360.01980.01982.712.7298FF34.35377.35173450.7553246892132.0184290547750.84683419952096914121123.5DRYL
2021-06-18 04:00:07FORECAST2021266-1966.3749.4457.90570.7244138333330.01980.01982.712.7298FF34.37382.37173450.640007519731.871250381680.84728344719687914121123.5DRYL
2021-06-18 00:00:05FORECAST2021266-1972.954.6963.79570.688510666667002.712.71FF40.9389.9173450.6265776732131.8541216425360.95018292010141915121118DRYL
2021-06-17 20:00:05FORECAST2021266-1972.9454.8763.90572.700865333333002.72.7FF40.94403.94173451.3774276494632.815529582050.95057395020655915131119DRYL
2021-06-17 16:00:05FORECAST2021266-1972.2653.7162.98572.7289093333330.00040.00042.72.7004FF40.26404.26173451.3878643384532.8289470596380.9435859620435915131119DRYL
2021-06-17 12:00:06FORECAST2021266-1971.8653.7862.8270.582040.00150.00152.72.7015FF39.86406.86173450.5867443266631.8033316115340.93912632198641915131119DRYL
2021-06-17 08:00:05FORECAST2021266-1970.2752.2161.2470.6347386666670.00150.00152.72.7015FF38.27400.27173450.6064615658831.8284696542170.91864208990307915131119DRYL
2021-06-17 04:00:07FORECAST2021266-1970.2952.1961.2470.1290298333330.00150.00152.712.7115FF38.29398.29173450.4171413865531.5873171457420.91892850635977915121118DRYL
2021-06-17 00:00:05FORECAST2021266-1972.5450.8261.6870.7925066666670.00440.00442.732.7344FF40.54390.54173450.6654747865931.9037386282670.94655199355594915121118DRYL
2021-06-16 20:00:05FORECAST2021266-1971.7849.9660.8772.3229373333330.00420.00422.732.7342FF39.78404.78173451.2367076629832.6347641308090.93820228195721915131119DRYL
2021-06-16 16:00:06FORECAST2021266-1971.849.9860.8972.9318693333330.00420.00422.722.7242FF39.8405.8173451.4633745750832.9260678432950.938434308693915131119DRYL
2021-06-16 12:00:06FORECAST2021266-1961.0653.7657.4171.686180.00290.00292.722.7229FF29.06397.06173450.9993078594432.3304175630870.69849923975395913121123DRYL
2021-06-16 08:00:06FORECAST2021266-1955.5253.7954.65572.0677533333330.00060.00062.722.7206FF23.52384.52173451.1416144891632.5127625914070.49746169984706912121122.5DRYL
2021-06-16 04:00:07FORECAST2021266-1957.454.5655.9872.218590333333002.722.72FF25.4398.4173451.1978306698132.5848712924310.56839385136664913121123DRYL