Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, June 16, 2021

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DAY 259 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/17/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 56.36°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.29°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 44.32°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.674 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 24 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 338 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.58 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.88 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.46 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 95 in SWE DAY: 166 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 455.61 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 43.16 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -26 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 9.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-06-17 04:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	259	-26	56.35994	32.28998	44.32496	94.720939166667	0	0.58	2.88	3.46	T	F	24.35994	338.35994	166	455.6126639324	43.156059423903	0.67355820074319	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-06-17 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	259	-25	47.11	47.11	47.11	94.917398666667	0.0012	0.5812	2.88	3.4612	T	F	15.11	329.11	167	456.22304524778	43.303504666705	0.32367237019556	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-06-16 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	259	-25	57.7	46.98	52.34	94.543625333333	0.0115	0.5915	2.88	3.4715	T	F	25.7	339.7	167	456.0884755069	43.120257947176	0.71944636241251	92	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2021-06-16 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	259	-25	54.14	39.29	46.715	94.374104	0.0073	0.5873	2.88	3.4673	T	F	22.14	336.14	167	456.02740055896	43.037177327201	0.59174319672262	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-06-16 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	259	-25	58.67	37.88	48.275	94.529259666667	0.0068	0.5868	2.88	3.4668	T	F	26.67	340.67	167	456.08330088109	43.113216778619	0.75058933782623	92	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2021-06-16 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	59.03	38.42	48.725	94.937754666667	0.0083	0.2583	2.88	3.1383	F	F	27.03	337.03	166	455.69100161347	43.262280514987	0.76166240084142	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-06-15 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	58.85	38.3	48.575	95.966837333333	0.0069	0.4069	2.88	3.2869	F	F	26.85	345.85	166	456.06223205887	43.76685003787	0.75615973850721	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-06-15 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	58.75	37.23	47.99	96.001386666667	0.0051	0.4051	2.88	3.2851	F	F	26.75	345.75	166	456.07467852956	43.783801562392	0.75307337667178	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-06-15 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	58.52	38.61	48.565	95.183190666667	0.0067	0.4067	2.88	3.2867	F	F	26.52	345.52	166	455.77962813301	43.382559246567	0.74589625348262	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-06-15 08:00:04	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	58.68	38.32	48.5	94.960205333333	0.0073	0.4673	2.88	3.3473	F	F	26.68	345.68	166	455.69911080678	43.273281132429	0.75090056624282	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-06-15 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	58.88	38.21	48.545	94.8434025	0.0098	0.4398	2.88	3.3198	F	F	26.88	344.88	166	455.65691650243	43.216052333749	0.75708157696803	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-06-15 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	59.25	38.26	48.755	95.620014666667	0.007	0.217	2.88	3.097	F	F	27.25	342.25	166	455.93722792264	43.596724421042	0.76829462917327	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-06-14 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	59.6	38.29	48.945	96.582021333333	0.0068	0.4768	2.88	3.3568	F	F	27.6	352.6	166	456.28369005889	44.06880108732	0.77863111181609	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-06-14 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	59.89	38.3	49.095	96.523637333333	0.0025	0.4425	2.88	3.3225	F	F	27.89	352.89	166	456.26268745997	44.040134173118	0.78699253325753	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-06-14 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	59.91	38.83	49.37	95.398324	0.0061	0.4661	2.88	3.3461	F	F	27.91	352.91	166	455.85726698515	43.488019253604	0.78756232247577	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-06-14 08:00:04	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	60.05	38.32	49.185	95.056001333333	0.0054	0.4954	2.88	3.3754	F	F	28.05	354.05	166	455.73370717959	43.320223877308	0.79152588984996	92	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2021-06-14 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	60.19	38.28	49.235	95.194712761905	0.0039	0.5839	2.88	3.4639	T	F	28.19	353.19	166	455.78378738428	43.388206721579	0.79544559760943	92	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2021-06-14 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	60.73	38.38	49.555	95.410497333333	0.004	0.674	2.25	2.924	F	F	28.73	348.73	166	455.86165891644	43.493987592416	0.81014942282955	92	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2021-06-13 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	63.51	37.96	50.735	96.447014666667	0.0067	0.5867	2.67	3.2567	F	F	31.51	357.51	166	456.23511910075	44.002515223358	0.87520005286121	92	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2021-06-13 16:00:05	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	63.89	37.94	50.915	96.165317333333	0.0019	1.4419	2.67	4.1119	T	F	31.89	363.89	166	456.13372001627	43.864243931799	0.88270907645281	92	5	1	2	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2021-06-13 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	64.75	38.45	51.6	94.760657333333	0.0016	1.4116	2.67	4.0816	T	F	32.75	364.75	166	455.62701774435	43.175515700281	0.89851094954957	92	5	1	2	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2021-06-13 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	60.9	38.54	49.72	94.382965333333	0.0021	0.5021	2.69	3.1921	F	F	28.9	362.9	166	455.49046442173	42.99054071318	0.81464075642638	92	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2021-06-13 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	65.39	38.52	51.955	93.891749916667	0.0028	0.5328	2.81	3.3428	F	F	33.39	363.39	166	455.31267098073	42.750103437612	0.90922468971801	92	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2021-06-13 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	65.13	39.94	52.535	94.354685333333	0.0082	0.4782	2.83	3.3082	F	F	33.13	362.13	166	455.48023460649	42.976694211848	0.90497774767113	92	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-06-12 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	65.08	36.9	50.99	95.528908	0.0105	0.5205	2.87	3.3905	F	F	33.08	374.08	166	455.90437238363	43.552046846234	0.90414457001003	92	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2021-06-12 16:00:05	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	65.15	39.59	52.37	95.323962666667	0.0133	0.5933	2.96	3.5533	T	F	33.15	376.15	166	455.8304357343	43.451563438267	0.90530952578745	92	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2021-06-12 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	64.98	39.48	52.23	94.019670666667	0.0127	0.6627	3.15	3.8127	T	F	32.98	373.98	166	455.35899274522	42.81270253301	0.90246217126313	92	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2021-06-12 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	59.69	38.66	49.175	93.987472	0.0128	0.6828	3.32	4.0028	T	F	27.69	362.69	166	455.34733460733	42.796944861681	0.78124588334028	92	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2021-06-12 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	59.71	38.62	49.165	93.619345583333	0.0128	0.6628	3.24	3.9028	T	F	27.71	367.71	166	455.21397967005	42.616834877095	0.7818245250302	92	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2021-06-12 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	64.56	39.7	52.13	100.186824	0.0072	0.7472	3.05	3.7972	T	F	32.56	370.56	166	457.57443894797	45.842929781779	0.89516026618571	92	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2021-06-11 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	64.02	36.62	50.32	101.20475466667	0.0059	0.9859	3.74	4.7259	T	F	32.02	379.02	166	457.93678820861	46.345380303494	0.88520317971592	92	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2021-06-11 16:00:05	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	63.99	36.68	50.335	101.104004	0.008	1.008	3.65	4.658	T	F	31.99	376.99	166	457.90096610253	46.295621108434	0.88463098300765	92	5	1	2	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2021-06-11 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	63.12	40.67	51.895	100.37999866667	0.0165	0.9865	3.51	4.4965	T	F	31.12	379.12	166	457.64327471143	45.938231305342	0.867151745438	92	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2021-06-11 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	62.82	40.14	51.48	100.49512666667	0.0157	0.8057	3.42	4.2257	T	F	30.82	375.82	166	457.68428330489	45.995040024067	0.86072316544833	92	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2021-06-11 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	62.8	40.13	51.465	100.53688441667	0.0157	0.7657	3.56	4.3257	T	F	30.8	377.8	166	457.69915445205	46.015646988751	0.86028721391229	92	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2021-06-11 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	62.44	39.86	51.15	92.874714666667	0.0078	0.7378	3.36	4.0978	T	F	30.44	378.44	166	454.94385330497	42.252780565053	0.85228181210387	92	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2021-06-10 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	62.43	39.78	51.105	94.198778666667	0.0078	0.6778	3.37	4.0478	T	F	30.43	382.43	166	455.42382479314	42.900368071216	0.85205515239451	92	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2021-06-10 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	63.01	39.77	51.39	94.207306666667	0.0082	0.7182	3.13	3.8482	T	F	31.01	381.01	166	455.42691095325	42.904542664425	0.86481866873472	92	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2021-06-10 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	58.88	37.89	48.385	94.038824	0.0632	0.9432	3.01	3.9532	T	F	26.88	374.88	166	455.36592712052	42.822076276083	0.75708157696803	92	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2021-06-10 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	59.87	40.14	50.005	93.929764	0.0628	0.6628	3.09	3.7528	T	F	27.87	363.87	166	455.32643794566	42.768704859197	0.78642185506927	92	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2021-06-10 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	59.86	40.13	49.995	94.070143833333	0.0628	0.6628	3.02	3.6828	T	F	27.86	373.86	166	455.37726559376	42.837404872835	0.78613618286287	92	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2021-06-10 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	65.5	38.69	52.095	94.17356	0.0066	0.5166	3.33	3.8466	T	F	33.5	377.5	166	455.41469813055	42.888023399279	0.91097859002475	92	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2021-06-09 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	61.67	37.78	49.725	95.702241333333	0.0123	0.4223	2.64	3.0623	F	F	29.67	393.67	166	455.96687456546	43.63705186967	0.83414920541475	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-06-09 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	60.21	37.77	48.99	96.566357333333	0.0123	0.4123	2.84	3.2523	F	F	28.21	390.21	166	456.27805552099	44.061109752798	0.79600196105734	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-06-09 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	52.47	41.38	46.925	95.428962666667	0.005	0.355	2.72	3.075	F	F	20.47	384.47	166	455.86832063491	43.503040950785	0.52720375710606	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-09 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	40.32	38.7	39.51	96.454618666667	0.0058	0.4658	2.83	3.2958	F	F	8.32	364.32	166	456.2378552125	44.00624834582	0.13057657514938	92	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-09 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	259	-26	39.74	38.69	39.215	97.1272925	0.0017	0.4617	2.8	3.2617	F	F	7.74	360.74	166	456.47969129578	44.336636496795	0.11887611561885	92	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L