Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, June 14, 2021

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DAY 257 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/15/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 46.96°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 39.80°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 43.38°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.303 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 15 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 340 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.25 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.09 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.31 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.40 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 98 in SWE DAY: 164 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 455.71 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 44.65 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -28 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 4 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 10.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-06-15 04:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	257	-28	46.95998	39.79994	43.37996	97.988649166667	0.25	1.09	2.31	3.4	T	F	14.95998	339.95998	164	455.71222785506	44.65462561625	0.30304343085708	92	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-06-15 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	257	-27	42.5	42.5	42.5	98.9426	0.0048	0.8448	2.31	3.1548	F	F	10.5	335.5	165	456.59431986284	45.176629152461	0.17605489523462	92	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-14 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	257	-27	52.84	42.91	47.875	98.840356	0.2871	1.1271	2.31	3.4371	T	F	20.84	345.84	165	456.5576180461	45.126317502189	0.51241160364435	92	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2021-06-14 08:00:01	FORECAST	2021	257	-27	53.7	43.33	48.515	98.516018666667	0.3192	1.1592	2.31	3.4692	T	F	21.7	346.7	165	456.44112983764	44.96676286732	0.54422623559921	92	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2021-06-14 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	257	-27	52.73	43.23	47.98	98.671786095238	0.4069	1.2469	2.31	3.5569	T	F	20.73	345.73	165	456.49708686575	45.043382908316	0.50833230673305	92	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2021-06-14 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	53.02	43.29	48.155	98.866469333333	0.4758	0.6858	2.31	2.9958	F	F	21.02	341.02	164	456.02890552795	45.085967803492	0.51908382166545	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-06-13 20:00:04	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	48.43	43.18	45.805	100.03943466667	0.3976	1.0276	2.31	3.3376	T	F	16.43	347.43	164	456.45095758324	45.663095749686	0.35235641761315	92	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-06-13 16:00:01	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	53.61	43.82	48.715	99.835418666667	0.3487	0.9787	2.31	3.2887	T	F	21.61	352.61	164	456.37763960386	45.562652719956	0.54090651856026	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-06-13 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	53.16	43.87	48.515	98.476241333333	0.3146	0.9446	2.31	3.2546	F	F	21.16	352.16	164	455.8882161487	44.894157994483	0.52426972673318	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-06-13 08:00:04	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	53.73	44.08	48.905	98.057221333333	0.32	0.97	2.31	3.28	T	F	21.73	354.73	164	455.73699101243	44.688302997493	0.54533213378857	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-06-13 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	53.73	43.67	48.7	97.666264583333	0.3428	1.1128	2.31	3.4228	T	F	21.73	350.73	164	455.59574874169	44.496334939648	0.54533213378857	92	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2021-06-13 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	54.86	44.05	49.455	98.269365333333	0.265	1.055	2.31	3.365	T	F	22.86	348.86	164	455.8135743119	44.792510657949	0.58665707533942	92	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2021-06-12 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	55.91	44.13	50.02	99.331029333333	0.2187	1.0487	2.31	3.3587	T	F	23.91	361.91	164	456.19621219362	45.31443933516	0.62422374869669	92	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2021-06-12 16:00:05	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	56.4	44.09	50.245	99.287077333333	0.2656	1.1856	2.31	3.4956	T	F	24.4	361.4	164	456.18039177176	45.292817835793	0.64138304717182	92	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2021-06-12 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	56.28	44.37	50.325	97.819332	0.283	1.393	2.31	3.703	T	F	24.28	361.28	164	455.65106463389	44.571482767576	0.63720553937506	92	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2021-06-12 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	55.76	44.73	50.245	97.739136	0.2792	1.5592	2.31	3.8692	T	F	23.76	354.76	164	455.62208588166	44.532109016591	0.61891958855019	92	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2021-06-12 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	55.73	44.45	50.09	97.214389583333	0.2715	1.4715	2.31	3.7815	T	F	23.73	359.73	164	455.43232348976	44.274575324576	0.61785603482389	92	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2021-06-12 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	54.86	45.22	50.04	104.27348533333	0.3522	1.7122	1.96	3.6722	T	F	22.86	356.86	164	457.96401902626	47.753504421129	0.58665707533942	92	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2021-06-11 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	54.53	46.56	50.545	105.137092	0.4547	2.1247	2.34	4.4647	T	F	22.53	366.53	164	458.27064070767	48.181242512982	0.57466657491695	92	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2021-06-11 16:00:05	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	56.09	46.41	51.25	105.13321066667	0.4807	2.0607	2.34	4.4007	T	F	24.09	365.09	164	458.26926415275	48.179319090229	0.63055782142532	92	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2021-06-11 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	58.47	46.09	52.28	104.46584	0.5021	1.9421	2.34	4.2821	T	F	26.47	367.47	164	458.03237236783	47.848736526598	0.71043418648177	92	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2021-06-11 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	59.14	46.23	52.685	104.49951466667	0.3117	1.7017	2.3	4.0017	T	F	27.14	364.14	164	458.04433524538	47.865410728958	0.7313703383932	92	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2021-06-11 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	57.89	46.23	52.06	104.54285775	0.2731	1.7631	2.34	4.1031	T	F	25.89	365.89	164	458.05973130824	47.886873331161	0.69171457368246	92	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2021-06-11 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	60.07	47.03	53.55	97.044305333333	0.3293	1.5393	2.42	3.9593	T	F	28.07	366.07	164	455.37076216295	44.191139283214	0.75911442388755	92	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	DRY	L
2021-06-10 20:00:04	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	58.3	45.8	52.05	98.258489333333	0.2092	1.4292	2.42	3.8492	T	F	26.3	370.3	164	455.80964911449	44.787167545547	0.70500282014932	92	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	DRY	L
2021-06-10 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	58.39	45.86	52.125	98.226017333333	0.2305	1.2305	2.4	3.6305	T	F	26.39	369.39	164	455.79792917818	44.771215291953	0.70788409259494	92	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	DRY	L
2021-06-10 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	57.32	46.36	51.84	97.58516	0.3089	1.1989	2.39	3.5889	T	F	25.32	368.32	164	455.56643024331	44.456522985922	0.67281877403258	92	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2021-06-10 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	53.72	46.59	50.155	97.808090666667	0.2822	1.2422	2.4	3.6422	T	F	21.72	356.72	164	455.64700294395	44.565963375937	0.54496353966666	92	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2021-06-10 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	53.7	46.58	50.14	97.949509166667	0.2817	1.1417	2.43	3.5717	T	F	21.7	366.7	164	455.6980914697	44.635404387644	0.54422623559921	92	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2021-06-10 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	59.25	44.33	51.79	98.295044	0.2989	1.3789	2.52	3.8989	T	F	27.25	364.25	164	455.82284142819	44.805126254389	0.73473358001436	92	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	DRY	L
2021-06-09 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	59.66	45.84	52.75	98.972237333333	0.1828	0.6528	2.44	3.0928	F	F	27.66	383.66	164	456.06701418044	45.137972767371	0.74707838736333	92	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2021-06-09 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	59.67	45.82	52.745	99.24978	0.1731	0.7731	2.51	3.2831	F	F	27.67	381.67	164	456.16696529658	45.274470948953	0.74737566285694	92	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2021-06-09 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	58.66	47.98	53.32	98.349802666667	0.2161	0.7661	2.44	3.2061	F	F	26.66	378.66	164	455.84260114164	44.832029869341	0.71644844020472	92	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2021-06-09 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	59.8	47.84	53.82	98.422837333333	0.223	0.883	2.44	3.323	T	F	27.8	377.8	164	455.86895148899	44.867915657718	0.75122345961262	92	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2021-06-09 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	59.8	47.82	53.81	98.9721285	0.2209	0.8709	2.42	3.2909	F	F	27.8	374.8	164	456.06697497259	45.137919251594	0.75122345961262	92	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2021-06-09 00:00:07	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	63.87	49.56	56.715	100.38817866667	0.8853	1.8453	2.45	4.2953	T	F	31.87	363.87	164	456.57619904731	45.834853044909	0.85474263750702	92	5	1	2	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2021-06-08 19:58:55	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	61.58	48.19	54.885	101.50101066667	0.8571	1.7971	2.57	4.3671	T	F	29.58	374.58	164	456.97509992253	46.383434491638	0.80064082366388	92	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2021-06-08 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	61.59	48.19	54.89	101.48411866667	0.8571	1.7571	2.56	4.3171	T	F	29.59	373.59	164	456.96905331415	46.375101633527	0.800900659741	92	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2021-06-08 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	50.67	42.67	46.67	101.84885466667	0.8541	1.3441	2.56	3.9041	T	F	18.67	363.67	164	457.09955543233	46.555066189425	0.43224173747471	92	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-06-08 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	50.82	42.63	46.725	102.00749733333	0.8541	1.3341	2.78	4.1141	T	F	18.82	356.82	164	457.15627987624	46.633368000392	0.43773222287607	92	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2021-06-08 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	55.27	45.1	50.185	101.50398941667	0.7824	1.2124	2.8	4.0124	T	F	23.27	366.27	164	456.97616615981	46.384903933555	0.60144134564802	92	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2021-06-08 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	70.8	49.16	59.98	95.430128	0.0226	0.2926	2.36	2.6526	F	F	38.8	383.8	164	454.78519119847	43.400209008575	0.95570118990492	92	5	1	2	2	1	1	16	DRY	L
2021-06-07 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	70.84	49.17	60.005	95.874841333333	0.0191	0.2691	2.45	2.7191	F	F	38.84	399.84	164	454.94675839214	43.617948275961	0.95604955088624	92	5	1	3	2	1	1	18	DRY	L
2021-06-07 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	72	50.65	61.325	96.254938666667	0.0344	0.2944	2.43	2.7244	F	F	40	402	164	455.08470560171	43.80415042583	0.96522961543702	92	5	1	3	2	1	1	18	DRY	L
2021-06-07 11:58:54	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	57.9	48.98	53.44	97.51669657243	0.2063	0.2463	2.33	2.5763	F	F	25.9	380.9	164	455.54167669522	44.422919462384	0.69204178065972	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-07 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	49.94	48.98	49.46	98.172216373045	0.2063	0.2463	2.31	2.5563	F	F	17.94	364.94	164	455.77850897249	44.744786401031	0.40572658766358	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-06-07 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	257	-28	47.96	47.14	47.55	98.442830149451	0.3283	0.5883	2.36	2.9483	F	F	15.96	376.96	164	455.87616389148	44.877739771152	0.33626721211065	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L