Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, June 10, 2021

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DAY 253 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/11/2021 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 42.17°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.49°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.33°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.143 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 10 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 324 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.01 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.03 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.70 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.73 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 112 in SWE DAY: 160 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.65 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 51.46 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -32 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 2.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-06-11 04:00:06	OBSERVATION	2021	253	-32	42.17	30.48998	36.32999	112.20614041667	0.0099999999999909	0.029999999999991	3.7	3.73	T	F	10.17	324.17	160	458.65484351153	51.463889773839	0.14321335244748	91	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2021-06-11 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	253	-31	37.71	37.71	37.71	104.96878533333	0	0.02	3.7	3.72	F	F	5.71	319.71	161	456.60936963485	47.929730902389	0.06277462125126	91	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2021-06-10 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	253	-31	45.62	37.43	41.525	105.35548	0.0202	0.0402	3.7	3.7402	T	F	13.62	327.62	161	456.74807779017	48.120912974661	0.24007064618506	91	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2021-06-10 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	253	-31	41.6	33.1	37.35	105.38505466667	0.0234	0.0434	3.7	3.7434	T	F	9.6	323.6	161	456.75868067539	48.13553853245	0.13019107301972	91	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2021-06-10 04:00:06	FORECAST	2021	253	-31	46.2	34.13	40.165	105.69293316667	0.0414	0.0614	3.7	3.7614	T	F	14.2	328.2	161	456.86901164904	48.287825914143	0.25927317371589	91	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-06-10 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	47.59	34.69	41.14	106.08154533333	0.0371	0.0371	3.7	3.7371	T	F	15.59	319.59	160	456.47174356176	48.423227958032	0.30831291969328	91	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-06-09 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	47.57	35.48	41.525	107.06022533333	0.0546	0.1046	3.7	3.8046	T	F	15.57	331.57	160	456.82287598543	48.907560040422	0.30757929802727	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-06-09 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	47.01	33.58	40.295	107.08887066667	0.0422	0.0922	3.7	3.7922	T	F	15.01	331.01	160	456.83314026318	48.921745073891	0.28735817812682	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-06-09 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	46.84	34.66	40.75	106.41138666667	0.0394	0.0894	3.7	3.7894	T	F	14.84	330.84	160	456.59018210818	48.586394416517	0.28134632035262	91	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-06-09 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	46.8	34.51	40.655	106.31435333333	0.0277	0.0877	3.7	3.7877	T	F	14.8	330.8	160	456.55534993874	48.538386789611	0.27994062885306	91	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-06-09 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	46.92	34.76	40.84	106.7585205	0.0341	0.0941	3.7	3.7941	T	F	14.92	330.92	160	456.71472287875	48.758188105103	0.28416786979383	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-06-09 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	45.43	34.16	39.795	108.41537733333	0.0433	0.1233	3.7	3.8233	T	F	13.43	319.43	160	457.30764081046	49.579180435883	0.23395277676078	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-08 19:58:55	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	46.29	34.01	40.15	109.35103466667	0.0308	0.2708	3.7	3.9708	T	F	14.29	334.29	160	457.64137161672	50.043557492561	0.26232235105454	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-06-08 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	47.16	33.31	40.235	109.32353733333	0.0312	0.2812	3.7	3.9812	T	F	15.16	334.16	160	457.63157515945	50.029902591856	0.29271265544292	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-06-08 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	47.13	33.08	40.105	108.72116533333	0.0281	0.2581	3.7	3.9581	T	F	15.13	334.13	160	457.41679671328	49.730887181708	0.29163806391561	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-06-08 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	46.65	33.19	39.92	108.78545333333	0.0374	0.2774	3.7	3.9774	T	F	14.65	328.65	160	457.43973455625	49.762788896381	0.27469978969949	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-06-08 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	46.75	33.29	40.02	109.08762275	0.0278	0.2878	3.7	3.9878	T	F	14.75	328.75	160	457.54749789926	49.912768841041	0.27818831224099	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-06-08 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	46.51	33.03	39.77	104.87794933333	0.04	0.36	3.29	3.65	T	F	14.51	318.51	160	456.03871688007	47.828405442986	0.26985234167801	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-06-07 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	48.64	33.35	40.995	104.62599066667	0.0315	0.3415	3.37	3.7115	T	F	16.64	334.64	160	455.94790014639	47.704000745202	0.34784301373666	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-06-07 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	49	32.56	40.78	104.60406933333	0.0278	0.3478	3.37	3.7178	T	F	17	334	160	455.93999600692	47.693178954148	0.36181463115459	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-06-07 11:58:53	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	44.65	33.31	38.98	104.5389032391	0.0356	0.3856	3.37	3.7556	T	F	12.65	329.65	160	455.91649657549	47.661010520613	0.20976260469593	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-07 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	44.56	32.95	38.755	104.64398437304	0.0384	0.3584	3.47	3.8284	T	F	12.56	325.56	160	455.95438777892	47.712883829558	0.20706912951477	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-07 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	47.88	33.01	40.445	104.83396481612	0.0382	0.3082	3.56	3.8682	T	F	15.88	333.88	160	456.02286715659	47.806685210839	0.31903525495109	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-06-07 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	49.06	32.73	40.895	106.302036	0.0224	0.3224	3.39	3.7124	T	F	17.06	329.06	160	456.55092775707	48.532293158266	0.36416184272842	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-06-06 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	48.05	33.57	40.81	105.41259668468	0.0374	0.3874	3.81	4.1974	T	F	16.05	345.05	160	456.23123435927	48.092519102468	0.32539261309029	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-06-06 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	48.93	33.62	41.275	106.29089516651	0.0354	0.3854	3.81	4.1954	T	F	16.93	344.93	160	456.54692784443	48.526781646105	0.35908277603361	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-06-06 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	48.55	33.67	41.11	107.32087246518	0.0342	0.3342	3.74	4.0742	T	F	16.55	348.55	160	456.91624429834	49.036649981612	0.3443812642139	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-06-06 07:59:06	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	48.57	33.67	41.12	107.24128645142	0.0342	0.3142	3.74	4.0542	T	F	16.57	345.57	160	456.88774176636	48.997229190907	0.3451494291389	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-06-06 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	48.89	32.95	40.92	107.81393259692	0.0277	0.2777	3.74	4.0177	T	F	16.89	339.89	160	457.09269799404	49.280961332074	0.35752493316211	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-06-06 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	47.69	32.53	40.11	109.62126738785	0.0546	0.3146	3.02	3.3346	F	F	15.69	330.69	160	457.73761085994	50.177777033554	0.31199246544377	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-06-05 20:00:07	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	46.21	32	39.105	108.22321465222	0.0787	0.3287	3.21	3.5387	F	F	14.21	341.21	160	457.23900188482	49.483874648348	0.25961106566907	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-06-05 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	46.25	32	39.125	108.19617598553	0.0787	0.2887	3.29	3.5787	F	F	14.25	340.25	160	457.22934120704	49.470466266984	0.26096490018282	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-06-05 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	46.2	33.44	39.82	108.53062753367	0.0589	0.4189	3.2	3.6189	T	F	14.2	335.2	160	457.34879116289	49.636351306676	0.25927317371589	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-06-05 08:00:42	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	48.49	33.64	41.065	108.40987951232	0.0752	0.4552	3.26	3.7152	T	F	16.49	339.49	160	457.30567749962	49.576453398032	0.34208062663003	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-06-05 04:00:09	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	48.51	33.65	41.08	107.57757393759	0.0752	0.4352	3.25	3.6852	T	F	16.51	345.51	160	457.00813881017	49.163826842933	0.34284686016841	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-06-04 23:59:01	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	50.95	36.31	43.63	108.47971866603	0.0209	0.2009	3.2	3.4009	F	F	18.95	358.95	160	457.33061551845	49.611096508802	0.44026991959845	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-06-04 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	45.34	35.8	40.57	109.91279827143	0.2311	0.3811	3.17	3.5511	T	F	13.34	356.34	160	457.84136107177	50.3226251598	0.2310852140655	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-04 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	45.36	35.75	40.555	110.00871226392	0.2311	0.3911	3.18	3.5711	T	F	13.36	355.36	160	457.8754782172	50.370291735903	0.23172075272024	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-04 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	54.28	33.77	44.025	108.59712237615	0.0086	0.4486	3.07	3.5186	T	F	22.28	358.28	160	457.37252782176	49.66934037535	0.57806059037644	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-04 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	55.33	33.8	44.565	107.56699357643	0.009	0.439	3	3.439	F	F	23.33	367.33	160	457.00435241488	49.158584240613	0.6203569839641	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-04 04:00:09	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	55.35	33.87	44.61	107.56419695696	0.009	0.429	2.95	3.379	F	F	23.35	361.35	160	457.00335157129	49.157198518404	0.62115053676742	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-04 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	56.12	38.87	47.495	104.7981572776	0.0211	0.1911	2.9	3.0911	F	F	24.12	364.12	160	456.00996268167	47.789003789267	0.65128535832417	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-03 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	56.62	39.4	48.01	107.24780593897	0.0214	0.1414	2.95	3.0914	F	F	24.62	380.62	160	456.89007683929	49.000458296301	0.67036796868153	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-03 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	54.79	39.49	47.14	107.91735850634	0.0213	0.1113	2.89	3.0013	F	F	22.79	379.79	160	457.12968346884	49.332227934797	0.59874975981109	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-03 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	50.97	36.74	43.855	107.80718573569	0	0.14	2.67	2.81	F	F	18.97	363.97	160	457.09028495476	49.277617248099	0.44109266080765	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-06-03 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	37.62	36.85	37.235	107.6988761642	0.0196	0.1396	2.73	2.8696	F	F	5.62	351.62	160	457.05154198444	49.223937420839	0.061621501692786	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-03 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	253	-32	38.06	37.34	37.7	107.79274486391	0.0048	0.1248	2.7	2.8248	F	F	6.06	355.06	160	457.08511998583	49.27045971972	0.067418855032486	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L