Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, May 8, 2021
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Friday, May 7, 2021 |
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Sunday, May 9, 2021 ]
DAY 220
OF WATER YEAR 2021,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/09/2021 08:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
DRY
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.85°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.69°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.27°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.050
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
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DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
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Degree Days above 32°F (DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 187
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
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Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.27 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.21 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.39 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.60 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 162 in
SWE DAY: 127
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.98 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 74.58 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
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Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -65
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
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Calculated Variables |
D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
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Notes |
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UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
2021-05-09 07:55:15 | OBSERVATION | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 30.84998 | 23.68994 | 27.26996 | 162.49475375 | 0.26999999999998 | 1.21 | 1.39 | 2.6 | F | F | -1.15002 | 186.84998 | 127 | 458.97933462547 | 74.581733956304 | 0.05000148260287 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | DRY | L |
2021-05-09 04:00:07 | OBSERVATION | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 30.84998 | 23.68994 | 27.26996 | 162.49475375 | 0.26999999999998 | 1.21 | 1.39 | 2.6 | F | F | -1.15002 | 186.84998 | 127 | 458.97933462547 | 74.581733956304 | 0.05000148260287 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | DRY | L |
2021-05-09 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -64 | 30.41 | 30.41 | 30.41 | 160 | 0.0005 | 0.9405 | 1.39 | 2.3305 | F | F | -1.59 | 186.41 | 128 | 458.62649077682 | 73.380238524291 | 0.045802671602403 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
2021-05-08 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -64 | 33.51 | 28.25 | 30.88 | 160.15875097125 | 0.068 | 1.008 | 1.39 | 2.398 | F | F | 1.51 | 189.51 | 128 | 458.68263836028 | 73.462038451981 | 0.08223304174618 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | DRY | L |
2021-05-08 08:02:32 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -64 | 30.34 | 24.74 | 27.54 | 160.35819084341 | 0.117 | 1.057 | 1.39 | 2.447 | F | F | -1.66 | 186.34 | 128 | 458.75314485201 | 73.564824352191 | 0.045161477027668 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | DRY | L |
2021-05-08 04:00:08 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -64 | 34.16 | 23.55 | 28.855 | 160.5542274622 | 0.1425 | 1.0825 | 1.39 | 2.4725 | F | F | 2.16 | 190.16 | 128 | 458.82241341768 | 73.665878128617 | 0.092083482068307 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | DRY | L |
2021-05-07 23:54:59 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 33.13 | 23.97 | 28.55 | 160.34043070948 | 0.1232 | 0.6232 | 1.39 | 2.0132 | F | F | 1.13 | 192.13 | 127 | 458.2170798306 | 73.470723938479 | 0.076853014314069 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
2021-05-07 20:00:03 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 32.72 | 21.76 | 27.24 | 159.54085601937 | 0.1816 | 0.6816 | 1.39 | 2.0716 | F | F | 0.72 | 191.72 | 127 | 457.93310676884 | 73.059039853511 | 0.071351981776139 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
2021-05-07 15:55:15 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 31.47 | 22.36 | 26.915 | 159.65524519392 | 0.2057 | 0.7057 | 1.39 | 2.0957 | F | F | -0.53 | 190.47 | 127 | 457.97376803287 | 73.117914227671 | 0.056431248787737 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
2021-05-07 12:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 31.44 | 25.22 | 28.33 | 160.99928844261 | 0.2034 | 0.7034 | 1.39 | 2.0934 | F | F | -0.56 | 190.44 | 127 | 458.45064351907 | 73.810227392629 | 0.056105870597159 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
2021-05-07 08:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 31.77 | 24.48 | 28.125 | 162.09365242951 | 0.165 | 0.875 | 1.39 | 2.265 | F | F | -0.23 | 188.77 | 127 | 458.83773049846 | 74.37468360896 | 0.059767110041417 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
2021-05-07 03:55:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 31.08 | 24.55 | 27.815 | 162.58917853537 | 0.17 | 0.98 | 1.39 | 2.37 | F | F | -0.92 | 189.08 | 127 | 459.01264921743 | 74.630489573605 | 0.052315334104926 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
2021-05-07 00:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 31.97 | 24.24 | 28.105 | 166.04856854651 | 0.1724 | 0.9024 | 1.39 | 2.2924 | F | F | -0.030000000000001 | 166.97 | 127 | 460.22768563356 | 76.420148404925 | 0.062075224244038 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
2021-05-06 20:00:05 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 32.44 | 24.8 | 28.62 | 166.15745926477 | 0.1422 | 1.1322 | 1.39 | 2.5222 | F | F | 0.44 | 184.44 | 127 | 460.2657581107 | 76.476588954245 | 0.067771822363177 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | DRY | L |
2021-05-06 16:02:32 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 32.58 | 24.66 | 28.62 | 165.72868699092 | 0.1434 | 1.0934 | 1.39 | 2.4834 | F | F | 0.58 | 184.58 | 127 | 460.11578154016 | 76.254384338452 | 0.06954422419393 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | DRY | L |
2021-05-06 12:00:05 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 33.45 | 24.81 | 29.13 | 165.56454612914 | 0.1187 | 1.0187 | 1.39 | 2.4087 | F | F | 1.45 | 185.45 | 127 | 460.05832487193 | 76.169347750351 | 0.081365261652486 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | DRY | L |
2021-05-06 08:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 32.63 | 25.3 | 28.965 | 165.34193039843 | 0.1047 | 1.0647 | 1.39 | 2.4547 | F | F | 0.63 | 183.63 | 127 | 459.98036108984 | 76.054040847961 | 0.070185773723058 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | DRY | L |
2021-05-06 04:00:08 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 33.08 | 24.85 | 28.965 | 165.39684628004 | 0.0872 | 1.0372 | 1.39 | 2.4272 | F | F | 1.08 | 183.08 | 127 | 459.99959765374 | 76.082482742015 | 0.076165443659553 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | DRY | L |
2021-05-06 00:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 36.13 | 25.82 | 30.975 | 165.42379023486 | 0.0933 | 0.9133 | 1.39 | 2.3033 | F | F | 4.13 | 180.13 | 127 | 460.00903490962 | 76.096438097028 | 0.12720545089718 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
2021-05-05 20:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 36.4 | 25.37 | 30.885 | 166.56457246257 | 0.0745 | 0.8745 | 1.39 | 2.2645 | F | F | 4.4 | 188.4 | 127 | 460.40800764973 | 76.687662952522 | 0.13266122225068 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
2021-05-05 16:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 36.27 | 25.77 | 31.02 | 166.49768814522 | 0.0663 | 0.8863 | 1.39 | 2.2763 | F | F | 4.27 | 188.27 | 127 | 460.38464767807 | 76.652979495949 | 0.1300146281054 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
2021-05-05 11:55:11 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 32.91 | 25.78 | 29.345 | 165.14348285643 | 0.0502 | 0.8702 | 1.39 | 2.2602 | F | F | 0.91 | 184.91 | 127 | 459.91082424018 | 75.951275318393 | 0.07386258494798 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
2021-05-05 08:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 33.54 | 26.28 | 29.91 | 164.74249768695 | 0.0819 | 0.8019 | 1.39 | 2.1919 | F | F | 1.54 | 185.54 | 127 | 459.77021034746 | 75.743692814695 | 0.082669528359511 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
2021-05-05 04:00:09 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 35.28 | 25.64 | 30.46 | 164.64506028661 | 0.0618 | 0.7618 | 1.39 | 2.1518 | F | F | 3.28 | 189.28 | 127 | 459.73602023743 | 75.693264767919 | 0.11105357020092 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
2021-05-05 00:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 30.18 | 26.96 | 28.57 | 164.47254172807 | 0.1088 | 0.6888 | 1.27 | 1.9588 | F | F | -1.82 | 180.18 | 127 | 459.67546390999 | 75.603991919305 | 0.043722914078598 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
2021-05-04 20:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 32.73 | 26.25 | 29.49 | 166.19578101891 | 0.1168 | 0.7468 | 1.27 | 2.0168 | F | F | 0.73 | 189.73 | 127 | 460.27915439809 | 76.496453551915 | 0.071482470103811 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
2021-05-04 16:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 32.77 | 26.55 | 29.66 | 167.01418982116 | 0.1258 | 0.8658 | 1.27 | 2.1358 | F | F | 0.77 | 187.77 | 127 | 460.56493774091 | 76.920879936829 | 0.072006249027336 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
2021-05-04 12:00:05 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 32.35 | 25.6 | 28.975 | 167.52354020047 | 0.0953 | 0.9753 | 1.27 | 2.2453 | F | F | 0.35 | 188.35 | 127 | 460.74250008728 | 77.185214735438 | 0.066650915472922 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
2021-05-04 08:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 30.11 | 25.68 | 27.895 | 167.94336904064 | 0.0759 | 1.0259 | 1.28 | 2.3059 | F | F | -1.89 | 181.11 | 127 | 460.88868212394 | 77.403198028598 | 0.043105242012255 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | DRY | L |
2021-05-04 04:00:08 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 34.14 | 25.66 | 29.9 | 168.87667839795 | 0.0766 | 1.1066 | 1.3 | 2.4066 | F | F | 2.14 | 190.14 | 127 | 461.21309726219 | 77.888135899268 | 0.091767951663751 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | DRY | L |
2021-05-04 00:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 35.97 | 25.56 | 30.765 | 169.956434793 | 0.1038 | 1.0138 | 1.15 | 2.1638 | F | F | 3.97 | 185.97 | 127 | 461.58745860501 | 78.449758809669 | 0.12404685150724 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | DRY | L |
2021-05-03 20:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 36.03 | 25.47 | 30.75 | 169.81144938955 | 0.1103 | 1.0403 | 1.39 | 2.4303 | F | F | 4.03 | 192.03 | 127 | 461.53725050551 | 78.37430945561 | 0.12522485319746 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | DRY | L |
2021-05-03 16:00:05 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 36.39 | 25.45 | 30.92 | 170.30882277637 | 0.1079 | 1.1279 | 1.37 | 2.4979 | F | F | 4.39 | 191.39 | 127 | 461.70941266842 | 78.63318653633 | 0.13245633398693 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | DRY | L |
2021-05-03 12:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 35.94 | 26.3 | 31.12 | 170.54212964998 | 0.0428 | 1.1328 | 1.37 | 2.5028 | F | F | 3.94 | 189.94 | 127 | 461.79009522821 | 78.754666291486 | 0.12346075867566 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | DRY | L |
2021-05-03 08:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 37.44 | 26.26 | 31.85 | 169.30846593939 | 0.0353 | 0.8653 | 1.38 | 2.2453 | F | F | 5.44 | 189.44 | 127 | 461.36292512831 | 78.112649094786 | 0.15516401436181 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
2021-05-03 04:00:13 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 37.48 | 26.26 | 31.87 | 169.92893828262 | 0.0353 | 0.8553 | 1.32 | 2.1753 | F | F | 5.48 | 182.48 | 127 | 461.57793804976 | 78.435448947479 | 0.1560769543471 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
2021-05-03 00:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 36.11 | 25.38 | 30.745 | 175.98308121494 | 0.2409 | 1.3709 | 1.3 | 2.6709 | F | F | 4.11 | 176.11 | 127 | 463.65819808327 | 81.595998329263 | 0.12680760312665 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | DRY | L |
2021-05-02 20:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 35.44 | 25.3 | 30.37 | 175.38513273144 | 0.2276 | 1.2976 | 1.29 | 2.5876 | F | F | 3.44 | 188.44 | 127 | 463.45415818373 | 81.282969047993 | 0.11397633132577 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | DRY | L |
2021-05-02 16:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 40.2 | 27.44 | 33.82 | 172.77962755521 | 0.2276 | 1.3176 | 1.29 | 2.6076 | F | F | 8.2 | 206.2 | 127 | 462.56144715326 | 79.921194560538 | 0.22634169453078 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | DRY | L |
2021-05-02 12:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 38.61 | 27.54 | 33.075 | 173.15724793876 | 0.1815 | 1.3115 | 1.29 | 2.6015 | F | F | 6.61 | 196.61 | 127 | 462.69119567324 | 80.118334088273 | 0.18332139799558 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | DRY | L |
2021-05-02 08:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 38.97 | 27.43 | 33.2 | 173.70244006067 | 0.1815 | 1.3715 | 1.3 | 2.6715 | F | F | 6.97 | 192.97 | 127 | 462.87830162063 | 80.403090442639 | 0.19258785464165 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | DRY | L |
2021-05-02 04:02:32 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 37.94 | 27.39 | 32.665 | 173.43223856436 | 0.2285 | 1.3885 | 1.32 | 2.7085 | F | F | 5.94 | 202.94 | 127 | 462.78560282919 | 80.261943074025 | 0.16682899008494 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | DRY | L |
2021-05-02 00:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 37.2 | 28.71 | 32.955 | 177.58753269944 | 0.9851 | 2.1551 | 1.33 | 3.4851 | T | F | 5.2 | 208.2 | 127 | 464.20416136797 | 82.436871686152 | 0.14976033899564 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | DRY | L |
2021-05-01 20:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 38.67 | 29.54 | 34.105 | 176.44673437899 | 0.7711 | 1.9211 | 1.35 | 3.2711 | T | F | 6.67 | 219.67 | 127 | 463.81619878392 | 81.838853627497 | 0.18484624179024 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | DRY | L |
2021-05-01 16:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 38.73 | 29.57 | 34.15 | 176.53847235822 | 0.6762 | 1.8262 | 1.41 | 3.2362 | T | F | 6.73 | 221.73 | 127 | 463.84743860962 | 81.886918219413 | 0.18637892586218 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | DRY | L |
2021-05-01 12:02:24 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 32.12 | 30.9 | 31.51 | 170.16935857541 | 0.0575 | 0.5675 | 1.47 | 2.0375 | F | F | 0.12 | 216.12 | 127 | 461.6611600954 | 78.560583492615 | 0.063851345582443 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | DRY | L |
2021-05-01 08:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 30.25 | 28.23 | 29.24 | 170.17749878377 | 0.0272 | 0.4572 | 1.49 | 1.9472 | F | F | -1.75 | 205.25 | 127 | 461.66397695813 | 78.564820877303 | 0.044347684746724 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | DRY | L |
2021-05-01 04:00:08 | FORECAST | 2021 | 220 | -65 | 30.24 | 28.22 | 29.23 | 169.81175626051 | 0.0173 | 0.4473 | 1.47 | 1.9173 | F | F | -1.76 | 211.24 | 127 | 461.53735679372 | 78.374469136976 | 0.044257995180956 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | DRY | L |