Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, May 7, 2021

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DAY 219 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/08/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.89°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.76°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.33°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.045 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 94 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -2 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 207 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.79 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.94 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.39 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.33 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 160 in SWE DAY: 126 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 457.67 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 73.36 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -66 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-05-08 04:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	219	-66	29.89004	24.76004	27.32504	160.29331458333	0.78999999999996	0.93999999999996	1.39	2.33	F	F	-2.10996	206.89004	126	457.66849374882	73.36119984336	0.045451561622071	94	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-07 12:00:04	FORECAST	2021	219	-65	33.25	21.11	27.18	160.36499105642	0.3505	0.5005	1.39	1.8905	F	F	1.25	210.25	127	458.2257934377	73.483375266455	0.085338547603778	94	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-07 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	219	-65	30.69	21.1	25.895	161.57300510031	0.5586	0.7086	1.39	2.0986	F	F	-1.31	207.69	127	458.65370675071	74.106057700107	0.053234602525972	94	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-07 03:55:07	FORECAST	2021	219	-65	31.88	22.91	27.395	162.04046603465	0.6559	0.8059	1.39	2.1959	F	F	-0.12	208.88	127	458.81894282867	74.347235321481	0.066716758664454	94	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-07 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	29.54	20.03	24.785	165.49364182601	0.7165	0.7265	1.39	2.1165	F	F	-2.46	185.54	126	459.5086084072	76.04575305571	0.042346116318808	94	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2021-05-06 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	27.6	21.09	24.345	165.71166831707	0.7734	0.9934	1.39	2.3834	F	F	-4.4	202.6	126	459.5852265835	76.158634631031	0.028099305187655	94	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-06 16:02:29	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	27.69	22.45	25.07	165.31384147893	0.7252	0.9452	1.39	2.3352	F	F	-4.31	202.69	126	459.44539160956	75.952682636769	0.02865840667694	94	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-06 12:00:04	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	28.39	22.69	25.54	165.25221577671	0.6832	0.9032	1.39	2.2932	F	F	-3.61	203.39	126	459.42371771264	75.920787332389	0.033329229680203	94	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-06 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	28.26	23.05	25.655	165.01599545221	0.7061	0.9561	1.39	2.3461	F	F	-3.74	202.26	126	459.34060706461	75.798547526391	0.032417392645763	94	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-06 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	28.25	23.41	25.83	165.13252298611	0.7028	0.9528	1.39	2.3428	F	F	-3.75	201.25	126	459.38161179629	75.858844569347	0.032348109790781	94	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-06 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	28.67	23.46	26.065	165.16568559926	0.6468	0.8168	1.39	2.2068	F	F	-3.33	194.67	126	459.39327912947	75.876005907114	0.035364794341747	94	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2021-05-05 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	29.1	22.73	25.915	166.39631292406	0.6662	0.7962	1.39	2.1862	F	F	-2.9	203.1	126	459.82554658278	76.513275539668	0.038687764028231	94	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-05 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	29.23	23.38	26.305	166.33203365935	0.6762	0.8162	1.39	2.2062	F	F	-2.77	203.23	126	459.80300141854	76.479968308617	0.039740893514588	94	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-05 11:55:11	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	29.44	23.65	26.545	164.92195091084	0.6545	0.8245	1.39	2.2145	F	F	-2.56	203.44	126	459.30750499459	75.749889791698	0.041491080917482	94	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-05 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	29.96	23.55	26.755	164.38450977122	0.5496	0.7196	1.39	2.1096	F	F	-2.04	202.96	126	459.11818311881	75.471917459038	0.046093593656557	94	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-05 04:00:09	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	30.21	24.1	27.155	164.42969603478	0.5405	0.7005	1.39	2.0905	F	F	-1.79	205.21	126	459.13411062543	75.49528224934	0.048447409575607	94	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-05 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	30.01	24.18	27.095	163.96512866257	0.3709	0.5909	1.26	1.8509	F	F	-1.99	201.01	126	458.97027007279	75.255119384778	0.046556883835056	94	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-04 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	30.23	23.73	26.98	165.64316977228	0.4634	0.6334	1.27	1.9034	F	F	-1.77	208.23	126	459.56115961371	76.123167182637	0.048639780333794	94	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-04 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	29.78	23.54	26.66	166.40793395776	0.5693	0.7393	1.27	2.0093	F	F	-2.22	205.78	126	459.82962212504	76.519297390405	0.044456235814399	94	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-04 12:00:04	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	32.42	22.24	27.33	167.03489494466	0.7255	0.8755	1.27	2.1455	F	F	0.42	207.42	126	460.04932158556	76.844290100404	0.073642993613432	94	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-04 08:00:07	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	31.18	23.49	27.335	167.52449972595	0.7975	0.9475	1.28	2.2275	F	F	-0.82	202.18	126	460.22064560672	77.098233418819	0.058499376545575	94	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-04 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	30.76	23.07	26.915	168.54463493578	0.8611	1.0311	1.3	2.3311	F	F	-1.24	206.76	126	460.57693076939	77.62777065637	0.053962939591152	94	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-04 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	29.58	24.16	26.87	169.489877601	0.692	0.912	1.15	2.062	F	F	-2.42	200.58	126	460.90623649829	78.118941609633	0.042692084702743	94	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-03 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	29.71	24.61	27.16	169.28777431857	0.718	0.928	1.39	2.318	F	F	-2.29	206.71	126	460.83589374612	78.013882778389	0.043832239073233	94	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-03 16:00:04	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	29.74	24.61	27.175	169.8136840128	0.7273	1.0173	1.37	2.3873	F	F	-2.26	205.74	126	461.01886320186	78.287311559701	0.044098798434403	94	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-03 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	28.98	24.1	26.54	170.38950605621	0.7252	1.0852	1.37	2.4552	F	F	-3.02	204.98	126	461.21891757441	78.586863549283	0.037735871881426	94	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-03 08:00:07	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	30.38	23.95	27.165	169.24736266393	0.5647	0.8347	1.38	2.2147	F	F	-1.62	203.38	126	460.82182399623	77.992878369344	0.050102029583713	94	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-03 04:00:13	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	30.35	23.94	27.145	169.86536227578	0.5647	0.8247	1.32	2.1447	F	F	-1.65	196.35	126	461.03682942232	78.314188052298	0.049806818534833	94	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2021-05-03 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	29.08	23.12	26.1	174.48285675391	0.8115	1.1415	1.29	2.4315	F	F	-2.92	191.08	126	462.63264385917	80.721465328162	0.038527774487437	94	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-02 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	28.7	22.73	25.715	174.00539154104	0.752	1.072	1.29	2.362	F	F	-3.3	203.7	126	462.46849728319	80.472011945159	0.035588794898038	94	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-02 16:00:07	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	34.91	27.19	31.05	171.66618856189	0.752	1.092	1.29	2.382	F	F	2.91	216.91	126	461.66142551096	79.251657323515	0.11279271395734	94	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-02 12:00:07	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	33.56	27.84	30.7	172.3137554117	0.7428	1.1328	1.29	2.4228	F	F	1.56	208.56	126	461.8853292245	79.589195648245	0.090045376323564	94	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-02 08:00:07	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	34.26	27.88	31.07	172.85211328178	0.7428	1.1928	1.3	2.4928	F	F	2.26	205.26	126	462.07119252199	79.869982114057	0.10137582074759	94	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-02 04:02:32	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	34.45	28.63	31.54	172.21206594687	0.7017	1.1717	1.31	2.4817	F	F	2.45	216.45	126	461.85019328898	79.536175944258	0.10462264338541	94	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-02 00:00:07	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	36.04	28.02	32.03	172.25253012932	0.8088	1.1688	1.33	2.4988	F	F	4.04	222.04	126	461.86417563669	79.55727282951	0.134761915542	94	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-01 20:00:07	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	32.55	29.21	30.88	172.667310197	0.7884	1.1484	1.35	2.4984	F	F	0.55	231.55	126	462.00741953578	79.773578422301	0.075389509318435	94	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-01 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	32.63	29.27	30.95	172.85503832341	0.7884	1.1484	1.41	2.5584	F	F	0.63	233.63	126	462.07220167273	79.871508128321	0.076479819795274	94	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-01 12:02:24	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	41.22	29.46	35.34	169.75128326812	0.2599	0.5099	1.47	1.9799	F	F	9.22	235.22	126	460.99716611086	78.254860530288	0.27058027661139	94	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-01 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	40.34	28.44	34.39	169.9446435638	0.2454	0.4254	1.49	1.9154	F	F	8.34	226.34	126	461.06438739614	78.355422976	0.24358983942364	94	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-01 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	40.41	28.39	34.4	169.66022480308	0.2454	0.4254	1.47	1.8954	F	F	8.41	232.41	126	460.96549839756	78.207510084594	0.24568232518918	94	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-01 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	48.82	32.03	40.425	167.2291944302	0.5843	0.6743	1.35	2.0243	F	F	16.82	257.82	126	460.11733696306	76.9450516037	0.54461726303566	94	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-04-30 20:00:08	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	48.9	36.39	42.645	166.98299120701	0.3647	0.4647	1.54	2.0047	F	F	16.9	262.9	126	460.03114677531	76.817376936931	0.54763358718106	94	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-30 16:00:07	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	50.43	41.93	46.18	167.30099467949	0.1639	0.2739	1.56	1.8339	F	F	18.43	263.43	126	460.14246245896	76.982291663655	0.60459535785829	94	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-30 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	34.83	31.96	33.395	169.25869741424	0.1593	0.3593	1.6	1.9593	F	F	2.83	227.83	126	460.82577045654	77.998769642388	0.11134013648542	94	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-04-30 07:55:34	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	33.48	31.91	32.695	169.36303656556	0.1414	0.3414	1.65	1.9914	F	F	1.48	223.48	126	460.86209325346	78.053003551367	0.088812697409465	94	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-04-30 04:00:10	FORECAST	2021	219	-66	33.47	31.52	32.495	169.06996005176	0.1688	0.3688	1.66	2.0288	F	F	1.47	227.47	126	460.76004229048	77.900681943498	0.088659497360289	94	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L