MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, May 30, 2021

[ Saturday, May 29, 2021 | Index | Today | Monday, May 31, 2021 ]

DAY 242 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/31/2021 08:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 58.02°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 45.43°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 51.73°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.726
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 86 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 26
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 279

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.27 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.18 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.45 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 127 in
SWE DAY: 149
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.16 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 58.32 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -43

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-05-31 07:59:57OBSERVATION2021242-4358.0200845.4299851.72503127.2799291666700.273.183.45FF26.02008279.02008149458.16487421311 58.3151927364990.7262194483530486 4122127DRYL
2021-05-31 04:00:07OBSERVATION2021242-4358.0200845.4299851.72503127.2799291666700.273.183.45FF26.02008279.02008149458.16487421311 58.3151927364990.7262194483530486 4122127DRYL
2021-05-31 00:00:03FORECAST2021242-4248.948.948.9127.9076133333300.273.183.45FF16.9269.9150458.9166204850558.6989296452420.42911484755022862122125DRYL
2021-05-30 12:00:02FORECAST2021242-4262.4548.8755.66128.280022666670.00390.27393.183.4539FF30.45283.45150459.0480254435758.886691108990.83656533112586864122127DRYL
2021-05-30 08:00:03FORECAST2021242-4259.6847.5653.62127.914630666670.00590.27593.183.4559FF27.68280.68150458.9190977064458.7024668889990.7713850089566864122127DRYL
2021-05-30 04:00:07FORECAST2021242-4260.4145.7453.075127.849201666670.00640.27643.183.4564FF28.41281.41150458.8959985981858.6694870688050.78984132770618864122127DRYL
2021-05-30 00:00:06FORECAST2021242-4361.9646.4254.19127.182917333330.00940.27943.183.4594FF29.96270.96149458.1304378302858.2663656024530.82600694371831864122127DRYL
2021-05-29 20:00:02FORECAST2021242-4361.944.9753.435129.302801333330.00170.27173.183.4517FF29.9283.9149458.8810052563659.3345994583030.82468498419865864122127DRYL
2021-05-29 16:00:02FORECAST2021242-4362.6246.0654.34129.2492280.00390.27393.183.4539FF30.62284.62149458.8620867834159.3075704752250.8401293577557864122127DRYL
2021-05-29 11:59:57FORECAST2021242-4362.9246.3754.645127.696913333330.00060.27063.183.4506FF30.92284.92149458.3127948957958.5251292493660.84629417543946864122127DRYL
2021-05-29 08:00:06FORECAST2021242-4362.3446.6754.505127.4937720.00090.30093.183.4809FF30.34280.34149458.240752246558.4228419880240.83423197805672864122127DRYL
2021-05-29 04:00:08FORECAST2021242-4362.8946.6154.75127.657672666670.00110.27113.183.4511FF30.89282.89149458.2988813651558.5053685808110.84568485346752864122127DRYL
2021-05-29 00:00:05FORECAST2021242-4362.7946.5654.675126.2677253333300.013.183.19FF30.79274.79149457.805153298357.8060153528540.84364229026732864121123.5DRYL
2021-05-28 20:00:05FORECAST2021242-4362.6946.4754.58126.3091080.00020.03023.183.2102FF30.69285.69149457.8198781701957.8268204363460.84158204763416864121123.5DRYL
2021-05-28 16:00:06FORECAST2021242-4362.0946.654.345126.306320.00170.03173.183.2117FF30.09285.09149457.818886186557.8254187407150.82884943466146864121123.5DRYL
2021-05-28 12:00:06FORECAST2021242-4362.2945.954.095125.984442666670.00240.03243.183.2124FF30.29285.29149457.7043134615357.663622837580.83316429640656864121123.5DRYL
2021-05-28 07:59:27FORECAST2021242-4363.1645.5154.335125.660891083330.00120.06123.183.2412FF31.16282.16149457.5890503428557.5010478160580.85111150342493865121124DRYL
2021-05-28 04:00:29FORECAST2021242-4363.3545.6154.48125.6940124070.00060.12063.183.3006FF31.35286.35149457.6008539486557.5176874136750.8548531046737865122128DRYL
2021-05-27 23:59:21FORECAST2021242-4362.8445.3154.075127.589041951510.00190.33193.023.3519FF30.84279.84149458.2745436954158.4708099808610.84466578161868864122127DRYL
2021-05-27 20:00:05FORECAST2021242-4365.2745.1755.22126.936044211660.0020.3523.023.372FF33.27282.27149458.042766761558.142136892470.88912484919888865122128DRYL
2021-05-27 15:59:26FORECAST2021242-4365.3445.0855.21127.24223249010.0020.3523.023.372FF33.34282.34149458.1514939959458.2962189147160.89025457337471865122128DRYL
2021-05-27 12:00:05FORECAST2021242-4364.6345.1954.91127.192125116780.00050.37053.023.3905FF32.63281.63149458.1337066904358.2709997415850.87840964367951865122128DRYL
2021-05-27 07:59:36FORECAST2021242-4361.1344.7152.92127.54163510510.00030.36033.163.5203FF29.13277.13149458.2577299086258.4469401720970.80715945474932864122127DRYL
2021-05-27 04:00:08FORECAST2021242-4365.6242.2953.955126.726830494790.00030.34033.33.6403TF33.62285.62149457.9684264798758.036887154480.89469107071854865122128DRYL
2021-05-27 00:00:06FORECAST2021242-4364.2242.3153.265129.448013962360.00150.36153.333.6915TF32.22278.22149458.9322715780759.4078710990160.87117523939118865122128DRYL
2021-05-26 20:00:06FORECAST2021242-4364.4142.0153.21130.188944457930.00160.31163.283.5916TF32.41290.41149459.193557822259.7819245947530.87456396140375865122128DRYL
2021-05-26 16:00:05FORECAST2021242-4364.4443.1953.815129.993698805620.0010.3113.273.581TF32.44291.44149459.1247529149659.683324844630.87509329953914865122128DRYL
2021-05-26 12:00:04FORECAST2021242-4365.614454.805128.890113697390.00120.30123.283.5812FF33.61292.61149458.7352054465559.1264327870040.89453488523739865122128DRYL
2021-05-26 08:00:06FORECAST2021242-4361.5943.4452.515129.366056190890.0020.3123.273.582TF29.59288.59149458.9033392739859.3665151747030.81775404154383864122127DRYL
2021-05-26 04:00:08FORECAST2021242-4365.7243.3154.515129.792471880950.0020.3423.273.612TF33.72288.72149459.0538044819359.5817280100620.89624375854258865122128DRYL
2021-05-26 00:00:05FORECAST2021242-4364.1541.0752.61130.422919116430.00050.34053.053.3905FF32.15283.15149459.2759659651859.9001121611960.86991094699485865122128DRYL
2021-05-25 19:59:59FORECAST2021242-4364.5838.6151.595134.553549541640.00050.44054.084.5205TF32.58290.58149460.7227786753761.9918852254560.87754296367521865122128WETL
2021-05-25 16:00:05FORECAST2021242-4365.3238.5951.955131.586169509040.00050.47053.083.5505TF33.32291.32149459.6849478008560.4881814620760.88993263883349865122128DRYL
2021-05-25 12:00:05FORECAST2021242-4363.839.5551.675131.46793890220.00020.50023.133.6302TF31.8286.8149459.6434347941460.4283750023120.863461222531418651231212DRYL
2021-05-25 08:00:05FORECAST2021242-4363.738.9851.34131.542025738880.00020.50023.313.8102TF31.7279.7149459.6694495449160.4658505634110.861579060033588651231212DRYL
2021-05-25 04:00:08FORECAST2021242-4363.7438.9451.34131.878265033850.00020.52023.273.7902TF31.74278.74149459.7874546455260.6359718029820.862334030121068651231212DRYL
2021-05-24 23:59:35FORECAST2021242-4364.7839.9452.36131.250759599880.00190.44193.293.7319TF32.78289.78149459.5671465349260.3185370698580.88098386459243865122128DRYL
2021-05-24 20:00:06FORECAST2021242-4364.8740.8652.865132.346670637210.00090.38093.433.8109TF32.87292.87149459.9516763676960.8730730212660.88250985621719865122128DRYL
2021-05-24 16:00:05FORECAST2021242-4364.8940.8552.87131.622140289660.00090.38093.53.8809TF32.89294.89149459.6975753504160.5063787535860.88284708164759865122128DRYL
2021-05-24 12:00:06FORECAST2021242-4364.5441.252.87131.648829036860.00130.76133.143.9013TF32.54289.54149459.7069436947960.5198808375310.876846514886758651231212DRYL
2021-05-24 08:00:06FORECAST2021242-4365.2741.5553.41131.628472338010.0020.7523.133.882TF33.27288.27149459.699798097860.5095821577050.889124849198888651231212DRYL
2021-05-24 04:00:08FORECAST2021242-4365.2841.5553.415132.388250845840.0020.6423.213.852TF33.28287.28149459.9662448353560.8941266018790.889286744876298651231212DRYL
2021-05-24 00:00:06FORECAST2021242-4364.8639.3952.125132.261342495040.00050.66053.053.7105TF32.86277.86149459.9217751071160.8298714183690.882340986815448651231212DRYL
2021-05-23 20:00:06FORECAST2021242-4365.2739.5852.425133.210107228860.00050.69053.133.8205TF33.27289.27149460.2538833183261.3104691493340.889124849198888651231212DRYL
2021-05-23 16:00:06FORECAST2021242-4364.7139.7452.225134.751180585930.00050.71053.193.9005TF32.71294.71149460.791622007762.0922150696450.879787375488558651231212DRYL
2021-05-23 12:00:06FORECAST2021242-4355.3240.1947.755133.9474447897700.273.123.39FF23.32283.32149460.5114308666361.6843294610670.64448395187304863122126DRYL
2021-05-23 08:00:06FORECAST2021242-4342.9240.1941.555134.2272266520600.293.143.43FF10.92266.92149460.6090308105461.8262727765910.24505931510734861122124DRYL
2021-05-23 04:00:08FORECAST2021242-4341.3440.240.77134.0608226951900.293.043.33FF9.34273.34149460.5509903138261.7418446545530.20460236751962861122124DRYL