Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, May 3, 2021

[ Sunday, May 2, 2021 | Index | Today | Tuesday, May 4, 2021 ]

DAY 215 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/04/2021 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.12°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.23°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.18°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.247 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 6 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 238 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.15 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.16 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.10 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.26 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 166 in SWE DAY: 122 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 457.74 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 76.20 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -70 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 4.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-05-04 04:00:08	OBSERVATION	2021	215	-70	38.12	28.23008	33.17504	166.47276416667	0.14999999999998	0.15999999999998	1.1	1.26	F	F	6.12	238.12	122	457.73800356892	76.20091071825	0.24743267685781	90	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-04 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	215	-69	34.23	34.23	34.23	167.98780933333	0.0044	0.0144	1.1	1.1144	F	F	2.23	234.23	123	458.80590364356	77.073798662283	0.13422058414314	90	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2021-05-03 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	215	-69	39.87	31	35.435	168.28103852172	0.219	0.229	1.1	1.329	F	F	7.87	239.87	123	458.90946265371	77.225760962811	0.31139582242801	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-03 08:00:04	FORECAST	2021	215	-69	36.45	30.81	33.63	168.3067476589	0.2331	0.2431	1.1	1.3431	F	F	4.45	236.45	123	458.91853860742	77.239086673391	0.19362861581918	90	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-03 04:00:13	FORECAST	2021	215	-69	34.01	28.3	31.155	168.76771063566	0.1827	0.1927	1.1	1.2927	F	F	2.01	234.01	123	459.08116926384	77.4780779326	0.12909991635874	90	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-03 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	37.3	30.47	33.885	171.21403459467	0.1711	0.1711	1.1	1.2711	F	F	5.3	226.3	122	459.41582708124	78.658437311225	0.22007030922426	90	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-02 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	36.98	29.3	33.14	171.08489176333	0.1427	0.1627	1.1	1.2627	F	F	4.98	237.98	122	459.37039366506	78.591334079466	0.20988142315804	90	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-02 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	40.59	31.38	35.985	170.59644765209	0.153	0.173	1.1	1.273	F	F	8.59	241.59	122	459.19842052311	78.337619308695	0.33963969406879	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-02 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	40.39	31.7	36.045	170.24119660625	0.1496	0.1696	1.1	1.2696	F	F	8.39	241.39	122	459.07320838162	78.15317232476	0.33169468466644	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-02 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	40.51	31.94	36.225	170.40791215232	0.1544	0.1844	1.1	1.2844	F	F	8.51	236.51	122	459.13198318074	78.239722656185	0.33645289223755	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-02 04:02:32	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	40.96	32.17	36.565	169.94199441648	0.1732	0.1932	1.1	1.2932	F	F	8.96	242.96	122	458.96766358975	77.997880123112	0.35452502134729	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-02 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	41.41	32.58	36.995	172.10884398329	0.1754	0.1954	1.1	1.2954	F	F	9.41	235.41	122	459.73021869157	79.123636483194	0.37293058288297	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-01 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	42.05	32.56	37.305	172.07605061404	0.1588	0.2188	1.1	1.3188	F	F	10.05	246.05	122	459.71870933849	79.106579896352	0.39960505292876	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-01 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	41.71	31.4	36.555	172.14454164336	0.2051	0.2651	1.1	1.3651	F	F	9.71	245.71	122	459.74274626184	79.142204329101	0.38536712832359	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-01 12:02:24	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	41.83	31.75	36.79	172.07221809953	0.2579	0.3279	1.1	1.4279	F	F	9.83	246.83	122	459.71736419417	79.104586555758	0.39037574672012	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-01 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	41.48	31.18	36.33	172.20898142964	0.2385	0.3185	1.1	1.4185	F	F	9.48	246.48	122	459.76535758403	79.175723926177	0.37582116220328	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-01 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	41.07	31.67	36.37	171.96948204942	0.2428	0.3028	1.1	1.4028	F	F	9.07	247.07	122	459.68130078999	79.051155204659	0.35899481662742	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-01 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	41.74	30.23	35.985	172.81482185992	0.2165	0.2765	1	1.2765	F	F	9.74	240.74	122	459.97776049567	79.490974739584	0.38661752836306	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-30 20:00:07	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	41.35	31.32	36.335	173.77763265667	0.2624	0.3224	1.17	1.4924	F	F	9.35	247.35	122	460.31464267257	79.992388880843	0.37045861556506	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-30 16:00:07	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	40.62	31.71	36.165	173.99766134616	0.2433	0.3333	1.17	1.5033	F	F	8.62	246.62	122	460.39151391364	80.107046724592	0.34083771997427	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-30 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	36.25	32.29	34.27	173.51930808091	0.3014	0.3814	1.17	1.5514	F	F	4.25	241.25	122	460.22433718427	79.857808550209	0.18770009493079	90	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-04-30 07:55:33	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	39.36	30.77	35.065	173.45117389889	0.2514	0.3314	1.29	1.6214	F	F	7.36	243.36	122	460.20050885903	79.822318490468	0.29202837251905	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-30 04:00:10	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	43.54	32.03	37.785	173.18597738509	0.1999	0.2799	1.35	1.6299	F	F	11.54	244.54	122	460.10772335292	79.684205771304	0.46333887564506	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-30 00:00:07	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	42.99	30.53	36.76	173.67031048071	0.2659	0.3359	1.37	1.7059	F	F	10.99	228.99	122	460.27713202191	79.936472425415	0.43961275110461	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-29 20:00:07	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	40.1	30.79	35.445	174.43416440621	0.3049	0.4249	1.47	1.8949	F	F	8.1	248.1	122	460.54388753076	80.334588193819	0.32030834263199	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-29 15:55:54	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	43.13	29.9	36.515	174.70423157293	0.1875	0.3275	1.45	1.7775	F	F	11.13	244.13	122	460.63807747666	80.475421358794	0.44563502434445	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-29 11:55:54	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	44.67	30.26	37.465	173.21249236243	0.052	0.222	1.45	1.672	F	F	12.67	248.67	122	460.11700308052	79.698012881908	0.51240280752539	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-29 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	42.94	31.67	37.305	172.95504373228	0.0727	0.2027	1.45	1.6527	F	F	10.94	244.94	122	460.02687462407	79.563968218629	0.43746524683287	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-29 04:00:10	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	43.02	31.71	37.365	173.02814495686	0.0727	0.2127	1.43	1.6427	F	F	11.02	250.02	122	460.05247213108	79.602025835661	0.44090211122436	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-29 00:00:07	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	48.11	30	39.055	173.62463818424	0.0226	0.2726	1.44	1.7126	F	F	16.11	237.11	122	460.26116579266	79.912678381009	0.65759320859702	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-28 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	47.38	29.78	38.58	174.30650653786	0.0466	0.2366	1.39	1.6266	F	F	15.38	251.38	122	460.49934245441	80.268031646208	0.62792569601624	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-28 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	47.38	30.58	38.98	174.19624399603	0.0466	0.3666	1.37	1.7366	F	F	15.38	249.38	122	460.46085569503	80.210551569271	0.62792569601624	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-28 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	39.97	31.36	35.665	173.38399079869	0.2438	0.5538	1.38	1.9338	F	F	7.97	242.97	122	460.17700911411	79.787326314007	0.31525767462808	90	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-04-28 07:55:50	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	39.99	31.36	35.675	173.3806973408	0.2438	0.4738	1.38	1.8538	F	F	7.99	238.99	122	460.17585700372	79.785610986705	0.31603248952442	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-28 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	40.48	31.6	36.04	174.20504433548	0.1282	0.3482	1.4	1.7482	F	F	8.48	239.48	122	460.46392781894	80.215138960586	0.33526084677375	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-28 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	45.46	31.55	38.505	173.56152833264	0.1374	0.4474	1.38	1.8274	F	F	13.46	241.46	122	460.23910065354	79.87980170787	0.54663698428919	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-27 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	44.84	30.95	37.895	174.62219062334	0.2727	0.5727	1.43	2.0027	F	F	12.84	250.84	122	460.60947130613	80.432634901332	0.5197860734666	90	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-04-27 15:59:37	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	44.87	30.96	37.915	174.43328139699	0.2727	0.5527	1.45	2.0027	F	F	12.87	249.87	122	460.54357946216	80.334127791899	0.52108837069609	90	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-04-27 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	44.12	30.79	37.455	173.07067341376	0.2188	0.3688	1.47	1.8388	F	F	12.12	259.12	122	460.06736193118	79.624168145123	0.48849956278338	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-27 08:00:07	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	45.99	30.33	38.16	173.17016668183	0.1028	0.2228	1.3	1.5228	F	F	13.99	254.99	122	460.10218961609	79.675972866492	0.56942702230646	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-27 04:00:10	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	45.68	31.3	38.49	172.44703585867	0.1028	0.2028	1.24	1.4428	F	F	13.68	263.68	122	459.84885658841	79.299572261668	0.55612007285835	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-27 00:00:08	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	53.18	32.94	43.06	172.16318033027	0.0098	0.1698	0.98	1.1498	F	F	21.18	259.18	122	459.7492867843	79.151899367357	0.8310791877538	90	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-04-26 19:59:36	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	55.7	32.77	44.235	172.4222754245	0.0011	0.0911	1.09	1.1811	F	F	23.7	271.7	122	459.84017407152	79.286689145007	0.89126699060467	90	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-04-26 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	54.76	32.82	43.79	172.70981543287	0.0006	0.0906	1.09	1.1806	F	F	22.76	275.76	122	459.94096947669	79.436319948335	0.87091774785791	90	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-04-26 12:02:16	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	40.57	32.86	36.715	173.39902812229	0.0101	0.2401	1.05	1.2901	F	F	8.57	249.57	122	460.18226931601	79.795158258505	0.33884190780288	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-26 07:59:40	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	32.05	30.59	31.32	174.21958615729	0.0296	0.3996	1.02	1.4196	F	F	0.049999999999997	239.05	122	460.46900409521	80.222719331724	0.089386994977192	90	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-04-26 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	215	-70	32.07	31.19	31.63	174.05541373258	0.0093	0.3693	1.03	1.3993	F	F	0.07	245.07	122	460.41168370003	80.137146093723	0.089740286467567	90	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L