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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, May 29, 2021

[ Friday, May 28, 2021 | Index | Today | Sunday, May 30, 2021 ]

DAY 241 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/30/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 58.50°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.89°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 45.69°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.738
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 84 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 26
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 275

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.03 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.42 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.45 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 130 in
SWE DAY: 148
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.67 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 59.71 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -44

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 14.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-05-30 04:00:07OBSERVATION2021241-4458.4999632.8899245.69494130.1900283333301.032.423.45TF26.49996275.49996148458.66585392989 59.7137205186640.7379505289716384 41241214DRYL
2021-05-30 00:00:03FORECAST2021241-4346.4446.4446.44129.921061333330.00121.03122.423.4512TF14.44263.44149459.0991466336359.6466483878690.355135466995528421241210DRYL
2021-05-29 11:59:54FORECAST2021241-4359.0946.2352.66130.4692240.00291.03292.423.4529TF27.09276.09149459.2922691895959.9235059503650.753766381075318441241214DRYL
2021-05-29 08:00:03FORECAST2021241-4355.2442.7348.985130.291229333330.02531.05532.423.4753TF23.24272.24149459.2295895721559.8335877715970.642223545280068431241212DRYL
2021-05-29 04:00:07FORECAST2021241-4357.1536.0446.595130.471967333330.00461.03462.423.4546TF25.15274.15149459.2932350141459.9248919551850.699908736659798441241214DRYL
2021-05-29 00:00:05FORECAST2021241-4459.2832.8846.08129.0743120.00530.76532.423.1853FF27.28266.28148458.2707159399559.1509773696970.758748288585228441231210.5DRYL
2021-05-28 20:00:02FORECAST2021241-4459.334.4746.885129.1062920.00290.79292.423.2129FF27.3277.3148458.2820574543659.1670971280630.759269499520548441231210.5DRYL
2021-05-28 16:00:03FORECAST2021241-4459.2535.6947.47129.065018666670.00110.79112.423.2111FF27.25277.25148458.2674199424959.1462931092030.757965325450368441231210.5DRYL
2021-05-28 12:00:06FORECAST2021241-4458.8934.8646.875128.6814773333300.792.423.21FF26.89276.89148458.1313243019458.953015623850.748463343214238441231210.5DRYL
2021-05-28 07:59:26FORECAST2021241-4458.334.4546.375128.3939510833300.822.423.24FF26.3273.3148458.0292116246858.8081801920770.7324750733878441231210.5DRYL
2021-05-28 04:00:29FORECAST2021241-4458.5134.4946.5128.43888040700.882.423.3TF26.51276.51148458.0451728357258.830809174850.738223931570288441231210.5DRYL
2021-05-27 23:59:21FORECAST2021241-4458.4534.446.425130.290941951510.00040.93042.423.3504TF26.45271.45148458.7015379349159.7646554521440.736587881513238441231210.5DRYL
2021-05-27 20:00:05FORECAST2021241-4458.0734.6146.34129.7222402116600.952.423.37TF26.07271.07148458.5003201248959.4776886643640.726106582609728441231210.5DRYL
2021-05-27 15:59:26FORECAST2021241-4457.8234.8846.35130.029084490100.952.423.37TF25.82270.82148458.6089237426359.6324984932430.719100463631378441231210.5DRYL
2021-05-27 12:00:05FORECAST2021241-4458.0135.0646.535129.921577116780.00090.97092.423.3909TF26.01271.01148458.5708825118959.578252275780.724433010836358441231210.5DRYL
2021-05-27 07:59:36FORECAST2021241-4457.8634.7846.32130.222652438430.00141.10142.423.5214TF25.86269.86148458.6773911209859.7301864853150.720227234599598441241214DRYL
2021-05-27 04:00:08FORECAST2021241-4458.134.7346.415129.462405161450.0011.2212.423.641TF26.1274.1148458.4082886147459.3466395900110.726941482350538441241214DRYL
2021-05-27 00:00:06FORECAST2021241-4457.8235.7646.79132.049928629030.00221.34222.353.6922TF25.82267.82148459.3220652290260.653445931230.719100463631378441241214DRYL
2021-05-26 20:00:06FORECAST2021241-4459.7435.147.42132.792225791260.00261.23262.363.5926TF27.74279.74148459.583098730561.0290626164680.770579934769238441241214DRYL
2021-05-26 16:00:05FORECAST2021241-4459.8235.4347.625132.620049472280.00161.22162.363.5816TF27.82280.82148459.5225956685560.9419093711940.772603952756438441241214DRYL
2021-05-26 12:00:04FORECAST2021241-4460.1535.3847.765131.620167030730.00051.22052.363.5805TF28.15281.15148459.170711729960.4361257735080.780846045342718441241214DRYL
2021-05-26 08:00:06FORECAST2021241-4459.9433.5346.735131.988744190890.00081.23082.353.5808TF27.94280.94148459.3005273702660.6224998138130.775621066101018441241214DRYL
2021-05-26 04:00:08FORECAST2021241-4456.3531.7744.06132.520229214280.00081.25082.363.6108TF24.35277.35148459.4875065351960.8913896871420.676248801339178431241212DRYL
2021-05-26 00:00:05FORECAST2021241-4459.0131.6145.31132.928347116430.00081.25082.143.3908TF27.01273.01148459.6309132790661.09797758580.751652375950938441241214DRYL
2021-05-25 19:59:58FORECAST2021241-4455.5730.5543.06137.011854874970.00052.26052.264.5205TF23.57279.57148461.0576435235763.1703629434470.652472858556278431251215WETL
2021-05-25 16:00:04FORECAST2021241-4455.5931.7543.67134.064974842370.00051.29052.263.5505TF23.59279.59148460.0295252121361.6738467243130.653090552878258431241212DRYL
2021-05-25 12:00:05FORECAST2021241-4456.6931.1643.925133.819644235530.00351.37352.263.6335TF24.69276.69148459.943585866861.5494870291080.686398842264118431241212DRYL
2021-05-25 08:00:05FORECAST2021241-4452.5131.3141.91133.867545738880.00351.47352.343.8135TF20.51269.51148459.9603699775861.5737658660450.554133503251368431241212DRYL
2021-05-25 04:00:08FORECAST2021241-4452.5331.2941.91134.203675700520.00351.46352.333.7935TF20.53268.53148460.0780884502561.7441705792910.554794505215618431241212DRYL
2021-05-24 23:59:35FORECAST2021241-4457.2732.5844.925133.743723599880.00151.71152.023.7315TF25.27279.27148459.9169800053861.5110094527330.703389329805868441251217.5DRYL
2021-05-24 20:00:06FORECAST2021241-4459.3130.3744.84134.895230637210.00121.75122.063.8112TF27.31282.31148460.3199669674862.0949681109910.759529875365858441251217.5DRYL
2021-05-24 16:00:05FORECAST2021241-4459.3630.3344.845134.170426956320.00121.74122.143.8812TF27.36284.36148460.0664486488361.7273118434930.760829454718718441251217.5DRYL
2021-05-24 12:00:06FORECAST2021241-4455.9431.0443.49134.125885036860.0031.8332.073.903TF23.94278.94148460.0508537644861.7047279231220.663833140810468431251215DRYL
2021-05-24 08:00:06FORECAST2021241-4457.5532.4645.005134.180148338010.00251.76252.123.8825TF25.55276.55148460.0698520355261.7322409919720.711437992423538441251217.5DRYL
2021-05-24 04:00:08FORECAST2021241-4457.6132.4145.01134.939598845840.00251.65252.23.8525TF25.61275.61148460.3354707100762.1174837521260.713149239450858441251217.5DRYL
2021-05-24 00:00:06FORECAST2021241-4454.4735.3144.89134.732713161710.011.452.263.71TF22.47267.47148460.263162978662.0125047164970.617917812610718431241212DRYL
2021-05-23 20:00:06FORECAST2021241-4454.8135.3545.08135.28448856220.011.542.283.82TF22.81277.81148460.4559272036162.2925446171720.628714071262718431251215DRYL
2021-05-23 16:00:06FORECAST2021241-4455.9935.3445.665136.20066725260.00991.56992.333.8999TF23.99283.99148460.7754005969262.7579170148850.665357189303358431251215DRYL
2021-05-23 12:00:06FORECAST2021241-4458.1833.3745.775134.758752789770.00261.10262.293.3926TF26.18282.18148460.2722660681562.0257165190650.729161703423488441241214DRYL
2021-05-23 08:00:06FORECAST2021241-4456.8632.2744.565134.635367985390.00331.23332.23.4333TF24.86277.86148460.2291271342761.9631178893190.691422094249068431241212DRYL
2021-05-23 04:00:08FORECAST2021241-4456.8432.2744.555134.296600028520.00331.14332.193.3333TF24.84285.84148460.1106144132161.7912911527280.690832953484018431241212DRYL
2021-05-23 00:00:06FORECAST2021241-4451.2932.0441.665133.93627576860.0210.5212.392.911FF19.29267.29148459.9844485867461.6086039551810.51359707213837843123129DRYL
2021-05-22 20:00:07FORECAST2021241-4451.3232.1241.72135.674283228170.02020.53022.282.8102FF19.32280.32148460.5919402754662.4904813575450.51459729109574843123129DRYL
2021-05-22 16:00:06FORECAST2021241-4451.732.7242.21135.284587572190.0180.5382.32.838FF19.7285.7148460.4559617687862.2925948830440.52725666892382843123129DRYL
2021-05-22 12:00:06FORECAST2021241-4438.835.2737.035133.577147785910.11981.48982.053.5398TF6.8267.8148459.8585866830461.426598393980.15611492933714841124128DRYL
2021-05-22 08:00:07FORECAST2021241-4436.8535.1435.995133.688923577560.11351.48352.163.6435TF4.85265.85148459.8977725283161.4832381650250.12023966874446841124128DRYL
2021-05-22 04:00:08FORECAST2021241-4434.8933.1334.01134.155648787050.09471.53472.163.6947TF2.89276.89148460.0612747557461.7198187966510.0904548776110078411251210DRYL