Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, May 27, 2021

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DAY 239 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/28/2021 08:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 42.45°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.33°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.89°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.235 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 10 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 275 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.76 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.06 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.12 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.18 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 131 in SWE DAY: 146 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 457.75 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 59.78 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -46 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 4 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 8.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-05-28 07:59:26	OBSERVATION	2021	239	-46	42.45008	31.33004	36.89006	130.60505375	0.75999999999999	1.06	2.12	3.18	F	F	10.45008	275.45008	146	457.75146065288	59.78465412271	0.23547623141165	88	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-28 04:00:29	OBSERVATION	2021	239	-46	42.45008	31.33004	36.89006	130.60505375	0.75999999999999	1.06	2.12	3.18	F	F	10.45008	275.45008	146	457.75146065288	59.78465412271	0.23547623141165	88	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-27 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	239	-45	37.34	32.78	35.06	132.09328068727	0.6025	0.9025	2.12	3.0225	F	F	5.34	270.34	147	458.80978393069	60.60568957082	0.10926271691631	88	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-27 07:59:36	FORECAST	2021	239	-45	36.3	32.98	34.64	131.86852323599	0.742	1.042	2.12	3.162	F	F	4.3	269.3	147	458.73035689238	60.492094726916	0.091059611676903	88	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-27 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	239	-45	39.56	33	36.28	131.556034362	0.8803	1.1803	2.12	3.3003	T	F	7.56	272.56	147	458.61985107147	60.334208886653	0.15648257641521	88	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-27 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	42.36	33.23	37.795	133.78228821959	0.9819	1.2119	2.12	3.3319	T	F	10.36	267.36	146	458.87793244262	61.389739815649	0.23272336672055	88	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-26 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	42.23	33.19	37.71	134.68742002955	0.9161	1.1561	2.12	3.2761	T	F	10.23	277.23	146	459.19718189011	61.848083713617	0.22878220797687	88	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-26 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	42.04	33.02	37.53	134.63319637245	0.9086	1.1486	2.12	3.2686	T	F	10.04	277.04	146	459.17807730044	61.820612251112	0.22308991987414	88	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-26 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	42.37	32.83	37.6	133.49754395251	0.9207	1.1607	2.12	3.2807	T	F	10.37	277.37	146	458.77734830193	61.245649219354	0.23302808511643	88	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-26 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	42.17	32.8	37.485	133.71036860398	0.9244	1.1544	2.12	3.2744	T	F	10.17	278.17	146	458.85253415216	61.353341476355	0.22697590403815	88	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-26 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	42.23	32.74	37.485	134.11547714941	0.909	1.149	2.12	3.269	T	F	10.23	278.23	146	458.99553703055	61.558405458302	0.22878220797687	88	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-26 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	42.22	32.93	37.575	134.43618283797	0.9085	0.9285	2.12	3.0485	F	F	10.22	272.22	146	459.10864148394	61.720813269028	0.22848059906523	88	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-25 19:59:57	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	41.98	32.79	37.385	137.96039218312	1.8212	1.9612	2.12	4.0812	T	F	9.98	281.98	146	460.34548711715	63.50944394241	0.22130922186813	88	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2021-05-25 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	42.18	32.81	37.495	134.97305756908	0.8196	0.9596	2.12	3.0796	F	F	10.18	282.18	146	459.29777697235	61.992825292639	0.22727639599873	88	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-25 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	41.95	32.6	37.275	134.39139496008	0.8695	1.0095	2.12	3.1295	F	F	9.95	280.95	146	459.09285151296	61.698128731028	0.22042192450084	88	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-25 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	41.56	32.95	37.255	134.35152990791	0.97	1.19	2.12	3.31	T	F	9.56	279.56	146	459.07879557363	61.677938533595	0.2090736992358	88	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-25 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	41.39	32.88	37.135	134.61048541682	0.9401	1.1501	2.12	3.2701	T	F	9.39	277.39	146	459.17007478075	61.809106655113	0.20423650724103	88	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-24 23:59:33	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	41.76	32.35	37.055	135.21491050796	1.2714	1.5714	1.72	3.2914	T	F	9.76	278.76	146	459.38289506702	62.115417045375	0.21484984807393	88	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-05-24 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	40.3	33.4	36.85	136.05950868464	1.3691	1.7091	1.72	3.4291	T	F	8.3	280.3	146	459.67973443891	62.543798820043	0.17483256037869	88	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-05-24 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	41.61	33.52	37.565	135.73725834821	1.3607	1.7807	1.72	3.5007	T	F	9.61	281.61	146	459.56655264591	62.380303884695	0.21050911483327	88	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-05-24 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	44.11	33.34	38.725	134.37279332681	1.0742	1.4242	1.72	3.1442	T	F	12.11	284.11	146	459.08629297725	61.688707565402	0.28927013415811	88	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-05-24 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	43.4	33.33	38.365	134.52868205732	1.0149	1.3149	1.82	3.1349	T	F	11.4	280.4	146	459.14124640804	61.767666757428	0.2655698281888	88	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-05-24 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	44.39	33.77	39.08	135.04823244101	1.0072	1.3172	1.89	3.2072	T	F	12.39	283.39	146	459.32423973291	62.030926693239	0.29888223905736	88	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-05-24 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	41.66	34.68	38.17	135.30434476745	0.7915	1.1315	1.92	3.0515	F	F	9.66	273.66	146	459.41435745709	62.160758612488	0.21195028670895	88	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-23 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	43.59	34.24	38.915	135.20836723853	0.8453	1.1753	1.95	3.1253	F	F	11.59	283.59	146	459.38059290685	62.112099908002	0.27181461938325	88	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-05-23 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	44.95	34.23	39.59	135.28255368225	0.858	1.258	1.93	3.188	T	F	12.95	287.95	146	459.40669215377	62.149710493279	0.31852805453768	88	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-05-23 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	44.99	33.38	39.185	135.78178307463	0.8333	1.2133	1.91	3.1233	F	F	12.99	282.99	146	459.5821962789	62.402890080106	0.31995193019524	88	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-05-23 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	43.73	33.33	38.53	135.47747431257	0.9383	1.2483	1.89	3.1383	T	F	11.73	280.73	146	459.47524299793	62.248545430514	0.27646227935209	88	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-05-23 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	43.79	34.48	39.135	135.13683027919	0.8493	1.1893	1.85	3.0393	F	F	11.79	288.79	146	459.35542110674	62.075835579926	0.27846598007677	88	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-05-23 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	49.03	37.01	43.02	134.79464	0.2958	0.8858	1.8	2.6858	F	F	17.03	277.03	146	459.23495089553	61.90240988138	0.47396733074951	88	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-22 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	49.05	36.99	43.02	136.3372046228	0.3061	0.7561	1.83	2.5861	F	F	17.05	290.05	146	459.77719340769	62.684737298522	0.47476066702324	88	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-22 16:00:05	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	47.66	36.78	42.22	135.914032	0.3222	0.7222	1.9	2.6222	F	F	15.66	292.66	146	459.62865112358	62.469983196927	0.4200358936649	88	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-22 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	42.53	39.8	41.165	134.76565578591	0.4604	0.6604	1.85	2.5104	F	F	10.53	288.53	146	459.22474201217	61.887723510384	0.23793354669541	88	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-22 08:00:07	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	42.55	39.6	41.075	134.40333094833	0.4604	0.7004	1.92	2.6204	F	F	10.55	287.55	146	459.09705972242	61.704174055279	0.23855067901893	88	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-22 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	47.44	40.95	44.195	133.621743	0.5153	0.7253	1.95	2.6753	F	F	15.44	299.44	146	458.82122978812	61.308492449692	0.41148698235054	88	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-22 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	45.52	38.17	41.845	132.781704	0.3959	0.5759	1.87	2.4459	F	F	13.52	288.52	146	458.52416073157	60.883619387108	0.33906201472535	88	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-21 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	43.67	36.54	40.105	133.986868	0.5144	0.7844	1.93	2.7144	F	F	11.67	302.67	146	458.95015408093	61.493293713421	0.2744656661484	88	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-21 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	43.69	36.54	40.115	133.95149866667	0.515	0.745	1.63	2.375	F	F	11.69	303.69	146	458.93767052911	61.475388761963	0.27513041353689	88	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-21 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	36.72	34.13	35.425	134.57873363854	0.6545	1.1445	1.47	2.6145	F	F	4.72	292.72	146	459.15888582812	61.79302139363	0.098120804846877	88	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-21 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	43.86	34.98	39.42	133.66258721374	0.4136	0.7536	1.36	2.1136	F	F	11.86	292.86	146	458.83565766976	61.329161110056	0.28081252666784	88	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-21 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	45.54	34.96	40.25	133.30260816667	0.4136	0.7536	1.36	2.1136	F	F	13.54	304.54	146	458.70844648749	61.147032304863	0.33979171383646	88	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-20 23:59:56	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	46.31	38.18	42.245	131.72346523347	0.1253	0.2453	1.28	1.5253	F	F	14.31	319.31	146	458.14902478128	60.348977137525	0.36831829958815	88	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-20 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	46.32	38.32	42.32	132.08903165149	0.0931	0.2031	1.24	1.4431	F	F	14.32	308.32	146	458.27872874349	60.533593506204	0.36869400093774	88	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-20 16:00:07	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	47.66	39.24	43.45	130.91875702571	0.0423	0.0823	1.3	1.3823	F	F	15.66	331.66	146	457.86308741645	59.942866292517	0.4200358936649	88	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-05-20 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	37.67	33.12	35.395	132.30410266952	0.0012	0.1112	1.31	1.4212	F	F	5.67	309.67	146	458.35498027616	60.642244369542	0.11554977670843	88	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-20 08:00:15	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	36.18	34.46	35.32	132.88109056339	0	0.1	1.39	1.49	F	F	4.18	299.18	146	458.55934058859	60.933865265439	0.089112859731324	88	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-20 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	239	-46	35.62	34.46	35.04	133.07871004516	0	0.1	1.37	1.47	F	F	3.62	302.62	146	458.62926556699	61.033791050614	0.080434783199282	88	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L