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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, May 26, 2021

[ Tuesday, May 25, 2021 | Index | Today | Thursday, May 27, 2021 ]

DAY 238 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/27/2021 08:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 50.87°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.21°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.04°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.504
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 85 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 19
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 272

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.07 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.01 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.52 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.53 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 132 in
SWE DAY: 145
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 457.60 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 60.26 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -47

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-05-27 07:59:36OBSERVATION2021238-4750.8699431.2099841.03996131.679526666670.070000000000051.011.522.53FF18.86994271.86994145457.60130377779 60.256723083510.5042114124272285 31241212DRYL
2021-05-27 04:00:07OBSERVATION2021238-4750.8699431.2099841.03996131.679526666670.070000000000051.011.522.53FF18.86994271.86994145457.60130377779 60.256723083510.5042114124272285 31241212DRYL
2021-05-27 00:00:03FORECAST2021238-4643.0443.0443.04132.93964800.941.522.46FF11.04264.04146458.5800640042460.9634722885410.21303596952699851123126DRYL
2021-05-26 12:00:02FORECAST2021238-4652.6542.5447.595132.838060.00710.94711.522.4671FF20.65273.65146458.544110152360.9121100170580.57686949936313853123129DRYL
2021-05-26 08:00:03FORECAST2021238-4653.9632.7143.335132.746506424550.00410.94411.522.4641FF21.96274.96146458.5116997178560.8658262923280.62885165015087853123129DRYL
2021-05-26 04:00:07FORECAST2021238-4654.0635.3744.715133.102817750.00770.94771.522.4677FF22.06275.06146458.637793350261.0459826215540.6327376652701853123129DRYL
2021-05-26 00:00:05FORECAST2021238-4753.8735.1644.515133.553738666670.01890.72891.522.2489FF21.87268.87145458.2676082787961.2033523954640.62534295945468853123129DRYL
2021-05-25 19:59:56FORECAST2021238-4753.5936.7245.155134.527881333330.02160.85161.522.3716FF21.59278.59145458.612676748361.6961917555580.61436172516811853123129DRYL
2021-05-25 16:00:02FORECAST2021238-4753.6336.4545.04134.543734666670.02260.85261.522.3726FF21.63278.63145458.6182853830261.7042169018550.61593632625743853123129DRYL
2021-05-25 12:00:04FORECAST2021238-4753.1536.2944.72133.915450666670.02430.85431.522.3743FF21.15278.15145458.3958364127261.3862850169330.59692205121104853123129DRYL
2021-05-25 08:00:02FORECAST2021238-4752.8936.5144.7133.8427440.0270.9271.522.447FF20.89276.89145458.3700711115861.3495080850490.58652298113948853123129DRYL
2021-05-25 04:00:08FORECAST2021238-4749.8136.5443.175133.999471416670.02640.91641.522.4364FF17.81274.81145458.42560519761.4287887802630.46072385198918852123127.5DRYL
2021-05-24 23:59:32FORECAST2021238-4752.935.6744.285133.697822666670.02140.61141.522.1314FF20.9275.9145458.3187006645661.2762123662670.58692411962204853123129DRYL
2021-05-24 20:00:06FORECAST2021238-4751.6235.4143.515134.797589333330.03050.65051.522.1705FF19.62278.62145458.7080640113161.8327412364860.53498533764532853123129DRYL
2021-05-24 16:00:03FORECAST2021238-4752.735.4944.095134.759213333330.02670.72671.522.2467FF20.7278.7145458.6944956105161.8133093888020.57888465394132853123129DRYL
2021-05-24 12:00:06FORECAST2021238-4752.7335.1743.95134.168068786630.02010.66011.522.1801FF20.73278.73145458.4853205509161.5140900253350.58009275917355853123129DRYL
2021-05-24 08:00:04FORECAST2021238-4752.7834.6343.705134.310104140990.03350.71351.522.2335FF20.78275.78145458.5356080852961.5859652742870.58210458652037853123129DRYL
2021-05-24 04:00:08FORECAST2021238-4753.2234.1943.705134.632020166670.03330.79331.522.3133FF21.22278.22145458.649515133161.7489107708320.599710457276853123129DRYL
2021-05-24 00:00:06FORECAST2021238-4753.2233.943.56136.119722666670.00471.01471.362.3747FF21.22271.22145459.174716969162.5027351293790.5997104572768531241212DRYL
2021-05-23 20:00:06FORECAST2021238-4754.5934.6144.6136.0091320.00920.95921.432.3892FF22.59278.59145459.1357435228462.4466539467160.65309887498939853123129DRYL
2021-05-23 16:00:06FORECAST2021238-4755.233444.615136.055387022840.00571.00571.432.4357FF23.23282.23145459.1520456665562.4701092754930.677104877571158531241212DRYL
2021-05-23 12:00:06FORECAST2021238-4750.7634.2442.5135.693158666670.01130.97131.432.4013FF18.76276.76145459.0243304764562.2864613072020.49969422544806853123129DRYL
2021-05-23 08:00:05FORECAST2021238-4751.4135.0243.215135.449618666670.01460.89461.422.3146FF19.41276.41145458.9383965775962.1630308079260.52638246486495853123129DRYL
2021-05-23 04:00:08FORECAST2021238-4755.2332.7744135.098223175880.0140.8941.412.304FF23.23284.23145458.814311788961.9849982903460.67710487757115853123129DRYL
2021-05-23 00:00:06FORECAST2021238-4755.0332.5443.785136.1422280.09281.18281.322.5028FF23.03267.03145459.1826467716462.5141485904280.669676041987288531241212DRYL
2021-05-22 20:00:06FORECAST2021238-4752.9530.8841.915137.54522862280.06391.04391.352.3939FF20.95279.95145459.6761031572663.2262547012040.588928443196498531241212DRYL
2021-05-22 16:00:05FORECAST2021238-475433.7843.89137.142720.06481.08481.332.4148FF22284145459.5347146654663.0218407036460.630407658049638531241212DRYL
2021-05-22 12:00:06FORECAST2021238-4755.2434.0944.665135.999482452580.01240.83241.332.1624FF23.24285.24145459.1323423899862.4417609422760.67747450371471853123129DRYL
2021-05-22 08:00:06FORECAST2021238-4754.0834.344.19135.5804136150.01030.93031.342.2703FF22.08284.08145458.9845546182562.2293157580380.63351325475679853123129DRYL
2021-05-22 04:00:08FORECAST2021238-4757.2534.3645.805135.076040333330.01030.92031.352.2703FF25.25291.25145458.8064748656861.9737619041510.747832649642868541231210.5DRYL
2021-05-22 00:00:06FORECAST2021238-4758.0934.7446.415133.999513333330.01320.72321.442.1632FF26.09282.09145458.425620046661.4288099857770.774640966197998541231210.5DRYL
2021-05-21 20:00:06FORECAST2021238-4755.8532.7344.29135.06730.02440.86441.452.3144FF23.85297.85145458.8033868930261.9693346984950.699679048815818541231210.5DRYL
2021-05-21 16:00:06FORECAST2021238-4755.9132.7544.33135.0313840.02470.56471.411.9747FF23.91298.91145458.7906969975561.9511427819030.701825354152138541231210.5DRYL
2021-05-21 12:00:06FORECAST2021238-4746.0735.1140.59134.536829151950.23960.67961.392.0696FF14.07295.07145458.6158423592961.700721229870.31426005450257852123127.5DRYL
2021-05-21 08:00:06FORECAST2021238-4745.7936.0240.905134.416003213740.17930.41931.391.8093FF13.79287.79145458.5730897861761.639561910430.30409785808752852122125DRYL
2021-05-21 04:00:04FORECAST2021238-4745.2736.0340.65134.097844166670.17930.39931.411.8093FF13.27298.27145458.4604508620561.4785580962790.28562505571617852122125DRYL
2021-05-20 23:59:56FORECAST2021238-4749.8535.8242.835132.879665233470.0280.1781.331.508FF17.85311.85145458.0283323859460.8626514748880.46235974666463852122125DRYL
2021-05-20 20:00:06FORECAST2021238-4745.135.9840.54133.095444984830.0280.1581.31.458FF13.1301.1145458.1049723246860.9716851413150.27970369810927852122125DRYL
2021-05-20 16:00:07FORECAST2021238-4755.7439.6747.705131.901773025710.01080.08081.371.4508FF23.74322.74145457.6804808487560.3688669032110.69572615307505853121123DRYL
2021-05-20 12:00:06FORECAST2021238-4747.4937.1142.3132.495928002850.09290.16291.371.5329FF15.49311.49145457.8919340489360.6688167268330.36784889570423852122125DRYL
2021-05-20 08:00:15FORECAST2021238-4749.2936.5642.925133.013875896720.08820.13821.461.5982FF17.29302.29145458.0760058236360.9304649898890.43952764388968852122125DRYL
2021-05-20 04:00:08FORECAST2021238-4749.336.5642.93133.157047378490.08820.13821.441.5782FF17.3306.3145458.1268443526361.0028179188240.4399338309081852122125DRYL
2021-05-20 00:00:06FORECAST2021238-4759.7438.4749.105131.968096169090.00360.09361.11.1936FF27.74306.74145457.7041003493760.4023387318930.82231592914103854122127DRYL
2021-05-19 20:00:06FORECAST2021238-4759.838.5749.185133.307952346490.00160.10161.371.4716FF27.8315.8145458.1804089438561.0790921215820.82392062142757854122127DRYL
2021-05-19 16:00:06FORECAST2021238-4759.3438.8549.095132.794124924380.00140.08141.281.3614FF27.34324.34145457.9979388333960.8194355045520.81138401594133854121123.5DRYL
2021-05-19 12:00:06FORECAST2021238-4740.6336.6638.645134.047198544660.00770.14771.411.5577FF8.63302.63145458.4425122214161.4529344570570.1481760526271851122124DRYL
2021-05-19 08:00:02FORECAST2021238-4737.6436.7837.21134.673428729650.00550.14551.481.6255FF5.64284.64145458.6641604155961.7698751185730.088080199659727851122124DRYL
2021-05-19 03:59:54FORECAST2021238-4737.7237.0837.4134.950518932640.00180.15181.411.5618FF5.72292.72145458.7621213917561.9101863484550.089406938532581851122124DRYL