Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, May 25, 2021

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DAY 237 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/26/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 41.12°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.15°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 38.14°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.191 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 86 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 9 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 252 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.23 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.10 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.63 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.73 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 134 in SWE DAY: 144 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.05 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 61.58 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -48 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 4 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 8.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-05-26 04:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	237	-48	41.12006	35.15	38.13503	134.43706708333	0.23000000000002	1.1	1.63	2.73	F	F	9.12006	252.12006	144	458.05012279195	61.57891508531	0.19106224610873	86	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-26 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	237	-47	35.19	35.19	35.19	134.98256133333	0.0027	0.8727	1.63	2.5027	F	F	3.19	246.19	145	458.77344504255	61.926414683561	0.077782101077378	86	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-25 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	237	-47	45.09	37.95	41.52	135.339408	0.1241	0.9941	1.63	2.6241	F	F	13.09	256.09	145	458.89949090289	62.107185430298	0.30546748957277	86	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-05-25 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	237	-47	43.5	36.78	40.14	135.27752533333	0.1891	1.0591	1.63	2.6891	F	F	11.5	254.5	145	458.8776408114	62.075831679764	0.25623111691508	86	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-05-25 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	237	-47	44.58	37.45	41.015	135.36203808333	0.1805	1.0505	1.63	2.6805	F	F	12.58	255.58	145	458.90748047975	62.118651849426	0.28922358607455	86	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-05-24 23:59:31	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	40.22	37.22	38.72	135.08887066667	0.2755	0.7455	1.63	2.3755	F	F	8.22	254.22	144	458.28146405078	61.908725426086	0.16932779871719	86	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-24 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	43.54	36.66	40.1	136.09116666667	0.3057	0.7757	1.63	2.4057	F	F	11.54	257.54	144	458.63645729676	62.416370549383	0.2574171799998	86	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-24 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	43.13	36.28	39.705	136.131292	0.3887	0.8587	1.63	2.4887	F	F	11.13	257.13	144	458.65065008352	62.43670557251	0.24539636799677	86	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-24 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	43.29	36.39	39.84	135.52352878663	0.3338	0.8038	1.63	2.4338	F	F	11.29	257.29	144	458.43552227164	62.128799699394	0.25005127575858	86	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-24 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	43.7	36.49	40.095	135.63336547432	0.2717	0.8417	1.63	2.4717	F	F	11.7	253.7	144	458.47442536805	62.184429296576	0.26218976137491	86	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-24 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	43.36	36.13	39.745	135.95801483333	0.2785	0.9185	1.63	2.5485	F	F	11.36	256.36	144	458.58934961326	62.348897597128	0.25210241028771	86	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-24 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	38.86	34.5	36.68	137.42390533333	0.3351	1.0051	1.63	2.6351	F	F	6.86	248.86	144	459.1070891131	63.092289152141	0.13962099485475	86	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-23 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	39.06	35.83	37.445	137.407232	0.3229	1.0229	1.63	2.6529	F	F	7.06	255.06	144	459.10121107185	63.08382662123	0.14375284821484	86	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-23 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	41.59	35.21	38.4	137.44386568951	0.3935	1.0735	1.63	2.7035	F	F	9.59	257.59	144	459.1141256388	63.102420220456	0.20305931308884	86	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-23 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	41.31	35.06	38.185	137.001332	0.3658	1.0258	1.63	2.6558	F	F	9.31	257.31	144	458.95803767144	62.877862493094	0.19585805767307	86	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-23 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	38.76	35.32	37.04	136.854716	0.2977	0.9377	1.63	2.5677	F	F	6.76	255.76	144	458.90628540419	62.803489359605	0.13758556325493	86	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-23 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	40.54	35.29	37.915	136.50228184255	0.3324	0.9324	1.63	2.5624	F	F	8.54	259.54	144	458.78180491906	62.624763239295	0.17686663658607	86	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-23 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	39.75	35.1	37.425	137.524256	0.5008	1.1408	1.54	2.6808	F	F	7.75	242.75	144	459.14246162613	63.143225433143	0.15863410220696	86	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-22 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	38.44	35.32	36.88	138.7068406228	0.3934	1.0434	1.56	2.6034	F	F	6.44	258.44	144	459.55863130447	63.743925829182	0.13120836470225	86	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-22 16:00:04	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	39.37	34.36	36.865	138.45674266667	0.3415	1.0615	1.56	2.6215	F	F	7.37	261.37	144	459.47072219571	63.616819545919	0.15031831660014	86	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-22 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	38.99	34.55	36.77	137.42912511924	0.1852	0.8552	1.56	2.4152	F	F	6.99	260.99	144	459.10892925288	63.094938481655	0.14229743992016	86	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-22 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	39.75	34.89	37.32	137.11736694833	0.2321	0.9721	1.56	2.5321	F	F	7.75	260.75	144	458.99898183092	62.936731820621	0.15863410220696	86	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-22 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	41.99	34.9	38.445	136.70620033333	0.2008	0.9708	1.56	2.5308	F	F	9.99	264.99	144	458.85384294315	62.728165377106	0.21361612093436	86	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-22 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	43.65	36.49	40.07	135.65935733333	0.1695	0.8095	1.61	2.4195	F	F	11.65	254.65	144	458.48362984611	62.197594572776	0.2606934807717	86	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-21 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	43.96	35.37	39.665	136.52793866667	0.2489	0.9089	1.65	2.5589	F	F	11.96	272.96	144	458.79087072456	62.637771859109	0.27004062833316	86	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-21 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	44.1	36.11	40.105	136.49338933333	0.208	0.638	1.58	2.218	F	F	12.1	274.1	144	458.7786626246	62.620254615446	0.2743161418775	86	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-21 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	47.39	36.13	41.76	135.39230781862	0.2522	0.5222	1.58	2.1022	F	F	15.39	280.39	144	458.38903083826	62.062348763932	0.38316795789674	86	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-21 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	50.09	37.77	43.93	135.30400854707	0.1646	0.3146	1.59	1.9046	F	F	18.09	273.09	144	458.35773778814	62.017639271301	0.48053345558447	86	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-21 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	50.1	37.21	43.655	134.92686416667	0.1646	0.3046	1.6	1.9046	F	F	18.1	284.1	144	458.22399968812	61.826727363826	0.4808999884727	86	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-20 23:59:56	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	50.82	37.73	44.275	134.02864923347	0.093	0.243	1.51	1.753	F	F	18.82	292.82	144	457.90496986267	61.372384587986	0.50731351584406	86	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-20 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	45.68	37.92	41.8	134.11246365149	0.0831	0.2031	1.5	1.7031	F	F	13.68	286.68	144	457.93477003952	61.41476020168	0.32474663466014	86	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-20 16:00:07	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	55.13	37.92	46.525	133.65132502571	0.0279	0.1479	1.56	1.7079	F	F	23.13	298.13	144	457.77073382165	61.181665133257	0.66085039015066	86	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-20 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	51.76	39.27	45.515	133.70559200285	0.0234	0.1634	1.55	1.7134	F	F	19.76	294.76	144	457.79004764541	61.209089333443	0.541731921247	86	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-20 08:00:15	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	54.84	38.79	46.815	134.29854256339	0.0126	0.1626	1.62	1.7826	F	F	22.84	283.84	144	458.00090763598	61.50885438822	0.65103239180182	86	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-20 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	54.87	38.8	46.835	134.44313537849	0.0106	0.1506	1.61	1.7606	F	F	22.87	287.87	144	458.05227834718	61.581984468258	0.65205288359291	86	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-20 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	50.64	38.86	44.75	133.91625216909	0.0346	0.2146	1.25	1.4646	F	F	18.64	277.64	144	457.86499717981	61.315564421733	0.50070861525032	86	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-19 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	51.11	37.38	44.245	135.00234567982	0.0366	0.2066	1.53	1.7366	F	F	19.11	287.11	144	458.25077622907	61.864929700524	0.51794975319663	86	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-19 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	53.54	36.23	44.885	133.96749025772	0.005	0.225	1.4	1.625	F	F	21.54	295.54	144	457.88322081368	61.34146592353	0.60585395310802	86	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-19 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	53.68	36.99	45.335	134.42018921133	0.0043	0.3443	1.48	1.8243	F	F	21.68	292.68	144	458.04412732789	61.570378262553	0.61080082168394	86	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-19 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	53.37	36.9	45.135	134.93418872965	0.0043	0.3343	1.56	1.8943	F	F	21.37	278.37	144	458.22659825073	61.830434289308	0.5998240835981	86	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-19 03:59:53	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	52.8	36.81	44.805	135.10003226597	0.0054	0.3354	1.49	1.8254	F	F	20.8	285.8	144	458.2854222447	61.914375332284	0.57943996282222	86	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-18 23:59:53	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	52.92	35.06	43.99	135.94478958053	0.0125	0.1525	1.17	1.3225	F	F	20.92	291.92	144	458.58466979149	62.342196439659	0.58375105693789	86	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-18 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	52.93	34.87	43.9	135.41619069946	0.0091	0.1591	1.33	1.4891	F	F	20.93	291.93	144	458.39749366816	62.074442418723	0.58410986800372	86	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-18 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	49.49	34.08	41.785	135.14880979848	0.0038	0.1638	1.11	1.2738	F	F	17.49	292.49	144	458.3027187119	61.93906696132	0.45858270569679	86	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-18 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	48.4	36.43	42.415	134.98252976375	0.0009	0.0209	1.05	1.0709	F	F	16.4	301.4	144	458.24374716784	61.854900241134	0.41907234890233	86	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-05-18 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	39.51	36.49	38	135.19897144329	0.0009	0.0209	1.13	1.1509	F	F	7.51	303.51	144	458.32050374915	61.964460698256	0.15334768352503	86	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2021-05-18 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	237	-48	38.36	36.8	37.58	135.52318919718	0.0009	0.0409	1.23	1.2709	F	F	6.36	293.36	144	458.4354019755	62.12862771661	0.1296463916006	86	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L