Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, May 24, 2021

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DAY 236 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/25/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 40.64°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.68°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.16°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.194 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 9 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 241 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.71 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.96 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.33 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.29 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 136 in SWE DAY: 143 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.15 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 62.40 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -49 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-05-25 04:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	236	-49	40.64	31.67996	36.15998	136.20215541667	0.71000000000004	0.96000000000004	2.33	3.29	T	F	8.64	240.64	143	458.14565297795	62.400425430373	0.19361217559216	90	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-24 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	236	-48	43.59	38.15	40.87	136.38199333333	0.309	0.559	2.33	2.889	F	F	11.59	243.59	144	458.7392932515	62.563779233964	0.27157153649576	90	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-24 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	236	-48	39.64	33.07	36.355	136.56745480766	0.4115	0.6615	2.33	2.9915	F	F	7.64	239.64	144	458.80483254602	62.657808234263	0.17063286095699	90	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-24 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	236	-48	42.78	32.96	37.87	136.86460683333	0.4812	0.7312	2.33	3.0612	F	F	10.78	242.78	144	458.90977726003	62.808506236667	0.24872289517471	90	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-24 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	44.64	34.47	39.555	138.164092	0.671	0.761	2.33	3.091	F	F	12.64	239.64	143	458.84036104625	63.395261856908	0.30266464166978	90	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-23 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	44.05	35.08	39.565	138.16305333333	0.6282	0.7882	2.33	3.1182	F	F	12.05	246.05	143	458.83999417678	63.394734586912	0.28499654489433	90	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-23 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	44.14	34.81	39.475	138.1964	0.6053	0.7653	2.33	3.0953	F	F	12.14	246.14	143	458.85177213463	63.411663042626	0.2876596872633	90	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-23 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	43.83	34.76	39.295	137.74583733333	0.5879	0.7479	2.33	3.0779	F	F	11.83	245.83	143	458.69255019442	63.182989405093	0.27853654495023	90	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-23 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	43.91	34.57	39.24	137.572708	0.577	0.727	2.33	3.057	F	F	11.91	246.91	143	458.6313204644	63.095152729903	0.28087737663502	90	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-23 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	43.98	34.47	39.225	137.18588025	0.5482	0.6882	2.33	3.0182	F	F	11.98	248.98	143	458.49441582362	62.898960024474	0.28293336544641	90	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-23 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	43.38	34.56	38.97	138.27072933333	0.5857	0.6357	2.33	2.9657	F	F	11.38	233.38	143	458.87802147634	63.44939870457	0.26554905554062	90	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-22 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	42.91	34.36	38.635	139.373612	0.591	0.671	2.33	3.001	F	F	10.91	249.91	143	459.26692182768	64.009689767246	0.25231981398526	90	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-22 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	44.01	35.13	39.57	139.19605466667	0.6849	0.7449	2.33	3.0749	F	F	12.01	252.01	143	459.20438481481	63.919438651856	0.28381670770282	90	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-22 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	43.9	35.19	39.545	138.10561866667	0.6339	0.6939	2.33	3.0239	F	F	11.9	251.9	143	458.81970605965	63.365579361826	0.28058425390122	90	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-22 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	44.15	35.35	39.75	137.80336666667	0.6866	0.7566	2.33	3.0866	F	F	12.15	251.15	143	458.71289032822	63.212180620626	0.28795631566469	90	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-22 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	44.68	35.21	39.945	137.57622033333	0.7058	0.7858	2.33	3.1158	F	F	12.68	252.68	143	458.63256292024	63.096934528356	0.30388003005787	90	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-22 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	45.15	35.5	40.325	136.62542666667	0.5441	0.7141	2.33	3.0441	F	F	13.15	241.15	143	458.29582339149	62.614862410413	0.31832042788069	90	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-21 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	44.98	35.44	40.21	137.48034133333	0.5922	0.7422	2.36	3.1022	F	F	12.98	258.98	143	458.59864262065	63.048297922491	0.31306385418183	90	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-21 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	45.42	33.99	39.705	137.42031733333	0.3349	0.4449	2.36	2.8049	F	F	13.42	260.42	143	458.57740298291	63.017852239808	0.32674439680623	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-21 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	49.03	34.5	41.765	136.42802248528	0.1867	0.2767	2.36	2.6367	F	F	17.03	263.03	143	458.22580738128	62.51484075275	0.44630739679122	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-21 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	42.95	33.1	38.025	136.6456378804	0.0753	0.1553	2.37	2.5253	F	F	10.95	252.95	143	458.30298999495	62.625104410356	0.25343204172782	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-21 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	49.01	32.94	40.975	136.2520935	0.0574	0.1674	2.36	2.5274	F	F	17.01	264.01	143	458.16337867688	62.425719509758	0.4456199406102	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-20 23:59:55	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	49.64	31.84	40.74	135.39383990014	0.0615	0.1815	2.27	2.4515	F	F	17.64	271.64	143	457.8584255802	61.991210369934	0.46734265653763	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-20 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	49.15	31.75	40.45	135.39221031816	0.0488	0.1388	2.27	2.4088	F	F	17.15	271.15	143	457.85784592757	61.990385771644	0.45043545196998	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-20 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	48.75	33.3	41.025	135.35244235905	0.0422	0.1922	2.28	2.4722	F	F	16.75	272.75	143	457.84369946884	61.970262941808	0.4366986249537	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-20 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	48.51	34.56	41.535	135.26446666952	0.0486	0.1786	2.3	2.4786	F	F	16.51	272.51	143	457.81239923581	61.925750017324	0.42849193548935	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-20 08:00:15	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	43.93	34.79	39.36	135.92345456339	0.0395	0.1895	2.37	2.5595	F	F	11.93	258.93	143	458.04668582701	62.259287888918	0.28146406530402	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-20 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	43.91	34.79	39.35	136.05875404516	0.0383	0.1583	2.38	2.5383	F	F	11.91	262.91	143	458.094739655	62.327799512102	0.28087737663502	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-20 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	49.07	36.19	42.63	135.42302950243	0.055	0.235	1.98	2.215	F	F	17.07	257.07	143	457.86880810027	62.005981107604	0.44768279134174	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-19 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	48.16	33.77	40.965	136.34583367982	0.0577	0.2577	2.23	2.4877	F	F	16.16	266.16	143	458.19664601371	62.473203690038	0.41658000357762	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-19 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	48.36	36.44	42.4	135.44994092438	0.0671	0.2571	2.15	2.4071	F	F	16.36	272.36	143	457.87837960691	62.019599468309	0.42337817824851	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-19 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	47.46	34.77	41.115	135.848847878	0.1425	0.4025	2.21	2.6125	F	F	15.46	269.46	143	458.02018097553	62.221513890397	0.39299485828279	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-19 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	47.49	34.85	41.17	136.36530739631	0.1425	0.4125	2.27	2.6825	F	F	15.49	255.49	143	458.20355602333	62.483068767206	0.39399829772626	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-19 03:59:53	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	49.04	34.65	41.845	136.49326693264	0.1419	0.3619	2.25	2.6119	F	F	17.04	263.04	143	458.24895239581	62.547896580963	0.44665118553813	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-18 23:59:53	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	48.31	35.3	41.805	137.30325624719	0.0141	0.1541	1.95	2.1041	F	F	16.31	269.31	143	458.53597131716	62.958481968316	0.42167641183348	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-18 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	44.8	35.28	40.04	136.58802536613	0.0141	0.1641	2.11	2.2741	F	F	12.8	268.8	143	458.28256046199	62.595909993237	0.30753917148785	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-18 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	44.36	35.11	39.735	135.71799913181	0.0325	0.1725	1.89	2.0625	F	F	12.36	273.36	143	457.97368337778	62.155271963059	0.29421857800849	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-18 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	51.29	34.73	43.01	135.49765376375	0.003	0.023	1.84	1.863	F	F	19.29	283.29	143	457.89534788456	62.043745307693	0.52453163187463	90	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-18 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	51.76	34.97	43.365	135.44825144329	0.0029	0.0229	1.92	1.9429	F	F	19.76	293.76	143	457.87777873337	62.018744504173	0.54078084562247	90	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-18 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	52.36	35.82	44.09	135.68112119718	0.0062	0.0362	2.02	2.0562	F	F	20.36	285.36	143	457.96057587227	62.136604398455	0.56142234983923	90	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-18 00:00:07	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	47.41	33.91	40.66	138.16208442877	0.0663	0.1763	2.01	2.1863	F	F	15.41	263.41	143	458.83965194724	63.394242731602	0.39132404083267	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-17 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	48.25	33.42	40.835	139.01986563893	0.0348	0.1748	2.14	2.3148	F	F	16.25	283.25	143	459.14230184436	63.829901111554	0.41963622374251	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-17 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	47.36	33.47	40.415	139.05091758239	0.0157	0.1557	2.09	2.2457	F	F	15.36	281.36	143	459.15324550113	63.845680097865	0.38965522570407	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-17 11:59:57	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	41.59	36.61	39.1	137.90364706247	0.0068	0.0468	2.06	2.1068	F	F	9.59	280.59	143	458.74833846915	63.263068958745	0.21710138433318	90	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2021-05-17 08:00:07	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	38.96	37.48	38.22	138.63401204173	0.0056	0.0856	2.07	2.1556	F	F	6.96	263.96	143	459.00624318316	63.633877044685	0.1560462887121	90	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2021-05-17 04:00:01	FORECAST	2021	236	-49	38.95	37.47	38.21	139.19160276073	0.0031	0.0831	2.09	2.1731	F	F	6.95	257.95	143	459.20281645797	63.917176015027	0.15583808399449	90	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L