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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, May 24, 2021

[ Sunday, May 23, 2021 | Index | Today | Tuesday, May 25, 2021 ]

DAY 236 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/25/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 40.64°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.68°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.16°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.194
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 241

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.71 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.96 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.33 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.29 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 136 in
SWE DAY: 143
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.15 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 62.40 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -49

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-05-25 04:00:07OBSERVATION2021236-4940.6431.6799636.15998136.202155416670.710000000000040.960000000000042.333.29TF8.64240.64143458.14565297795 62.4004254303730.1936121755921690 1123126DRYL
2021-05-24 12:00:03FORECAST2021236-4843.5938.1540.87136.381993333330.3090.5592.332.889FF11.59243.59144458.739293251562.5637792339640.27157153649576902123127.5DRYL
2021-05-24 08:00:03FORECAST2021236-4839.6433.0736.355136.567454807660.41150.66152.332.9915FF7.64239.64144458.8048325460262.6578082342630.17063286095699901123126DRYL
2021-05-24 04:00:08FORECAST2021236-4842.7832.9637.87136.864606833330.48120.73122.333.0612FF10.78242.78144458.9097772600362.8085062366670.24872289517471901123126DRYL
2021-05-24 00:00:06FORECAST2021236-4944.6434.4739.555138.1640920.6710.7612.333.091FF12.64239.64143458.8403610462563.3952618569080.30266464166978902123127.5DRYL
2021-05-23 20:00:03FORECAST2021236-4944.0535.0839.565138.163053333330.62820.78822.333.1182FF12.05246.05143458.8399941767863.3947345869120.28499654489433902123127.5DRYL
2021-05-23 16:00:03FORECAST2021236-4944.1434.8139.475138.19640.60530.76532.333.0953FF12.14246.14143458.8517721346363.4116630426260.2876596872633902123127.5DRYL
2021-05-23 12:00:06FORECAST2021236-4943.8334.7639.295137.745837333330.58790.74792.333.0779FF11.83245.83143458.6925501944263.1829894050930.27853654495023902123127.5DRYL
2021-05-23 08:00:03FORECAST2021236-4943.9134.5739.24137.5727080.5770.7272.333.057FF11.91246.91143458.631320464463.0951527299030.28087737663502902123127.5DRYL
2021-05-23 04:00:08FORECAST2021236-4943.9834.4739.225137.185880250.54820.68822.333.0182FF11.98248.98143458.4944158236262.8989600244740.28293336544641902123127.5DRYL
2021-05-23 00:00:06FORECAST2021236-4943.3834.5638.97138.270729333330.58570.63572.332.9657FF11.38233.38143458.8780214763463.449398704570.26554905554062902123127.5DRYL
2021-05-22 20:00:06FORECAST2021236-4942.9134.3638.635139.3736120.5910.6712.333.001FF10.91249.91143459.2669218276864.0096897672460.25231981398526902123127.5DRYL
2021-05-22 16:00:03FORECAST2021236-4944.0135.1339.57139.196054666670.68490.74492.333.0749FF12.01252.01143459.2043848148163.9194386518560.28381670770282902123127.5DRYL
2021-05-22 12:00:06FORECAST2021236-4943.935.1939.545138.105618666670.63390.69392.333.0239FF11.9251.9143458.8197060596563.3655793618260.28058425390122902123127.5DRYL
2021-05-22 08:00:06FORECAST2021236-4944.1535.3539.75137.803366666670.68660.75662.333.0866FF12.15251.15143458.7128903282263.2121806206260.28795631566469902123127.5DRYL
2021-05-22 04:00:08FORECAST2021236-4944.6835.2139.945137.576220333330.70580.78582.333.1158FF12.68252.68143458.6325629202463.0969345283560.30388003005787902123127.5DRYL
2021-05-22 00:00:06FORECAST2021236-4945.1535.540.325136.625426666670.54410.71412.333.0441FF13.15241.15143458.2958233914962.6148624104130.31832042788069902123127.5DRYL
2021-05-21 20:00:06FORECAST2021236-4944.9835.4440.21137.480341333330.59220.74222.363.1022FF12.98258.98143458.5986426206563.0482979224910.31306385418183902123127.5DRYL
2021-05-21 16:00:06FORECAST2021236-4945.4233.9939.705137.420317333330.33490.44492.362.8049FF13.42260.42143458.5774029829163.0178522398080.32674439680623902122125DRYL
2021-05-21 12:00:06FORECAST2021236-4949.0334.541.765136.428022485280.18670.27672.362.6367FF17.03263.03143458.2258073812862.514840752750.44630739679122902122125DRYL
2021-05-21 08:00:06FORECAST2021236-4942.9533.138.025136.64563788040.07530.15532.372.5253FF10.95252.95143458.3029899949562.6251044103560.25343204172782902122125DRYL
2021-05-21 04:00:04FORECAST2021236-4949.0132.9440.975136.25209350.05740.16742.362.5274FF17.01264.01143458.1633786768862.4257195097580.4456199406102902122125DRYL
2021-05-20 23:59:55FORECAST2021236-4949.6431.8440.74135.393839900140.06150.18152.272.4515FF17.64271.64143457.858425580261.9912103699340.46734265653763902122125DRYL
2021-05-20 20:00:06FORECAST2021236-4949.1531.7540.45135.392210318160.04880.13882.272.4088FF17.15271.15143457.8578459275761.9903857716440.45043545196998902122125DRYL
2021-05-20 16:00:06FORECAST2021236-4948.7533.341.025135.352442359050.04220.19222.282.4722FF16.75272.75143457.8436994688461.9702629418080.4366986249537902122125DRYL
2021-05-20 12:00:06FORECAST2021236-4948.5134.5641.535135.264466669520.04860.17862.32.4786FF16.51272.51143457.8123992358161.9257500173240.42849193548935902122125DRYL
2021-05-20 08:00:15FORECAST2021236-4943.9334.7939.36135.923454563390.03950.18952.372.5595FF11.93258.93143458.0466858270162.2592878889180.28146406530402902122125DRYL
2021-05-20 04:00:08FORECAST2021236-4943.9134.7939.35136.058754045160.03830.15832.382.5383FF11.91262.91143458.09473965562.3277995121020.28087737663502902122125DRYL
2021-05-20 00:00:06FORECAST2021236-4949.0736.1942.63135.423029502430.0550.2351.982.215FF17.07257.07143457.8688081002762.0059811076040.44768279134174902122125DRYL
2021-05-19 20:00:06FORECAST2021236-4948.1633.7740.965136.345833679820.05770.25772.232.4877FF16.16266.16143458.1966460137162.4732036900380.41658000357762902122125DRYL
2021-05-19 16:00:06FORECAST2021236-4948.3636.4442.4135.449940924380.06710.25712.152.4071FF16.36272.36143457.8783796069162.0195994683090.42337817824851902122125DRYL
2021-05-19 12:00:06FORECAST2021236-4947.4634.7741.115135.8488478780.14250.40252.212.6125FF15.46269.46143458.0201809755362.2215138903970.39299485828279902122125DRYL
2021-05-19 08:00:02FORECAST2021236-4947.4934.8541.17136.365307396310.14250.41252.272.6825FF15.49255.49143458.2035560233362.4830687672060.39399829772626902122125DRYL
2021-05-19 03:59:53FORECAST2021236-4949.0434.6541.845136.493266932640.14190.36192.252.6119FF17.04263.04143458.2489523958162.5478965809630.44665118553813902122125DRYL
2021-05-18 23:59:53FORECAST2021236-4948.3135.341.805137.303256247190.01410.15411.952.1041FF16.31269.31143458.5359713171662.9584819683160.42167641183348902122125DRYL
2021-05-18 20:00:06FORECAST2021236-4944.835.2840.04136.588025366130.01410.16412.112.2741FF12.8268.8143458.2825604619962.5959099932370.30753917148785902122125DRYL
2021-05-18 16:00:06FORECAST2021236-4944.3635.1139.735135.717999131810.03250.17251.892.0625FF12.36273.36143457.9736833777862.1552719630590.29421857800849902122125DRYL
2021-05-18 12:00:06FORECAST2021236-4951.2934.7343.01135.497653763750.0030.0231.841.863FF19.29283.29143457.8953478845662.0437453076930.52453163187463903121123DRYL
2021-05-18 08:00:06FORECAST2021236-4951.7634.9743.365135.448251443290.00290.02291.921.9429FF19.76293.76143457.8777787333762.0187445041730.54078084562247903121123DRYL
2021-05-18 04:00:08FORECAST2021236-4952.3635.8244.09135.681121197180.00620.03622.022.0562FF20.36285.36143457.9605758722762.1366043984550.56142234983923903121123DRYL
2021-05-18 00:00:07FORECAST2021236-4947.4133.9140.66138.162084428770.06630.17632.012.1863FF15.41263.41143458.8396519472463.3942427316020.39132404083267902122125DRYL
2021-05-17 20:00:06FORECAST2021236-4948.2533.4240.835139.019865638930.03480.17482.142.3148FF16.25283.25143459.1423018443663.8299011115540.41963622374251902122125DRYL
2021-05-17 16:00:06FORECAST2021236-4947.3633.4740.415139.050917582390.01570.15572.092.2457FF15.36281.36143459.1532455011363.8456800978650.38965522570407902122125DRYL
2021-05-17 11:59:57FORECAST2021236-4941.5936.6139.1137.903647062470.00680.04682.062.1068FF9.59280.59143458.7483384691563.2630689587450.21710138433318901121122DRYL
2021-05-17 08:00:07FORECAST2021236-4938.9637.4838.22138.634012041730.00560.08562.072.1556FF6.96263.96143459.0062431831663.6338770446850.1560462887121901121122DRYL
2021-05-17 04:00:01FORECAST2021236-4938.9537.4738.21139.191602760730.00310.08312.092.1731FF6.95257.95143459.2028164579763.9171760150270.15583808399449901121122DRYL