Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, May 23, 2021

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DAY 235 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/24/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.80°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.76°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.28°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.177 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 8 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 252 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.16 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.25 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.48 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.73 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 137 in SWE DAY: 142 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.07 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 62.98 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -50 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 4.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-05-24 04:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	235	-50	39.79994	32.75996	36.27995	137.49644416667	0.15999999999997	0.24999999999997	2.48	2.73	F	F	7.79994	251.79994	142	458.07400959894	62.983547485021	0.17720487227081	92	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-24 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	235	-49	34.82	34.82	34.82	138.984584	0.0023	0.0923	2.48	2.5723	F	F	2.82	246.82	143	459.1298664657	63.81197349271	0.087199895156627	92	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-23 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	235	-49	41.56	34.08	37.82	138.55009333333	0.0723	0.1623	2.48	2.6423	F	F	9.56	253.56	143	458.97663433458	63.591255524875	0.2196240127	92	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-23 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	235	-49	42.62	35.42	39.02	138.36963866667	0.0643	0.1543	2.48	2.6343	F	F	10.62	254.62	143	458.91294354031	63.499618177129	0.24775434299143	92	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-23 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	235	-49	44.62	35.62	40.12	137.98510691667	0.0527	0.1427	2.48	2.6227	F	F	12.62	256.62	143	458.77712708686	63.304410932001	0.30565050066205	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-23 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	44.76	35.14	39.95	139.046504	0.0522	0.0522	2.48	2.5322	F	F	12.76	241.76	142	458.62344346139	63.769986465747	0.30991792748263	92	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-05-22 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	44.21	35	39.605	140.10445066667	0.0604	0.0804	2.48	2.5604	F	F	12.21	259.21	142	458.99720286482	64.307550964912	0.29330550500065	92	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-05-22 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	44.6	35.6	40.1	139.99571866667	0.0438	0.0638	2.48	2.5438	F	F	12.6	259.6	142	458.95883549242	64.252272013178	0.30504299718081	92	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-05-22 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	44.91	36.44	40.675	138.897848	0.0354	0.0554	2.48	2.5354	F	F	12.91	259.91	142	458.57084462041	63.694503473317	0.31451872460454	92	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-05-22 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	44.45	36.67	40.56	138.629708	0.0518	0.0718	2.48	2.5518	F	F	12.45	259.45	142	458.47591861008	63.558382721948	0.3005039079892	92	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-05-22 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	44.31	36.52	40.415	138.398735	0.0622	0.0822	2.48	2.5622	F	F	12.31	260.31	142	458.39409848786	63.441163362185	0.29629513603399	92	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-05-22 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	41.3	37	39.15	137.48691866667	0.1017	0.1717	2.48	2.6517	F	F	9.3	248.3	142	458.07062650033	62.97871896924	0.21301471985019	92	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-21 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	45.67	37.11	41.39	138.37080666667	0.0712	0.1812	2.48	2.6612	F	F	13.67	265.67	142	458.38420187185	63.426991776264	0.33826175723473	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-21 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	44.96	36.42	40.69	138.23403066667	0.0979	0.1379	2.48	2.6179	F	F	12.96	266.96	142	458.33572412296	63.357594544042	0.31605878911385	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-21 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	45.19	36.52	40.855	137.43591181862	0.0791	0.1191	2.48	2.5991	F	F	13.19	266.19	142	458.05250939751	62.952864289853	0.32318390198291	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-21 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	44.39	36.2	40.295	137.47044854707	0.0739	0.1239	2.48	2.6039	F	F	12.39	262.39	142	458.06477674145	62.97037032226	0.29869684484561	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-21 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	44.71	36.33	40.52	137.23079083333	0.0764	0.1364	2.48	2.6164	F	F	12.71	266.71	142	457.97962884966	62.848906652595	0.30839086673289	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-20 23:59:55	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	45.43	36.64	41.035	136.3519825668	0.085	0.155	2.38	2.535	F	F	13.43	274.43	142	457.66695353257	62.403796469475	0.33068851068409	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-20 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	44.04	35.29	39.665	136.34111431816	0.0747	0.1347	2.38	2.5147	F	F	12.04	274.04	142	457.66308229659	62.398294622601	0.28825544344395	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-20 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	45.67	35.69	40.68	136.38504102571	0.0791	0.1991	2.38	2.5791	F	F	13.67	275.67	142	457.67872819476	62.420532121439	0.33826175723473	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-20 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	47.95	37.83	42.89	136.29843200285	0.0913	0.2013	2.38	2.5813	F	F	15.95	275.95	142	457.64787795613	62.376688174853	0.41308898229998	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-20 08:00:15	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	42	37.53	39.765	136.85535723005	0.1092	0.1992	2.47	2.6692	F	F	10	267	142	457.8461369556	62.658696629458	0.23107252529053	92	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-20 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	47.37	37.54	42.455	136.99016471183	0.099	0.169	2.48	2.649	F	F	15.37	271.37	142	457.89408473003	62.726986087738	0.39362867789632	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-20 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	44.95	36.25	40.6	136.64663350243	0.1174	0.2174	2.09	2.3074	F	F	12.95	259.95	142	457.77186655632	62.552984477043	0.31575051982752	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-19 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	43.87	35.38	39.625	137.34967767982	0.1148	0.2848	2.3	2.5848	F	F	11.87	269.87	142	458.02187458769	62.909156844927	0.28324672470323	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-19 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	45.51	36.99	41.25	136.54874092438	0.1487	0.2987	2.19	2.4887	F	F	13.51	275.51	142	457.73701976346	62.50341372318	0.33320543004476	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-19 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	45.43	36.56	40.995	136.77697854466	0.2003	0.3703	2.25	2.6203	F	F	13.43	274.43	142	457.81825199632	62.618997230655	0.33068851068409	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-19 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	40.33	36.76	38.545	137.29660872965	0.1903	0.3803	2.31	2.6903	F	F	8.33	260.33	142	458.00301842628	62.88226121787	0.18940085896381	92	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-19 03:59:53	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	40.31	36.28	38.295	137.51050426597	0.189	0.319	2.3	2.619	F	F	8.31	266.31	142	458.07900306674	62.990674705361	0.18893153078822	92	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-18 23:59:53	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	42.15	36.94	39.545	138.32131358053	0.1261	0.1961	2.04	2.2361	F	F	10.15	273.15	142	458.36666189814	63.401878775272	0.23505011460907	92	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-18 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	43.43	36.81	40.12	137.5140240328	0.1356	0.2656	2.14	2.4056	F	F	11.43	276.43	142	458.08025308991	62.992458932355	0.27048012752106	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-18 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	44.38	37.71	41.045	136.51629646515	0.1298	0.2598	1.92	2.1798	F	F	12.38	281.38	142	457.72546860677	62.48698577197	0.29839614812429	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-18 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	49.35	37.03	43.19	136.69441643041	0.0212	0.1212	1.89	2.0112	F	F	17.35	284.35	142	457.78887268487	62.577182799996	0.46085873981783	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-18 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	50.12	37	43.56	136.66201544329	0.0213	0.0513	2.04	2.0913	F	F	18.12	294.12	142	457.77734127373	62.56077408274	0.48742102831383	92	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-05-18 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	50.63	38.05	44.34	136.93375319718	0.0275	0.0575	2.14	2.1975	F	F	18.63	284.63	142	457.87402251057	62.698408393862	0.5050523637823	92	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-18 00:00:07	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	43.37	38.72	41.045	138.9654657621	0.1123	0.1523	2.12	2.2723	F	F	11.37	268.37	142	458.59477222481	63.728836118287	0.26876173885902	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-17 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	46.17	38.3	42.235	139.74982963893	0.1392	0.1692	2.26	2.4292	F	F	14.17	287.17	142	458.87203155425	64.127288235777	0.35424802745227	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-17 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	46.21	38.3	42.255	139.49125758239	0.1392	0.1492	2.23	2.3792	F	F	14.21	286.21	142	458.78069174357	63.99589564583	0.35553854650874	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-17 11:59:57	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	49.8	37.59	43.695	138.27805906247	0.0402	0.0602	2.19	2.2502	F	F	17.8	290.8	142	458.35133101986	63.379932422127	0.47636858815013	92	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-05-17 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	46.89	37.66	42.275	138.9084387084	0.0767	0.1167	2.18	2.2967	F	F	14.89	276.89	142	458.57459257991	63.699880686616	0.37771985183796	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-17 04:00:00	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	46.92	37.65	42.285	139.3677934274	0.0767	0.1167	2.2	2.3167	F	F	14.92	270.92	142	458.73705723255	63.933171429878	0.37870841235281	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-17 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	51.68	35.69	43.685	140.2051335014	0.1286	0.2286	2.21	2.4386	F	F	19.68	261.68	142	459.03272054659	64.358743865744	0.54128292310288	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-16 20:00:07	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	52.58	36.5	44.54	142.39426581168	0.164	0.314	2.17	2.484	F	F	20.58	274.58	142	459.80273484508	65.473272846469	0.57207824783957	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-16 16:00:10	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	52.63	36.54	44.585	142.54473758546	0.1482	0.2982	2.11	2.4082	F	F	20.63	278.63	142	459.85550530077	65.549982330328	0.57377806165052	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-16 12:00:00	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	48.84	38.77	43.805	139.70646118348	0.0027	0.1827	2.09	2.2727	F	F	16.84	291.84	142	458.85671596294	64.105247977454	0.44335387088024	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-16 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	41.53	38.82	40.175	140.00953962764	0.0004	0.0504	2.05	2.1004	F	F	9.53	276.53	142	458.96371296986	64.259298158704	0.21885545532206	92	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2021-05-16 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	235	-50	40.27	38.8	39.535	140.11813053552	0.0004	0.0504	2.01	2.0604	F	F	8.27	279.27	142	459.00202921797	64.314506246033	0.18799502151955	92	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L