Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, May 21, 2021

[ Thursday, May 20, 2021 | Index | Today | Saturday, May 22, 2021 ]

DAY 233 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/22/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 42.53°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.30°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.92°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.268 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 11 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 259 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.54 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.07 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.61 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 141 in SWE DAY: 140 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.18 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 64.51 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -52 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 7.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-05-22 04:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	233	-52	42.53	29.3	35.915	140.79368166667	0	0.54	2.07	2.61	F	F	10.53	258.53	140	458.18233042058	64.509177174526	0.26799583767861	93	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-22 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	233	-51	33.84	33.84	33.84	139.98994133333	0.0002	0.5402	2.07	2.6102	F	F	1.84	249.84	141	458.42780798078	64.175281944798	0.065571268647605	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-21 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	233	-51	48.4	35.48	41.94	140.25108115195	0.0302	0.5702	2.07	2.6402	F	F	16.4	264.4	141	458.52028853347	64.307966196923	0.49287403281349	93	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-21 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	233	-51	44.09	31.8	37.945	140.2757778804	0.0411	0.5811	2.07	2.6511	F	F	12.09	260.09	141	458.52903150537	64.320516575164	0.32306292673799	93	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-21 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	233	-51	48.19	32.05	40.12	140.0232735	0.0325	0.5725	2.07	2.6425	F	F	16.19	264.19	141	458.43961571322	64.192215694247	0.4843000211677	93	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-20 23:59:51	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	48.35	30.91	39.63	139.1383425668	0.0362	0.4762	2.07	2.5462	F	F	16.35	271.35	140	457.59364219161	63.668820943647	0.49083215438772	93	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-20 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	48.9	31.94	40.42	139.09702498483	0.0433	0.4833	2.07	2.5533	F	F	16.9	271.9	140	457.57891673555	63.647866013694	0.51329425761437	93	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-20 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	48.68	30.81	39.745	139.12056102571	0.053	0.493	2.07	2.563	F	F	16.68	271.68	140	457.5873050958	63.659802603172	0.5043104864864	93	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-05-20 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	48.14	32.57	40.355	139.02318266952	0.073	0.513	2.07	2.583	F	F	16.14	271.14	140	457.55259571771	63.610418095376	0.48225951086243	93	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-20 08:00:14	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	48.21	32.29	40.25	139.44453456339	0.0471	0.5771	2.07	2.6471	F	F	16.21	268.21	140	457.70271990666	63.82414274578	0.48511634342631	93	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-20 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	44.28	32.2	38.24	139.69594604516	0.0526	0.5926	2.07	2.6626	F	F	12.28	267.28	140	457.79221923021	63.951717157478	0.33007837694974	93	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-20 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	45.05	32.92	38.985	139.13686416909	0.0415	0.1915	2.07	2.2615	F	F	13.05	260.05	140	457.59311532198	63.668071131266	0.35910296058381	93	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-19 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	48.51	32.26	40.385	139.72007901316	0.0751	0.4351	2.07	2.5051	F	F	16.51	270.51	140	457.80080725713	63.963964962252	0.49736674730845	93	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-19 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	48.05	32.86	40.455	139.24276892438	0.1083	0.3583	2.07	2.4283	F	F	16.05	272.05	140	457.6308525285	63.721787051296	0.47858779899504	93	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-19 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	47.83	32.74	40.285	139.40988921133	0.1091	0.4191	2.07	2.4891	F	F	15.83	271.83	140	457.69038211613	63.806565463901	0.46962077920353	93	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-19 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	47.26	32.39	39.825	139.65071939631	0.1147	0.4847	2.07	2.5547	F	F	15.26	266.26	140	457.77612332799	63.92876494521	0.44647070317081	93	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-19 03:59:53	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	47.38	32.35	39.865	139.83471226597	0.0954	0.4554	2.07	2.5254	F	F	15.38	270.38	140	457.84159378547	64.022147530385	0.45133194636445	93	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-18 23:59:53	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	46.94	32.66	39.8	141.05109358053	0.0587	0.4187	1.81	2.2287	F	F	14.94	271.94	140	458.27365164474	64.639999723632	0.43354859839177	93	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-18 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	47.05	33.35	40.2	140.2841480328	0.1227	0.5827	1.81	2.3927	F	F	15.05	272.05	140	458.00138859316	64.25033459663	0.43798328401688	93	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-18 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	49.83	33.49	41.66	139.38656979848	0.1227	0.3627	1.81	2.1727	F	F	17.83	275.83	140	457.68207707102	63.794734781173	0.55114273017614	93	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-18 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	50.06	33.3	41.68	140.16323509708	0.0973	0.3073	1.81	2.1173	F	F	18.06	273.06	140	457.95841649314	64.188933195615	0.56044509379871	93	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-18 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	52.15	33.22	42.685	140.25017144329	0.0304	0.2604	1.94	2.2004	F	F	20.15	281.15	140	457.98931474684	64.23307991244	0.64284950442529	93	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-18 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	50.89	33.93	42.41	140.30400786385	0.0342	0.4042	1.9	2.3042	F	F	18.89	275.89	140	458.00844545665	64.260420533058	0.59370199420128	93	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-18 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	50.77	32.56	41.665	141.95496709544	0.0354	0.3054	1.98	2.2854	F	F	18.77	263.77	140	458.59384352763	65.099673968134	0.58892944882342	93	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-17 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	50.64	30.95	40.795	142.59572163893	0.0335	0.2635	2.16	2.4235	F	F	18.64	280.64	140	458.82038220375	65.425823502995	0.58374432073752	93	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-17 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	49.93	33.05	41.49	142.38039091573	0.0133	0.2433	2.13	2.3733	F	F	17.93	279.93	140	458.74429318628	65.316191794222	0.5551909992868	93	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-17 11:59:57	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	50.06	33.29	41.675	141.59085906247	0.0241	0.1841	2.16	2.3441	F	F	18.06	280.06	140	458.46494880752	64.91444595169	0.56044509379871	93	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-17 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	44.84	31.8	38.32	141.91822137507	0.0369	0.1969	2.15	2.3469	F	F	12.84	268.84	140	458.58084090196	65.080977297488	0.35109753767213	93	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-17 04:00:00	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	44.85	31.82	38.335	142.2769894274	0.0369	0.2169	2.15	2.3669	F	F	12.85	267.85	140	458.70774056214	65.263556354224	0.35147728774125	93	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-17 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	47.29	30.78	39.035	142.48872416806	0.0355	0.2155	2.16	2.3755	F	F	15.29	259.29	140	458.78257890193	65.37134433827	0.44768528919521	93	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-16 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	42.28	30.79	36.535	144.63401381168	0.0388	0.2288	2.11	2.3388	F	F	10.28	271.28	140	459.53857310499	66.464908329468	0.25963024541922	93	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-16 16:00:10	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	42.3	28.64	35.47	144.43893758546	0.0403	0.2203	2.06	2.2803	F	F	10.3	275.3	140	459.46999891382	66.365358495505	0.26029450433416	93	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-16 12:00:00	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	51.7	31.99	41.845	141.66429318348	0.0071	0.1671	2.06	2.2271	F	F	19.7	287.7	140	458.49095417982	64.951796954902	0.6255202127999	93	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-16 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	49.59	31.34	40.465	141.72284762764	0.0286	0.2286	1.98	2.2086	F	F	17.59	279.59	140	458.51168670677	64.981581910637	0.54140592947417	93	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-16 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	48.98	31.34	40.16	141.69045320219	0.0286	0.2086	1.96	2.1686	F	F	16.98	283.98	140	458.50021710792	64.965103555323	0.5165596512811	93	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-16 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	47.52	30.08	38.8	142.78924735051	0.1028	0.3528	1.89	2.2428	F	F	15.52	268.52	140	458.88873072811	65.524376478296	0.4570125841546	93	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-15 20:00:07	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	48.26	31.9	40.08	144.34151540671	0.0801	0.3201	1.94	2.2601	F	F	16.26	290.26	140	459.43573984838	66.31565092172	0.4871574145078	93	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-15 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	48.31	31.9	40.105	144.1346008829	0.0801	0.3301	1.82	2.1501	F	F	16.31	290.31	140	459.36294904519	66.210095321019	0.4891988220385	93	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-15 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	41.61	31	36.305	144.90834304873	0.2671	0.6571	1.9	2.5571	F	F	9.61	281.61	140	459.6349492489	66.604938902945	0.23789286561283	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-15 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	41.66	31.03	36.345	144.97338642718	0.2671	0.7071	1.96	2.6671	F	F	9.66	273.66	140	459.65779015617	66.638146436574	0.23947989657035	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-15 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	41.54	30.63	36.085	145.26833502066	0.4796	0.9296	1.93	2.8596	F	F	9.54	272.54	140	459.7613182085	66.788761203052	0.23568072862166	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-15 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	38.23	29.31	33.77	146.9431490286	0.4436	0.8436	1.65	2.4936	F	F	6.23	267.23	140	460.34771581061	67.644943009335	0.14472238840531	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-14 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	33.04	26.38	29.71	149.66382182744	0.384	0.774	1.58	2.354	F	F	1.04	257.04	140	461.29499523473	69.0391719767	0.055718521068832	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-14 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	33.91	25.94	29.925	148.73895077278	0.1554	0.6754	1.56	2.2354	F	F	1.91	258.91	140	460.97370928677	68.564745853151	0.066493722827292	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-14 12:00:07	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	31.67	28.41	30.04	146.28862127867	0.0307	0.5907	1.74	2.3307	F	F	-0.33	259.67	140	460.11884487516	67.310151441122	0.04158853117663	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-14 08:00:07	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	31.13	28.48	29.805	147.51377164829	0.0204	0.5804	1.87	2.4504	F	F	-0.87	256.13	140	460.54693713156	67.937015717343	0.036883178753282	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-14 03:55:12	FORECAST	2021	233	-52	28.89	27.98	28.435	146.81091155807	0.0186	0.4886	1.86	2.3486	F	F	-3.11	252.89	140	460.30150655263	67.577283768546	0.021768147269316	93	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L