Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, May 20, 2021

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DAY 232 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/21/2021 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 34.17°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.17°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.17°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.065 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 87 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 2 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 254 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.19 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.02 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.74 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.76 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 141 in SWE DAY: 139 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 457.66 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 64.45 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -53 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 4 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 8.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-05-21 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2021	232	-53	34.17008	24.17	29.17004	140.82977083333	0.18999999999994	1.0199999999999	1.74	2.7599999999999	F	F	2.17008	254.17008	139	457.66324883464	64.452610452221	0.065401162690695	87	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-20 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	232	-52	40.54	30.23	35.385	139.89031592546	0.0901	0.9201	1.74	2.6601	F	F	8.54	260.54	140	457.86137329888	64.050372160845	0.20078774962566	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-20 08:00:10	FORECAST	2021	232	-52	37.9	25.87	31.885	140.33264923005	0.1809	1.0109	1.74	2.7509	F	F	5.9	257.9	140	458.018622067	64.27496663136	0.13195777260842	87	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-20 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	232	-52	40.64	27.66	34.15	140.46401271183	0.1879	1.0179	1.74	2.7579	F	F	8.64	260.64	140	458.06528755558	64.341688374054	0.20375888406184	87	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-20 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	42.42	27.53	34.975	139.94231153998	0.1537	0.6337	1.74	2.3737	F	F	10.42	253.42	139	457.34677808636	64.002165300768	0.26087017503906	87	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-19 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	39.34	26.3	32.82	140.47858750109	0.274	0.844	1.74	2.584	F	F	7.34	260.34	139	457.53810105035	64.274306163486	0.16719217729852	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-19 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	41.02	27.84	34.43	140.0823292794	0.1582	0.7282	1.74	2.4682	F	F	9.02	262.02	139	457.39675625737	64.073203021376	0.21528537948495	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-19 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	40.73	28.39	34.56	140.23701144141	0.219	0.789	1.74	2.529	F	F	8.73	261.73	139	457.45194811202	64.151694081281	0.20645513827263	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-19 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	39.83	28	33.915	140.39745589543	0.2654	0.8454	1.74	2.5854	F	F	7.83	256.83	139	457.50917309276	64.233123951045	0.18044822249373	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-19 03:59:53	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	39.13	28	33.565	140.54078858489	0.2159	0.8359	1.74	2.5759	F	F	7.13	261.13	139	457.56027518073	64.305881899018	0.16170779246141	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-18 23:59:53	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	40.2	27.65	33.925	141.7285199336	0.2155	0.5755	1.74	2.3155	F	F	8.2	263.2	139	457.98301934707	64.909255486784	0.19088167428833	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-18 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	39.83	27.48	33.655	141.06319270781	0.2828	0.6828	1.74	2.4228	F	F	7.83	262.83	139	457.7463693778	64.57116431484	0.18044822249373	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-18 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	40.24	28.25	34.245	140.15963946554	0.1278	0.4578	1.74	2.1978	F	F	8.24	264.24	139	457.42434387171	64.11243111982	0.192031319868	87	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-18 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	36.7	27.97	32.335	141.03566574951	0.087	0.427	1.74	2.167	F	F	4.7	260.7	139	457.73656970723	64.557181846556	0.1067875609748	87	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-18 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	42.04	28.04	35.04	141.31810159658	0.1062	0.5762	1.74	2.3162	F	F	10.04	267.04	139	457.8370850787	64.700667703836	0.24802687664255	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-18 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	41.37	27.83	34.6	141.41604735146	0.2105	0.6805	1.74	2.4205	F	F	9.37	263.37	139	457.87192590718	64.750437954994	0.22622846155596	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-18 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	42.17	27.26	34.715	142.9811871738	0.1212	0.7612	1.64	2.4012	F	F	10.17	251.17	139	458.42749618125	65.54650763711	0.25238238396455	87	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-17 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	43.99	27.92	35.955	143.63334963893	0.1004	0.7004	1.84	2.5404	F	F	11.99	267.99	139	458.65834011187	65.878633730101	0.31731499449614	87	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-17 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	44.05	27.41	35.73	143.43627758239	0.0848	0.6748	1.84	2.5148	F	F	12.05	268.05	139	458.58862343825	65.778245087616	0.31957134054732	87	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-17 11:59:57	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	44.06	27.42	35.74	142.65259506247	0.0543	0.6343	1.84	2.4743	F	F	12.06	268.06	139	458.31104049582	65.379259272511	0.31994805090577	87	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-17 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	41.4	27.37	34.385	142.7222587084	0.0589	0.6489	1.81	2.4589	F	F	9.4	262.4	139	458.33573797136	65.414711770053	0.22718081602026	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-17 04:00:00	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	44.02	25.81	34.915	143.08250276073	0.0626	0.6726	1.81	2.4826	F	F	12.02	261.02	139	458.46338363939	65.598088355277	0.31844232641129	87	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-17 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	43.06	27.15	35.105	143.20384269654	0.0744	0.7244	1.77	2.4944	F	F	11.06	250.06	139	458.50635186197	65.659871487408	0.28324769351186	87	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-16 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	43.1	27.43	35.265	145.22155341253	0.0763	0.7063	1.74	2.4463	F	F	11.1	267.1	139	459.21891475146	66.688484156622	0.28467625302892	87	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-16 16:00:10	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	42.99	26.69	34.84	145.01470441353	0.0712	0.6812	1.71	2.3912	F	F	10.99	270.99	139	459.14603305634	66.582926266312	0.28075601090539	87	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-16 12:00:00	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	43.85	26.74	35.295	142.66359985014	0.0516	0.6716	1.7	2.3716	F	F	11.85	273.85	139	458.31494225432	65.384859527111	0.31207660984671	87	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-16 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	38.7	27.51	33.105	142.57650867104	0.0438	0.6038	1.73	2.3338	F	F	6.7	267.7	139	458.28406100555	65.340541397757	0.15084702864496	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-16 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	44.46	27.53	35.995	142.52564288888	0.0438	0.5738	1.72	2.2938	F	F	12.46	273.46	139	458.26602158843	65.314659341021	0.33516513190305	87	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-16 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	41.48	26.86	34.17	143.38876399594	0.0743	0.6343	1.66	2.2943	F	F	9.48	259.48	139	458.57180969853	65.754044996056	0.22973142445103	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-15 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	42.15	27.07	34.61	145.05769466665	0.0847	0.6447	1.69	2.3347	F	F	10.15	280.15	139	459.16118350227	66.60486275925	0.25170969586728	87	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-15 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	42.2	26.92	34.56	144.85155365394	0.075	0.545	1.67	2.215	F	F	10.2	280.2	139	459.08852109024	66.499685544611	0.25339318749732	87	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-15 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	39.04	24.69	31.865	144.10355868572	0.1273	0.7673	1.67	2.4373	F	F	7.04	278.04	139	458.82454147035	66.118249238219	0.15939355623658	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-15 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	38.96	24.75	31.855	144.13386028145	0.1273	0.8273	1.72	2.5473	F	F	6.96	269.96	139	458.83524514757	66.133695116304	0.15735470469307	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-15 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	39.35	28.02	33.685	143.76892963903	0.1397	0.8197	1.71	2.5297	F	F	7.35	269.35	139	458.70628295231	65.947711318751	0.16745628782936	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-15 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	40	29.4	34.7	144.49170125674	0.1964	0.5464	1.65	2.1964	F	F	8	267	139	458.96158591376	66.316140360172	0.1851968826578	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-14 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	34.95	27.05	31	146.70908124409	0.1964	0.4864	1.63	2.1164	F	F	2.95	261.95	139	459.74190772571	67.448312891846	0.076566408041838	87	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-14 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	35.01	26.79	30.9	147.4667818607	0.2461	0.6161	1.61	2.2261	F	F	3.01	263.01	139	460.00754550398	67.83583236711	0.077481833736446	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-14 12:00:07	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	33.52	25.24	29.38	146.0559870108	0.2055	0.8355	1.61	2.4455	F	F	1.52	265.52	139	459.51253268434	67.114556505044	0.057093715778727	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-14 08:00:07	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	33.52	25.24	29.38	147.35879020289	0.2055	0.9655	1.61	2.5755	F	F	1.52	262.52	139	459.96971657971	67.780580965152	0.057093715778727	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-14 03:55:12	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	32.68	25.22	28.95	146.65149243339	0.2399	0.8699	1.61	2.4799	F	F	0.68	261.68	139	459.72169709261	67.418872982643	0.047612255764758	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-14 00:00:07	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	32.36	26.98	29.67	146.58992544249	0.2985	0.5785	1.6	2.1785	F	F	0.36	265.36	139	459.70008705828	67.38740148778	0.044349216482016	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-13 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	32.39	26.98	29.685	146.7940862317	0.242	0.522	1.61	2.132	F	F	0.39	277.39	139	459.77173458797	67.491771654004	0.044647284984654	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-13 15:54:43	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	36.72	28.74	32.73	146.23900447171	0.1744	0.6044	1.61	2.2144	F	F	4.72	278.72	139	459.57684913411	67.208060895619	0.10717657739377	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-13 11:59:26	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	28.9	26.5	27.7	151.2955100948	0.0946	1.0446	1.61	2.6546	F	F	-3.1	248.9	139	461.34204594214	69.798980168995	0.019290381147593	87	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-13 08:00:07	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	29.05	26.48	27.765	151.21019776315	0.0768	1.0268	1.61	2.6368	F	F	-2.95	248.05	139	461.31245153903	69.755147027819	0.020049112388876	87	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-13 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	232	-53	27.46	26.48	26.97	149.59232802476	0.0637	0.9037	1.62	2.5237	F	F	-4.54	248.46	139	460.75000528759	68.92466592839	0.01316615029546	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L