Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, May 19, 2021

[ Tuesday, May 18, 2021 | Index | Today | Thursday, May 20, 2021 ]

DAY 231 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/20/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.83°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.40°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 30.61°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.121 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 5 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 262 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.35 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.97 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.61 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.58 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 140 in SWE DAY: 138 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.88 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 64.03 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -54 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-05-20 04:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	231	-54	36.82994	24.40004	30.61499	140.14407666667	0.35000000000002	0.97000000000002	1.61	2.58	F	F	4.82994	261.82994	138	456.88394667307	64.029578850321	0.12146703664348	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-20 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	231	-53	28.2	28.2	28.2	140.01606091243	0.0039	0.6239	1.61	2.2339	F	F	-3.8	253.2	139	457.37310452876	64.039580463406	0.019584141801228	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-19 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	231	-53	38.43	27.55	32.99	140.10719651578	0.0937	0.7137	1.61	2.3237	F	F	6.43	263.43	139	457.40563055263	64.08582056726	0.15812591322267	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-19 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	231	-53	34.28	26.35	30.315	140.14968363832	0.1038	0.7238	1.61	2.3338	F	F	2.28	259.28	139	457.42079150634	64.107379219203	0.076123756231646	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-19 03:59:53	FORECAST	2021	231	-53	38.91	27.02	32.965	140.10392079889	0.1382	0.7582	1.61	2.3682	F	F	6.91	263.91	139	457.40446158953	64.0841584596	0.17040682875071	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-18 23:59:50	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	38.46	26.53	32.495	141.32832242735	0.1429	0.5029	1.61	2.1129	F	F	6.46	265.46	138	457.30748342268	64.630499465602	0.15887605916016	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-18 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	38.2	25.65	31.925	140.50755827236	0.1841	0.5441	1.61	2.1541	F	F	6.2	265.2	138	457.01407871545	64.2139322964	0.1524519431476	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-18 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	38.77	26.79	32.78	140.20665409343	0.1089	0.4689	1.61	2.0789	F	F	6.77	265.77	138	456.90635892309	64.061311818619	0.16676353162539	93	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-18 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	38.6	27.41	33.005	140.9176681841	0.1221	0.4821	1.61	2.0921	F	F	6.6	265.6	138	457.16076023502	64.422028317589	0.16240744646726	93	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-18 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	38.87	25.54	32.205	141.39173706465	0.1245	0.6145	1.61	2.2245	F	F	6.87	266.87	138	457.33012728253	64.662701108473	0.16936073508497	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-18 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	35.96	26.5	31.23	141.31561325902	0.1561	0.6061	1.61	2.2161	F	F	3.96	263.96	138	457.30294484197	64.624046095501	0.10424977093675	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-18 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	38.57	27.23	32.9	143.05215898085	0.1478	0.6778	1.61	2.2878	F	F	6.57	250.57	138	457.92172833073	65.506691881955	0.16164646333822	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-17 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	38.94	26.77	32.855	143.83236970978	0.1346	0.8446	1.61	2.4546	F	F	6.94	265.94	138	458.19885352107	65.90382690024	0.17119410217056	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-17 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	38.53	25.74	32.135	143.76246646627	0.149	0.829	1.61	2.439	F	F	6.53	265.53	138	458.17404678818	65.8682310371	0.16063543122344	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-17 11:59:57	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	39.22	27.34	33.28	143.01518964858	0.1057	0.8157	1.61	2.4257	F	F	7.22	266.22	138	457.90858345936	65.487882905154	0.17865356368865	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-17 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	38.43	26.63	32.53	142.90278862858	0.0987	0.7987	1.61	2.4087	F	F	6.43	263.43	138	457.86861040136	65.430701251849	0.15812591322267	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-17 04:00:00	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	38.31	26.65	32.48	143.38119037327	0.1183	0.8183	1.61	2.4283	F	F	6.31	259.31	138	458.03866486359	65.674129005124	0.1551485531421	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-17 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	38.51	27.19	32.85	143.33560362708	0.1053	0.8153	1.61	2.4253	F	F	6.51	248.51	138	458.02246933507	65.650927116907	0.16013146330121	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-16 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	39.44	27.87	33.655	145.34498279871	0.11	0.76	1.62	2.38	F	F	7.44	266.44	138	458.73456076656	66.67476684379	0.18465559040077	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-16 16:00:10	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	39.22	27.25	33.235	145.16982727852	0.1073	0.7073	1.62	2.3273	F	F	7.22	270.22	138	458.67263298085	66.585426907215	0.17865356368865	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-16 12:00:00	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	39.94	27.05	33.495	142.97366898846	0.1118	0.7118	1.62	2.3318	F	F	7.94	271.94	138	457.89381883931	65.466759286595	0.19875484547255	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-16 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	38.77	28.19	33.48	142.6809281825	0.1625	0.6825	1.62	2.3025	F	F	6.77	270.77	138	457.78967689946	65.317856012381	0.16676353162539	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-16 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	40.58	25.31	32.945	142.81643836365	0.1357	0.6357	1.62	2.2557	F	F	8.58	270.58	138	457.83789399409	65.386777368153	0.217717684324	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-16 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	39.75	27.33	33.54	143.47324386012	0.1756	0.6156	1.61	2.2256	F	F	7.75	259.75	138	458.07136283867	65.720984345888	0.19332249152441	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-15 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	41.83	26.92	34.375	145.14880586733	0.1563	0.6463	1.61	2.2563	F	F	9.83	279.83	138	458.66519882282	66.574705902034	0.25760814459215	93	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-05-15 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	40.23	28.72	34.475	144.98117064574	0.1665	0.5365	1.61	2.1465	F	F	8.23	280.23	138	458.60590093125	66.489220382058	0.20722123511102	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-15 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	40.22	28.25	34.235	143.79373774577	0.2558	0.7058	1.61	2.3158	F	F	8.22	281.22	138	458.18514464714	65.8841545284	0.20692579293249	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-15 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	35.2	28.27	31.735	143.8112949296	0.3075	0.8075	1.62	2.4275	F	F	3.2	273.2	138	458.19137512669	65.893094982545	0.090714118428747	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-15 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	35.18	28.9	32.04	143.42874926565	0.3085	0.7785	1.62	2.3985	F	F	3.18	272.18	138	458.05555903463	65.698335926515	0.09037636347674	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-15 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	39.78	29.99	34.885	143.65165192751	0.1968	0.3968	1.61	2.0068	F	F	7.78	268.78	138	458.13471273845	65.811808290212	0.19417416939707	93	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-14 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	36.19	28.33	32.26	145.48011364294	0.1892	0.2992	1.63	1.9292	F	F	4.19	269.19	138	458.78231865003	66.743703854579	0.10862016415463	93	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-14 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	36.11	28.69	32.4	145.86397715199	0.2694	0.3694	1.62	1.9894	F	F	4.11	270.11	138	458.91789413672	66.939589225	0.10708536857263	93	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-14 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	34.76	26.95	30.855	144.62333968031	0.3513	0.6313	1.62	2.2513	F	F	2.76	273.76	138	458.47924027508	66.306798902672	0.083496942734231	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-14 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	34.77	26.95	30.86	145.87149294043	0.3513	0.7613	1.62	2.3813	F	F	2.77	270.77	138	458.92054729406	66.943425374827	0.083656046260126	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-14 03:55:12	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	34.99	27.26	31.125	144.8518856752	0.229	0.629	1.62	2.249	F	F	2.99	270.99	138	458.5601514909	66.42330263896	0.087213995345747	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-14 00:00:07	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	43.14	31.02	37.08	144.15702399643	0.1902	0.2802	1.61	1.8902	F	F	11.14	275.14	138	458.31400665882	66.069183255815	0.30314904084264	93	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-13 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	43.06	31.01	37.035	144.88146796568	0.1902	0.2802	1.62	1.9002	F	F	11.06	287.06	138	458.57062095692	66.438384730173	0.30026742083954	93	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-13 15:54:43	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	40.31	30.54	35.425	145.12309059149	0.3206	0.4306	1.62	2.0506	F	F	8.31	284.31	138	458.65610415406	66.561591353491	0.20959372145811	93	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-13 11:59:26	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	31.27	23.3	27.285	150.52210341163	0.6462	0.9462	1.62	2.5662	F	F	-0.73	262.27	138	460.55259083522	69.323344704194	0.040610041841334	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-13 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	31.34	23.17	27.255	150.55896620341	0.6462	0.9462	1.62	2.5662	F	F	-0.66	261.34	138	460.5654502759	69.342258062548	0.041247601674358	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-13 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	30.5	24.62	27.56	148.9582191076	0.5353	0.8353	1.63	2.4653	F	F	-1.5	263.5	138	460.00592534184	68.521663417866	0.034109947178265	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-12 23:55:13	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	32.3	25.81	29.055	156.12884726623	0.4055	1.4055	1.65	3.0555	T	F	0.3	252.3	138	462.49471124329	72.208766133142	0.050833673858785	93	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-12 19:55:03	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	32.38	25.76	29.07	156.79848965753	0.3841	1.3841	1.64	3.0241	F	F	0.38	253.38	138	462.72482521659	72.554553721005	0.051706393867527	93	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-12 15:59:26	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	29.76	24.83	27.295	155.32360382223	0.5339	1.2339	1.63	2.8639	F	F	-2.24	257.76	138	462.21748090631	71.793284884001	0.028692169721905	93	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-12 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	30.51	26.33	28.42	155.28213187504	0.3976	1.1976	1.63	2.8276	F	F	-1.49	257.51	138	462.2031875271	71.771896318649	0.034188540829136	93	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-12 08:00:07	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	30.61	26.33	28.47	155.58069490718	0.3506	1.1506	1.63	2.7806	F	F	-1.39	246.61	138	462.30605420922	71.925897173667	0.03498266977589	93	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-05-12 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	231	-54	29.31	24.02	26.665	155.22307032272	0.3207	1.0807	1.62	2.7007	F	F	-2.69	260.31	138	462.18282926056	71.741437808267	0.025761266315167	93	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L