MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, May 18, 2021

[ Monday, May 17, 2021 | Index | Today | Wednesday, May 19, 2021 ]

DAY 230 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/19/2021 08:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.59°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.48°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.53°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.077
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 263

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.48 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.62 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.61 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.23 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 140 in
SWE DAY: 137
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.22 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 63.78 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -55

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-05-19 08:00:02OBSERVATION2021230-5533.5899425.4800429.53499139.802870.480000000000020.620000000000021.612.23FF1.58994262.58994137456.22433410363 63.7814712715260.07716583645138191 1123126DRYL
2021-05-19 03:59:53OBSERVATION2021230-5533.5899425.4800429.53499139.802870.480000000000020.620000000000021.612.23FF1.58994262.58994137456.22433410363 63.7814712715260.07716583645138191 1123126DRYL
2021-05-18 12:00:03FORECAST2021230-5436.1628.2232.19140.639725176830.22350.36351.611.9735FF4.16265.16138457.0613667361164.2809850067120.11724736857875911122124DRYL
2021-05-18 08:00:03FORECAST2021230-5437.1727.6432.405141.105233019850.35460.49461.612.1046FF5.17266.17138457.2277945059664.5172344869160.13646122780867911123126DRYL
2021-05-18 04:00:08FORECAST2021230-5436.9928.6432.815140.90085398750.31460.45461.612.0646FF4.99265.99138457.1547494068664.413494595870.13288840558402911122124DRYL
2021-05-18 00:00:06FORECAST2021230-5536.4927.1931.84142.703333926770.48790.52791.612.1379FF4.49250.49137457.2642486839765.2531327727220.1233028833942911123126DRYL
2021-05-17 20:00:03FORECAST2021230-5537.1825.931.54143.547468168220.47050.71051.612.3205FF5.18265.18137457.56546290365.6823637209460.13666162086322911123126DRYL
2021-05-17 16:00:02FORECAST2021230-5537.4428.4232.93143.378884592360.4440.6841.612.294FF5.44265.44137457.5053584663665.5966079919360.14194231909135911123126DRYL
2021-05-17 11:59:57FORECAST2021230-5537.2528.432.825142.803634975820.46570.70571.612.3157FF5.25265.25137457.3000731403865.3041127191540.13806998909007911123126DRYL
2021-05-17 08:00:06FORECAST2021230-5537.0228.4332.725142.719191309740.48750.69751.612.3075FF5.02263.02137457.2699130619165.2611922024710.13347937327671911123126DRYL
2021-05-17 04:00:00FORECAST2021230-5536.8828.3832.63143.11829581130.49060.70061.612.3106FF4.88258.88137457.4124011237365.4640833317850.13073690511554911123126DRYL
2021-05-17 00:00:06FORECAST2021230-5537.9128.6233.265143.130049600610.54120.71121.612.3212FF5.91247.91137457.4165952656865.470059968520.15183373194627911123126DRYL
2021-05-16 20:00:06FORECAST2021230-5537.827.9232.86145.170627161920.51670.65671.612.2667FF5.8264.8137458.1428464355366.5088843467940.14947875573532911123126DRYL
2021-05-16 16:00:09FORECAST2021230-5537.9828.533.24144.987000239180.50260.61261.612.2226FF5.98268.98137458.077646764666.415303881020.15334508517406911123126DRYL
2021-05-16 12:00:00FORECAST2021230-5538.228.5933.395142.742873882710.50520.60521.612.2152FF6.2270.2137457.2783722325165.2732290168740.15815955448357911123126DRYL
2021-05-16 08:00:06FORECAST2021230-5538.5129.3133.91142.143599319780.39520.52521.612.1352FF6.51269.51137457.0641609923864.9687449635350.16510972041188911123126DRYL
2021-05-16 04:00:08FORECAST2021230-5538.6829.4534.065142.476104134940.39160.51161.612.1216FF6.68267.68137457.1830554087765.1376606111490.16900357342896911123126DRYL
2021-05-16 00:00:06FORECAST2021230-554029.9234.96143.017988346010.38480.44481.612.0548FF8258137457.3766029980165.4130816773060.20121296363471911122124DRYL
2021-05-15 20:00:06FORECAST2021230-5541.2131.436.305144.949249192770.3980.4881.612.098FF9.21276.21137458.0642388838266.3960675082650.23374376978461911122124DRYL
2021-05-15 16:00:06FORECAST2021230-5542.7631.6437.2144.594972253270.29560.36561.611.9756FF10.76277.76137457.9383491634266.2155828909940.27935510962661912122125DRYL
2021-05-15 12:00:06FORECAST2021230-5542.8631.0136.935143.030069621750.37620.44621.612.0562FF10.86278.86137457.380915094765.4192241296570.28243955215793912122125DRYL
2021-05-15 08:00:05FORECAST2021230-554231.3836.69142.484076458130.38810.49811.622.1181FF10276137457.1859048559665.1417114230750.25646218191016912123127.5DRYL
2021-05-15 04:00:08FORECAST2021230-5542.1531.3936.77142.080245393370.37480.47481.622.0948FF10.15275.15137457.0414960102364.9365679080880.26090198737841912122125DRYL
2021-05-15 00:00:05FORECAST2021230-5543.5534.6739.11143.189978549860.15380.20381.611.8138FF11.55266.55137457.437977956265.5005342514390.30415598704279912122125DRYL
2021-05-14 20:00:06FORECAST2021230-5543.1432.9638.05144.798757082380.10480.11481.631.7448FF11.14271.14137458.0107764523166.3193911606290.29116197416472912122125DRYL
2021-05-14 16:00:06FORECAST2021230-5543.1632.9238.04144.687583732020.10490.10491.621.7249FF11.16272.16137457.971268912266.2627563175950.2917897822054912122125DRYL
2021-05-14 12:00:06FORECAST2021230-5548.1534.2341.19142.785714666670.28420.28421.621.9042FF16.15277.15137457.2936732255765.2950039440580.4634772246087912122125DRYL
2021-05-14 08:00:06FORECAST2021230-5545.0333.139.065143.985135089210.41050.41051.622.0305FF13.03274.03137457.7213824743665.9050750887890.35305285565811912122125DRYL
2021-05-14 03:55:12FORECAST2021230-5545.0733.0539.06143.553380597350.40410.40411.622.0241FF13.07274.07137457.5675703709165.6853715784620.35441341508432912122125DRYL
2021-05-14 00:00:07FORECAST2021230-5554.0836.3345.205143.976593333330.09240.09241.611.7024FF22.08270.08137457.7183411176865.9007274603090.67393068885227913122126DRYL
2021-05-13 20:00:06FORECAST2021230-5554.0837.1445.61144.772960.08920.08921.621.7092FF22.08282.08137458.0016099680966.3062487598460.67393068885227913121123DRYL
2021-05-13 15:54:43FORECAST2021230-5554.0737.1445.605144.577198666670.10710.10711.621.7271FF22.07282.07137457.9320304646666.2065301443190.6736009219234913122126DRYL
2021-05-13 11:59:26FORECAST2021230-5541.9729.6435.805145.814282919030.3020.3021.621.922FF9.97268.97137458.3711467233366.8370600702360.25557896154863912122125DRYL
2021-05-13 08:00:06FORECAST2021230-5541.9829.6335.805145.678006709190.3020.3021.621.922FF9.98267.98137458.3228416268666.7675579974950.25587319195111912122125DRYL
2021-05-13 04:00:07FORECAST2021230-554430.8937.445144.822813801440.30040.30041.631.9304FF12271137458.0193239915766.3316472758930.31870718683917912122125DRYL
2021-05-12 23:55:13FORECAST2021230-5533.9824.2229.1153.018716142340.94640.99641.652.6464FF1.98257.98137460.9012018705970.52651017870.082472157148245911124128DRYL
2021-05-12 19:55:02FORECAST2021230-5533.9825.2329.605153.736899960590.94640.99641.642.6364FF1.98258.98137461.1508854792170.8959075476530.082472157148245911124128DRYL
2021-05-12 15:59:26FORECAST2021230-5540.9427.8134.375150.947088946930.70280.70281.632.3328FF8.94265.94137460.1784234250869.4625934122020.22624255295961911123126DRYL
2021-05-12 12:00:06FORECAST2021230-5537.7925.6931.74151.890114109710.80460.80461.632.4346FF5.79264.79137460.5079109363869.946599140550.14926587913267911123126DRYL
2021-05-12 08:00:07FORECAST2021230-5538.3525.7332.04152.428211441980.80460.80461.632.4346FF6.35254.35137460.6955656711670.2230010945040.16149827155157911123126DRYL
2021-05-12 04:00:08FORECAST2021230-5541.1522.0331.59151.868980936480.75810.75811.622.3781FF9.15269.15137460.5005357701669.9357470881190.23206503576955911123126DRYL
2021-05-12 00:00:06FORECAST2021230-5538.224.631.4148.845449511650.4630.4631.642.103FF6.2253.2137459.441277287168.3857434420030.15815955448357911122124DRYL
2021-05-11 20:00:07FORECAST2021230-5538.3225.5331.925148.810444100990.34410.34411.651.9941FF6.32265.32137459.4289658564868.3678284419590.160826887653911122124DRYL
2021-05-11 16:00:06FORECAST2021230-5542.9937.0240.005146.412545333330.21590.21591.631.8459FF10.99276.99137458.5830118751667.1423060152680.28647362103608912122125DRYL
2021-05-11 12:00:06FORECAST2021230-5534.3128.131.205148.00961554990.24550.59551.652.2455FF2.31251.31137459.1470146381767.958173117480.087171383713154911123126DRYL
2021-05-11 08:00:06FORECAST2021230-5534.3133.133.705147.598101333330.17090.52091.652.1709FF2.31236.31137459.0019077969867.7478100992130.087171383713154911123126DRYL
2021-05-11 04:00:07FORECAST2021230-5537.8634.9536.405147.5103320.10090.44091.632.0709FF5.86259.86137458.9709392230367.7029556231420.15076025742629911122124DRYL