Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, May 17, 2021

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DAY 229 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/18/2021 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 49.93°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.76°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.34°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.474 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 87 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 18 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 273 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.14 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.14 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.71 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.85 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 140 in SWE DAY: 136 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 455.74 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 63.79 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -56 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 5.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-05-18 04:00:08	OBSERVATION	2021	229	-56	49.92998	32.75996	41.34497	139.96691166667	0.13999999999999	0.13999999999999	1.71	1.85	F	F	17.92998	272.92998	136	455.74418619021	63.789106251082	0.47400872707872	87	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-18 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	229	-55	34.77	34.77	34.77	141.10887735912	0.0388	0.0388	1.71	1.7488	F	F	2.77	257.77	137	456.69353028497	64.443511355685	0.068344676457001	87	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2021-05-17 11:59:53	FORECAST	2021	229	-55	49.43	34.91	42.17	141.42971557181	0.2366	0.2366	1.71	1.9466	F	F	17.43	272.43	137	456.8085566651	64.606304239916	0.455373075098	87	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-17 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	229	-55	46.71	35.24	40.975	141.1867320548	0.2065	0.2065	1.71	1.9165	F	F	14.71	269.71	137	456.72145123447	64.483009159119	0.35671652192123	87	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-17 04:00:00	FORECAST	2021	229	-55	43.39	35.64	39.515	141.55483172469	0.2063	0.2063	1.71	1.9163	F	F	11.39	266.39	137	456.85338770041	64.669804418788	0.24866158656798	87	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-17 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	47.39	36.28	41.835	141.54143866667	0.1698	0.1698	1.71	1.8798	F	F	15.39	254.39	136	456.31157440084	64.586996720946	0.38076931933065	87	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-16 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	45.87	36.11	40.99	143.59359066667	0.1307	0.1407	1.71	1.8507	F	F	13.87	270.87	136	457.04767913945	65.6291173535	0.32778132838982	87	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-16 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	50.11	36.12	43.115	143.489232	0.1044	0.1144	1.71	1.8244	F	F	18.11	275.11	136	457.01033832326	65.576062462065	0.48073468321471	87	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-16 12:00:00	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	51.41	36.21	43.81	141.76433466667	0.0906	0.1006	1.71	1.8106	F	F	19.41	276.41	136	456.39171282731	64.700067516343	0.52935047533467	87	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-16 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	51.7	35.65	43.675	141.37893466667	0.1209	0.1309	1.71	1.8409	F	F	19.7	274.7	136	456.25312027669	64.504580083062	0.54016157649134	87	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-16 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	51.86	35.47	43.665	141.68697825	0.1122	0.1222	1.71	1.8322	F	F	19.86	272.86	136	456.36390579754	64.660822794821	0.54611415067106	87	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-16 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	52.31	36.74	44.525	142.634976	0.0581	0.0581	1.71	1.7681	F	F	20.31	262.31	136	456.70430259299	65.142007239447	0.56279606339259	87	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-15 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	52.17	36.61	44.39	144.71227466667	0.0871	0.0871	1.71	1.7971	F	F	20.17	279.17	136	457.44733692905	66.198244667212	0.55761666522995	87	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-15 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	51.91	36.42	44.165	144.65766266667	0.0721	0.0721	1.71	1.7821	F	F	19.91	278.91	136	457.42785275959	66.170444018834	0.54797227158725	87	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-15 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	52.56	36.63	44.595	142.896412	0.0724	0.0724	1.71	1.7824	F	F	20.56	279.56	136	456.79803211052	65.274799797254	0.57201771315138	87	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-15 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	53.16	36.64	44.9	142.561032	0.1065	0.1165	1.71	1.8265	F	F	21.16	278.16	136	456.67778104285	65.104455756938	0.5939806462973	87	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-15 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	53.19	36.63	44.91	142.14099408333	0.103	0.113	1.71	1.823	F	F	21.19	277.19	136	456.52703117585	64.891206037248	0.59507167320223	87	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-15 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	54.08	39.21	46.645	143.942916	0.0492	0.0492	1.71	1.7592	F	F	22.08	267.08	136	457.17260005214	65.806757166807	0.62706818380559	87	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-14 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	52.33	41	46.665	145.33990533333	0.0059	0.0159	1.72	1.7359	F	F	20.33	272.33	136	457.67106564187	66.517869354196	0.56353512104396	87	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-14 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	52.21	40.96	46.585	145.2801	0.0048	0.0048	1.72	1.7248	F	F	20.21	273.21	136	457.64976247095	66.487403256756	0.55909753831909	87	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-14 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	52.07	39.43	45.75	143.94278933333	0.0012	0.0012	1.72	1.7212	F	F	20.07	273.07	136	457.17255477544	65.806692741023	0.55391100331109	87	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-14 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	51.26	38.96	45.11	143.56548	0.0008	0.0008	1.72	1.7208	F	F	19.26	273.26	136	457.03762177069	65.614825547568	0.5237495174674	87	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-14 03:55:12	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	51.23	38.96	45.095	143.097211	0.0008	0.0008	1.72	1.7208	F	F	19.23	273.23	136	456.8699799217	65.376819916421	0.522628726966	87	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-14 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	48.59	36.99	42.79	145.368024	0.0034	0.0034	1.71	1.7134	F	F	16.59	259.59	136	457.68108063291	66.532194313791	0.42430431925817	87	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-05-13 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	49.72	38.34	44.03	146.27602	0.0033	0.0033	1.72	1.7233	F	F	17.72	271.72	136	458.00409627614	66.995016346971	0.46617288158731	87	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-05-13 15:54:43	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	49.76	38.34	44.05	146.08452266667	0.0034	0.0034	1.72	1.7234	F	F	17.76	271.76	136	457.93603390564	66.897366924972	0.4676646486632	87	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-05-13 11:59:25	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	49.64	37.54	43.59	144.91290666667	0.0008	0.0008	1.72	1.7208	F	F	17.64	270.64	136	457.51889411323	66.300392800867	0.46319079356635	87	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-05-13 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	48.9	37.54	43.22	144.736224	0.0016	0.0016	1.72	1.7216	F	F	16.9	269.9	136	457.45588058821	66.210436802932	0.43572604301239	87	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-05-13 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	48.91	37.13	43.02	144.50307325	0.0015	0.0015	1.73	1.7315	F	F	16.91	270.91	136	457.37268454066	66.091758536728	0.43609543311241	87	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-05-12 23:55:13	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	45.71	34.14	39.925	146.96194266667	0.047	0.047	1.75	1.797	F	F	13.71	267.71	136	458.24761681769	67.344959989899	0.32237873758277	87	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-05-12 19:55:02	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	45.72	34.14	39.93	147.82571333333	0.0473	0.0473	1.74	1.7873	F	F	13.72	268.72	136	458.55367513798	67.786024128894	0.32271531869965	87	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-05-12 15:59:26	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	51.9	38.83	45.365	147.6352	0.0017	0.0017	1.73	1.7317	F	F	19.9	268.9	136	458.48622859507	67.688706055879	0.54760073012815	87	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-12 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	53.31	38.5	45.905	146.3191	0.0029	0.0029	1.73	1.7329	F	F	21.31	271.31	136	458.01940329611	67.016986872824	0.59942831622916	87	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-12 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	52.69	38.5	45.595	146.40984666667	0.0029	0.0029	1.73	1.7329	F	F	20.69	259.69	136	458.05164157318	67.063270608144	0.57679780223015	87	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-12 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	53.3	40.14	46.72	145.57997833333	0.0024	0.0024	1.72	1.7224	F	F	21.3	272.3	136	457.75654913557	66.640188505097	0.59906572651602	87	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-12 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	52.35	37.25	44.8	146.38517466667	0.0026	0.0026	1.74	1.7426	F	F	20.35	259.35	136	458.04287743828	67.050686618625	0.56427395698761	87	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-11 20:00:07	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	52.66	37.18	44.92	147.63084666667	0.0029	0.0029	1.75	1.7529	F	F	20.66	270.66	136	458.48468702342	67.686482528969	0.57569568074183	87	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-11 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	55.1	39.8	47.45	147.09445733333	0.0029	0.0029	1.73	1.7329	F	F	23.1	278.1	136	458.29461411998	67.412597562768	0.66267746932816	87	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-11 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	44.81	33.65	39.23	147.28508	0.3097	0.3497	1.75	2.0997	F	F	12.81	260.81	136	458.36219211403	67.509912134491	0.29270926032231	87	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-11 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	44.26	33.62	38.94	147.671628	0.3097	0.3497	1.75	2.0997	F	F	12.26	246.26	136	458.49912755307	67.707312602341	0.27522531222303	87	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-11 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	44.62	34.44	39.53	147.63426133333	0.2997	0.3397	1.73	2.0697	F	F	12.62	265.62	136	458.4858962025	67.688226617608	0.28661133578119	87	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-11 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	43.51	30.37	36.94	150.24861640753	0.1046	0.1146	1.76	1.8746	F	F	11.51	242.51	136	459.40860325436	69.025507004682	0.25224271195108	87	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-10 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	43.48	32.74	38.11	151.46024933333	0.0525	0.0625	1.78	1.8425	F	F	11.48	252.48	136	459.83416194994	69.646596820923	0.2513448921559	87	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-05-10 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	43.47	36.19	39.83	151.37688266667	0.0356	0.0456	1.76	1.8056	F	F	11.47	254.47	136	459.80492322909	69.603835913205	0.25104599419098	87	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-05-10 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	39.97	36.4	38.185	152.07984133333	0.1996	0.2196	1.73	1.9496	F	F	7.97	239.97	136	460.05127406492	69.964524764992	0.15873807891385	87	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-10 07:54:57	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	39.9	35.97	37.935	151.93385416667	0.1294	0.1494	1.73	1.8794	F	F	7.9	243.9	136	460.00014925866	69.889595594111	0.15715268215166	87	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-10 03:55:14	FORECAST	2021	229	-56	36.2	34.5	35.35	152.4051355	0.0793	0.0993	1.73	1.8293	F	F	4.2	234.2	136	460.16512414582	70.131528097818	0.087903941042538	87	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L