MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, May 16, 2021

[ Saturday, May 15, 2021 | Index | Today | Monday, May 17, 2021 ]

DAY 228 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/17/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 60.52°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 44.35°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 52.43°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.832
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 94 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 29
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 282

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.71 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.71 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 142 in
SWE DAY: 135
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.12 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 65.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -57

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-05-17 04:00:00OBSERVATION2021228-5760.5199244.3499852.43495142.49643416667001.711.71FF28.51992281.51992135456.11685403662 64.9950252635360.831730678295994 4121123.5DRYL
2021-05-17 00:00:03FORECAST2021228-5644.7844.7844.78142.930136001.711.71FF12.78265.78136456.810118240765.2919323263190.30951415536641942121122.5DRYL
2021-05-16 11:59:56FORECAST2021228-5663.4544.9154.18143.341413333330.0120.0121.711.722FF31.45284.45136456.9574300417165.5009238553470.89116524423505945121124DRYL
2021-05-16 08:00:02FORECAST2021228-5660.8545.5853.215142.947266666670.0060.0061.711.716FF28.85281.85136456.8162571950265.3006353349250.83930999562343944121123.5DRYL
2021-05-16 04:00:08FORECAST2021228-5658.5545.2851.915143.276356916670.00960.00961.711.7196FF26.55279.55136456.9341383022365.4678586867990.78184889389126944121123.5DRYL
2021-05-16 00:00:06FORECAST2021228-5762.1145.5253.815144.283449333330.00470.00471.711.7147FF30.11269.11135456.7589520127265.9027571102740.86616712898433945121124DRYL
2021-05-15 20:00:03FORECAST2021228-5762.0344.9553.49146.365558666670.00350.00351.711.7135FF30.03286.03135457.5034142887966.9627428242860.86455934040452945121124DRYL
2021-05-15 16:00:03FORECAST2021228-5762.2945.3153.8146.316085333330.00230.00231.711.7123FF30.29286.29135457.4857706270566.9375270538530.86973668114943945121124DRYL
2021-05-15 12:00:06FORECAST2021228-5761.9645.3853.67144.5936480.00060.00061.711.7106FF29.96285.96135456.8701138973366.0605164305910.86314174041005945121124DRYL
2021-05-15 08:00:05FORECAST2021228-5762.3445.7354.035144.286640.00060.01061.711.7206FF30.34284.34135456.7600958565465.9043795172190.87071645977461945121124DRYL
2021-05-15 04:00:08FORECAST2021228-5762.4845.9254.2143.8936074166700.011.711.72FF30.48283.48135456.6191251464465.7045731327640.87343270303155945121124DRYL
2021-05-15 00:00:04FORECAST2021228-5762.6346.0454.335145.7780760.00170.00171.711.7117FF30.63271.63135457.2937572781366.6634041028170.87629870482383945121124DRYL
2021-05-14 20:00:05FORECAST2021228-5759.3345.8152.57147.077922666670.00080.02081.711.7308FF27.33279.33135457.7572188243967.3259808303630.80254210141729944121123.5DRYL
2021-05-14 16:00:06FORECAST2021228-5760.1945.9653.075147.0618506666700.011.711.72FF28.19280.19135457.7514976756867.3177823936240.82392960706858944121123.5DRYL
2021-05-14 12:00:06FORECAST2021228-5760.2246.1253.17145.713005333330.00020.01021.711.7202FF28.22280.22135457.2705160289866.6302611409070.82464826497673944121123.5DRYL
2021-05-14 08:00:06FORECAST2021228-5760.0346.3453.185145.30896400.011.711.72FF28.03281.03135457.1261188312766.4245227447120.82006541553174944121123.5DRYL
2021-05-14 03:55:12FORECAST2021228-5760.0446.3253.18144.8065830.00040.01041.711.7204FF28.04281.04135456.9463699786866.1688424508670.82030847297584944121123.5DRYL
2021-05-14 00:00:06FORECAST2021228-5759.9646.3153.135146.846429333330.00040.00041.711.7104FF27.96269.96135457.6747916097867.2079089437730.81835825072217944121123.5DRYL
2021-05-13 20:00:05FORECAST2021228-5762.064754.53147.867858666670.0010.0011.721.721FF30.06281.06135458.0381246432767.7291166786970.86516380092637945121124DRYL
2021-05-13 15:54:43FORECAST2021228-5761.8747.0654.465147.7185640.0010.0011.721.721FF29.87280.87135457.9850777805767.6528980231740.86130430094488945121124DRYL
2021-05-13 11:59:25FORECAST2021228-5761.344.8853.09146.5128360.00320.00321.721.7232FF29.3280.3135457.5559246427967.0378161480180.84927895224955945121124DRYL
2021-05-13 08:00:06FORECAST2021228-5761.4144.653.005146.2838920.00370.00371.721.7237FF29.41280.41135457.4742883362866.9211193877610.85165195996935945121124DRYL
2021-05-13 04:00:07FORECAST2021228-5761.3644.652.98146.078457250.0010.0111.721.731FF29.36281.36135457.4009944801666.8164316182770.85057642712586945121124DRYL
2021-05-12 23:55:13FORECAST2021228-5762.0844.9953.535148.0780720.00040.01041.741.7504FF30.08281.08135458.1127828207467.836457638650.86556574788503945121124DRYL
2021-05-12 19:55:02FORECAST2021228-5762.2844.7853.53148.994814666670.00020.01021.731.7402FF30.28282.28135458.4379023709768.3048702999390.86954011239922945121124DRYL
2021-05-12 15:59:26FORECAST2021228-5762.2244.7953.505149.274380.00020.00021.731.7302FF30.22276.22135458.5368986886168.4478112588650.8683564050439945121124DRYL
2021-05-12 12:00:06FORECAST2021228-5763.5145.6754.59148.169020.00020.00021.731.7302FF31.51276.51135458.1450710454667.8829061946370.89220045905156945121124DRYL
2021-05-12 08:00:06FORECAST2021228-5757.8545.6751.76148.242054666670.00020.00021.731.7302FF25.85265.85135458.1709943057267.9202095845490.76225935309986944121123.5DRYL
2021-05-12 04:00:08FORECAST2021228-5762.9845.5654.27147.5078530.00080.00081.721.7208FF30.98277.98135457.9101744405367.5453466985780.88280898569753945121124DRYL
2021-05-12 00:00:06FORECAST2021228-5760.4446.5453.49148.2009280.00050.00051.741.7405FF28.44266.44135458.1563972091867.8992032355370.82986160505502944121123.5DRYL
2021-05-11 20:00:07FORECAST2021228-5760.4145.9953.2149.431894666670.00050.00051.751.7505FF28.41277.41135458.5926449366168.5283678130750.82915658828273944121123.5DRYL
2021-05-11 16:00:06FORECAST2021228-5765.346.0155.655149.192181333330.00050.00051.731.7305FF33.3282.3135458.5077987796968.4057786582870.91990781440187945121124DRYL
2021-05-11 12:00:06FORECAST2021228-5757.2343.6350.43148.375789333330.04010.04011.751.7901FF25.23275.23135458.2184502396867.9885242414090.74413383012912944121123.5DRYL
2021-05-11 08:00:06FORECAST2021228-5757.2443.650.42148.732817333330.04010.04011.751.7901FF25.24261.24135458.345063191368.1709525592670.74443178486031944121123.5DRYL
2021-05-11 04:00:07FORECAST2021228-5761.4942.8552.17148.6448840.04050.04051.731.7705FF29.49280.49135458.3138900219868.1260150179060.85336204647421945121124DRYL
2021-05-11 00:00:06FORECAST2021228-5759.7144.2551.98150.803282666670.01120.01121.761.7712FF27.71257.71135459.0770536352369.2303266851340.8121790741667944121123.5DRYL
2021-05-10 20:00:06FORECAST2021228-5759.7344.2551.99152.1810840.01120.01121.781.7912FF27.73267.73135459.5620314414869.9366481100070.81267812315202944121123.5DRYL
2021-05-10 16:00:06FORECAST2021228-5759.643.3851.49152.035725333330.01120.01121.761.7712FF27.6269.6135459.5109461098869.8620799904210.80941968593531944121123.5DRYL
2021-05-10 12:00:06FORECAST2021228-5754.2540.3647.305152.481641333330.02160.02161.731.7516FF22.25259.25135459.6676005067870.0908701930280.64804997910699943121123DRYL
2021-05-10 07:54:56FORECAST2021228-5754.0240.3647.19152.225172833330.02160.02161.731.7516FF22.02263.02135459.5775224395769.9592677836780.64011044073942943121123DRYL
2021-05-10 03:55:13FORECAST2021228-5750.8337.1143.97152.497194166670.02150.02151.731.7515FF18.83256.83135459.6730611588170.0988520607220.52521136094836943121123DRYL
2021-05-10 00:00:06FORECAST2021228-5749.5635.5342.545152.414309333330.07810.15811.611.7681FF17.56241.56135459.6439575267270.0563163256750.47830320302284942122125DRYL
2021-05-09 20:00:06FORECAST2021228-5750.7238.1944.455152.6160840.0050.0251.641.665FF18.72248.72135459.7147966522670.1598720219240.52115294988889943121123DRYL
2021-05-09 16:00:06FORECAST2021228-5750.7238.1944.455152.536762666670.00270.02271.631.6527FF18.72255.72135459.686952819670.1191596232060.52115294988889943121123DRYL
2021-05-09 12:00:07FORECAST2021228-5735.9431.6333.785154.134879721580.03220.19221.631.8222FF3.94227.94135460.2468524685170.9400932474690.093969024364754941122124DRYL
2021-05-09 07:55:15FORECAST2021228-5735.3631.6433.5154.825791249120.03030.19031.631.8203FF3.36219.36135460.4882102372971.2954515108780.08525914395889941122124DRYL
2021-05-09 04:00:08FORECAST2021228-5735.0531.9933.52154.894579819050.02740.19741.621.8174FF3.05230.05135460.5122171356471.3308463747640.080858415816993941122124DRYL