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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, May 13, 2021

[ Wednesday, May 12, 2021 | Index | Today | Friday, May 14, 2021 ]

DAY 225 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/14/2021 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 55.04°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.79°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 46.42°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.689
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 96 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 23
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 235

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.92 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.92 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 152 in
SWE DAY: 132
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 457.81 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 69.46 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -60

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-05-14 03:55:11OBSERVATION2021225-6055.0437.7900646.41503151.712295001.921.92FF23.04235.04132457.80924498219 69.4552912284660.6890461388615496 3121123DRYL
2021-05-14 00:00:03FORECAST2021225-5944.1544.1544.15153.933580.00080.00081.921.9208FF12.15224.15133459.1257657254670.6748727883610.30744071150618962121122.5DRYL
2021-05-13 11:59:22FORECAST2021225-5954.2543.8249.035153.737145333330.00640.00641.921.9264FF22.25234.25133459.0565078700570.574037066630.66307629324401963121123DRYL
2021-05-13 08:00:03FORECAST2021225-5954.8940.6547.77153.471082666670.00530.00531.921.9253FF22.89234.89133458.9626458404870.4374941606960.68418191490339963121123DRYL
2021-05-13 04:00:07FORECAST2021225-5955.0137.4646.235153.278166583330.00790.00791.921.9279FF23.01235.01133458.8945489023770.338515110840.68807589434067963121123DRYL
2021-05-12 23:55:10FORECAST2021225-6054.8237.6446.23155.143957333330.00760.02761.921.9476FF22.82233.82132459.0250288267471.2149594872280.68190092157913963121123DRYL
2021-05-12 19:55:01FORECAST2021225-6053.9640.3747.165156.141278666670.00160.02161.921.9416FF21.96232.96132459.3763811640571.7276155442210.65333597001315963121123DRYL
2021-05-12 15:59:23FORECAST2021225-6049.9639.5344.745156.2737360.00360.02361.921.9436FF17.96228.96132459.4229784366371.795745244540.51133124143965963121123DRYL
2021-05-12 12:00:06FORECAST2021225-6054.0540.8947.47155.088234666670.00280.02281.921.9428FF22.05233.05132459.0053716870171.1863327974560.65637005562843963121123DRYL
2021-05-12 08:00:06FORECAST2021225-6053.5640.7147.135154.914886666670.00180.02181.921.9418FF21.56229.56132458.9442023721571.0972890968050.63973427242045963121123DRYL
2021-05-12 04:00:08FORECAST2021225-6054.1940.747.445154.579150333330.00280.01281.921.9328FF22.19230.19132458.8256544568870.924879817080.66106973635512963121123DRYL
2021-05-12 00:00:06FORECAST2021225-6054.3140.7747.54155.4375920.00150.03151.921.9515FF22.31220.31132459.1285676155771.3658389685740.66507822281613963121123DRYL
2021-05-11 20:00:06FORECAST2021225-6054.2941.0747.68156.4844960.00280.04281.921.9628FF22.29230.29132459.4970895572471.9041704728320.66441143016287963121123DRYL
2021-05-11 16:00:06FORECAST2021225-6054.5840.9947.785156.449673333330.00130.02131.921.9413FF22.58230.58132459.4848473374671.8862542675620.67402832758374963121123DRYL
2021-05-11 12:00:05FORECAST2021225-6054.3340.447.365155.468297333330.00250.04251.921.9625FF22.33230.33132459.1393901921871.3816192318430.66574449583045963121123DRYL
2021-05-11 08:00:06FORECAST2021225-6052.7841.1246.95155.407617333330.00270.04271.921.9627FF20.78226.78132459.1180017596971.3504347283150.61271057642519963121123DRYL
2021-05-11 04:00:07FORECAST2021225-6052.9741.4947.23155.724545333330.0010.0211.921.941FF20.97229.97132459.2296759138771.5133324852610.61934948479348963121123DRYL
2021-05-11 00:00:06FORECAST2021225-6052.9741.6447.305157.125920.01090.05091.921.9709FF20.97214.97132459.7223943412272.2343041554670.61934948479348963121123DRYL
2021-05-10 20:00:06FORECAST2021225-6052.9639.9746.465158.278440.01610.05611.931.9861FF20.96225.96132460.1263040832772.8280736132660.61900092400384963121123DRYL
2021-05-10 16:00:06FORECAST2021225-6052.6240.9446.78158.200157333330.02160.04161.931.9716FF20.62226.62132460.0989067170772.7877194315350.60709415251186963121123DRYL
2021-05-10 12:00:05FORECAST2021225-6052.8140.4246.615157.703182666670.00260.01261.931.9426FF20.81225.81132459.9248484048272.5316123809240.61376107429656963121123DRYL
2021-05-10 07:54:56FORECAST2021225-6054.840.6647.73157.436710166670.00350.01351.931.9435FF22.8229.8132459.8314296713172.3943475186860.68124793597058963121123DRYL
2021-05-10 03:55:13FORECAST2021225-6055.341.2748.285157.468198166670.0010.0111.931.941FF23.3229.3132459.8424718877172.4105654886630.6973994146532963121123DRYL
2021-05-10 00:00:05FORECAST2021225-6055.1441.2248.18156.436737333330.00050.01051.811.8205FF23.14221.14132459.4802992951771.879598890680.69227078640145963121123DRYL
2021-05-09 20:00:06FORECAST2021225-6054.2239.2746.745156.476480.00110.02111.831.8511FF22.22226.22132459.4942715567271.9000461933590.66207359011093963121123DRYL
2021-05-09 16:00:06FORECAST2021225-6055.2941.3148.3156.1309320.00040.01041.831.8404FF23.29233.29132459.3727406416371.7222941317720.69707999868762963121123DRYL
2021-05-09 12:00:07FORECAST2021225-6055.3641.7648.56155.939380.00090.00091.841.8409FF23.36227.36132459.3053249017671.6237875958790.69931273497324964121123.5DRYL
2021-05-09 07:55:15FORECAST2021225-6051.3941.2746.33156.6127696380.00110.00111.841.8411FF19.39219.39132459.542175961871.9701729428520.56325553668595963121123DRYL
2021-05-09 04:00:08FORECAST2021225-6051.3941.2746.33156.467232218550.00090.00091.831.8309FF19.39230.39132459.4910204558871.8952882000060.56325553668595963121123DRYL
2021-05-09 00:00:07FORECAST2021225-6053.6741.8947.78154.020347094090.0020.0021.61.602FF21.67228.67132458.6281177073970.6380618763990.6434932708033963121123DRYL
2021-05-08 20:00:06FORECAST2021225-6054.2741.8948.08153.881761333330.00240.01241.691.7024FF22.27233.27132458.5790842844370.5669572003150.66374411969557963121123DRYL
2021-05-08 16:02:36FORECAST2021225-6054.0441.147.57154.121721061210.02170.02171.731.7517FF22.04236.04132458.6639741906270.6900810910350.656033427391963121123DRYL
2021-05-08 12:00:06FORECAST2021225-6056.9141.8849.395154.16354744780.00250.00251.731.7325FF24.91237.91132458.6787657040970.711545659920.7467317008021964121123.5DRYL
2021-05-08 08:02:35FORECAST2021225-6056.0242.0749.045154.757598147450.01240.02241.781.8024FF24.02221.02132458.8886766560971.0165094163590.71998907039208964121123.5DRYL
2021-05-08 04:00:08FORECAST2021225-6056.0542.0749.06154.847527299550.01240.01241.811.8224FF24.05232.05132458.9204260027771.0626931937840.72091230755383964121123.5DRYL
2021-05-07 23:55:03FORECAST2021225-6053.0638.6245.84154.776202704260.01450.01451.291.3045FF21.06234.06132458.8952455607971.0260635469370.62248214333871963121123DRYL
2021-05-07 20:00:06FORECAST2021225-6052.6538.8745.76153.96306451430.02270.02271.351.3727FF20.65236.65132458.6078524872770.6086703792640.60814897024667963121123DRYL
2021-05-07 15:55:18FORECAST2021225-6052.1938.8445.515153.977995089670.02270.02271.41.4227FF20.19235.19132458.6131348553570.6163310268150.59189226069954963121123DRYL
2021-05-07 12:00:07FORECAST2021225-6052.1237.7544.935155.978614755540.0080.0081.391.398FF20.12224.12132459.3191360431971.643962570730.5894037328949963121123DRYL
2021-05-07 08:00:07FORECAST2021225-6054.2839.1246.7157.002688628310.00640.00641.551.5564FF22.28220.28132459.6791369192872.1708604026690.66407783954173963121123DRYL
2021-05-07 03:55:07FORECAST2021225-6054.2839.1346.705157.489878188690.00640.00641.641.6464FF22.28221.28132459.8500741276272.4217321594190.66407783954173963121123DRYL
2021-05-07 00:00:06FORECAST2021225-6050.0937.343.695161.14827599450.00560.01561.571.5856FF18.09200.09132461.1269379461574.3098110646460.51607297551779963121123DRYL
2021-05-06 20:00:06FORECAST2021225-6048.1739.0143.59161.274716332520.00330.00331.841.8433FF16.17218.17132461.1708567191274.3751990981990.44616821801383962121122.5DRYL
2021-05-06 16:02:33FORECAST2021225-6049.2937.4343.36161.419414101840.00290.01291.771.7829FF17.29219.29132461.2210998667374.4500397118940.48688239345407962121122.5DRYL
2021-05-06 12:00:06FORECAST2021225-6045.4540.6743.06160.610217572370.00080.01081.681.6908FF13.45222.45132460.9398867359674.0316554964450.35042068050777962121122.5DRYL
2021-05-06 08:00:06FORECAST2021225-6040.8339.1339.98161.09071022390.00090.01091.711.7209FF8.83208.83132461.1069379293674.2800441202090.20986325211951961121122DRYL
2021-05-06 04:00:08FORECAST2021225-6040.8739.3740.12160.947112857080.00070.01071.681.6907FF8.87216.87132461.0570352955274.205798693260.21091939486939961121122DRYL