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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, May 11, 2021

[ Monday, May 10, 2021 | Index | Today | Wednesday, May 12, 2021 ]

DAY 223 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/12/2021 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 52.77°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.82°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.30°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.634
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 21
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 195

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.11 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.60 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.71 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 158 in
SWE DAY: 130
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.92 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 72.44 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -62

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 5.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-05-12 04:00:08OBSERVATION2021223-6252.7700231.8242.29501157.8408916666700.112.62.71FF20.77002194.77002130458.92086316129 72.4364782458140.6339631187119690 3112125DRYL
2021-05-12 00:00:04FORECAST2021223-6141.8641.8641.86158.946098666670.00020.11022.62.7102FF9.86183.86131459.8361027701373.0891545613960.24193544273507901112123DRYL
2021-05-11 12:00:03FORECAST2021223-6151.5240.5946.055158.978061333330.01020.12022.62.7202FF19.52193.52131459.8473110565873.1056340211210.58820534811048903112125DRYL
2021-05-11 08:00:03FORECAST2021223-6149.9934.7542.37158.910985333330.00710.11712.62.7171FF17.99191.99131459.8237885965473.0710513255830.53058588294722903112125DRYL
2021-05-11 04:00:07FORECAST2021223-6151.8735.1843.525159.2994720.00290.11292.62.7129FF19.87193.87131459.9599689455673.2713801941650.60116846704322903112125DRYL
2021-05-11 00:00:05FORECAST2021223-6251.5732.3841.975160.752506666670.00710.11712.62.7171FF19.57178.57130459.9448923871973.9372943797710.59006348165417903112125DRYL
2021-05-10 20:00:03FORECAST2021223-6251.4334.5442.985161.746165333330.00570.12572.62.7257FF19.43190.43130460.2926372993774.450569014340.58485574614828903112125DRYL
2021-05-10 16:00:03FORECAST2021223-6251.5933.842.695161.7165360.00150.12152.62.7215FF19.59190.59130460.2822807850574.4352560307370.59080617175425903112125DRYL
2021-05-10 12:00:05FORECAST2021223-6251.4635.5743.515161.097873333330.00020.12022.62.7202FF19.46190.46130460.0658578650774.1156312953380.58597297827642903112125DRYL
2021-05-10 07:54:56FORECAST2021223-6251.736.0443.87161.081446166670.00020.12022.62.7202FF19.7190.7130460.0601066150474.1071472971420.59488507581033903112125DRYL
2021-05-10 03:55:13FORECAST2021223-6251.3536.0943.72161.0886621666700.122.62.72FF19.35191.35130460.0626330096774.1108740644030.58187312814784903112125DRYL
2021-05-10 00:00:03FORECAST2021223-6251.2335.7543.49160.019754666670.0010.0012.62.601FF19.23184.23130459.6878926208973.5591438004320.57739041251484903111122.5DRYL
2021-05-09 20:00:06FORECAST2021223-6247.1635.5941.375160.120177333330.00080.02082.62.6208FF15.16187.16130459.7231423811773.610951082310.42322203144434902111122DRYL
2021-05-09 16:00:06FORECAST2021223-6251.9435.5743.755159.946829333330.00040.02042.62.6204FF19.94192.94130459.6622891731473.5215257173450.60374824620964903111122.5DRYL
2021-05-09 12:00:06FORECAST2021223-6251.0636.0843.57159.6772680.00090.03092.62.6309FF19.06192.06130459.5676073674173.3825000057240.57102284115628903111122.5DRYL
2021-05-09 07:55:15FORECAST2021223-6252.1936.1144.15160.256302971340.00020.03022.62.6302FF20.19189.19130459.7709100314173.68118625540.612923985972903111122.5DRYL
2021-05-09 04:00:08FORECAST2021223-6252.2535.8544.05160.238849551880.00020.02022.62.6202FF20.25194.25130459.7647864003173.6721804372510.61511702032495903111122.5DRYL
2021-05-09 00:00:07FORECAST2021223-6252.0335.5343.78157.869208427420.00020.06022.332.3902FF20.03187.03130458.930858816872.4510514043230.60705842823599903111122.5DRYL
2021-05-08 20:00:06FORECAST2021223-6253.835.9244.86157.760962666670.00590.08592.42.4859FF21.8191.8130458.8926447998472.3953454042750.67031486440416903111122.5DRYL
2021-05-08 16:02:36FORECAST2021223-6252.7935.6444.215157.973097061210.00160.12162.42.5216FF20.79194.79130458.9675247570472.504521336390.63468113845692903112125DRYL
2021-05-08 12:00:06FORECAST2021223-6252.6435.6544.145158.092768781130.00490.12492.42.5249FF20.64194.64130459.0097491115272.5661221345740.62927924102589903112125DRYL
2021-05-08 08:02:35FORECAST2021223-6248.4235.8242.12158.436336814120.00560.12562.452.5756FF16.42184.42130459.130900597472.7430180088190.47079671324318902112124DRYL
2021-05-08 04:00:08FORECAST2021223-6253.7334.2944.01158.528671299550.00120.13122.472.6012FF21.73194.73130459.1634422416672.7905704078960.66788998056771903112125DRYL
2021-05-07 23:55:02FORECAST2021223-6251.2434.5342.885158.277220037590.00060.07062.012.0806FF19.24195.24130459.074804813372.6610838951480.57776436358419903111122.5DRYL
2021-05-07 20:00:06FORECAST2021223-6251.3234.2442.78157.34294051430.00080.07082.072.1408FF19.32198.32130458.7449717051372.1802827942360.58075342181002903111122.5DRYL
2021-05-07 15:55:18FORECAST2021223-6251.5336.1643.845157.387555089670.00130.09132.12.1913FF19.53196.53130458.7607400016172.2032312399820.58857713448024903112125DRYL
2021-05-07 12:00:07FORECAST2021223-6248.8335.2942.06159.048530755540.00110.09112.092.1811FF16.83190.83130459.3465150655173.0583883288490.48640161457691902112124DRYL
2021-05-07 08:00:07FORECAST2021223-6247.9636.0141.985160.011213961640.00110.07112.272.3411FF15.96189.96130459.6848942991273.5547379766320.45334315409403902111122DRYL
2021-05-07 03:55:07FORECAST2021223-6247.9636.0542.005160.502886188690.00110.06112.372.4311FF15.96190.96130459.8573961456873.8084393165980.45334315409403902111122DRYL
2021-05-07 00:00:06FORECAST2021223-6252.9236.0144.465163.863405327830.00150.07152.292.3615FF20.92170.92130461.0306744584975.5460562773560.63934132005891903111122.5DRYL
2021-05-06 20:00:06FORECAST2021223-6252.0535.0443.545164.032321665850.00260.11262.522.6326FF20.05188.05130461.0893853044775.6335623669710.60779298357795903112125DRYL
2021-05-06 16:02:33FORECAST2021223-6252.6433.9243.28163.660856768510.00180.08182.482.5618FF20.64190.64130460.9602407227575.4411479329030.62927924102589903111122.5DRYL
2021-05-06 12:00:06FORECAST2021223-6253.0636.6544.855163.20169090570.00520.06522.412.4752FF21.06191.06130460.8004372736775.2034105331480.64433693007032903111122.5DRYL
2021-05-06 08:00:06FORECAST2021223-6253.6736.5645.115163.216751557230.0040.0542.452.504FF21.67183.67130460.8056817875575.211206480480.66580589733603903111122.5DRYL
2021-05-06 04:00:08FORECAST2021223-6253.6836.5745.125162.953051523750.0040.0442.432.474FF21.68191.68130460.713825516675.074723747110.66615360167538903111122.5DRYL
2021-05-06 00:00:06FORECAST2021223-6250.7336.2643.495163.799582950290.00390.14392.32.4439FF18.73183.73130461.0084849325275.5129975684920.55861081165965903112125DRYL
2021-05-05 20:00:06FORECAST2021223-6251.6338.1244.875164.683106122550.00390.14392.262.4039FF19.63193.63130461.3153454205775.9708439858550.59229057213659903112125DRYL
2021-05-05 16:00:06FORECAST2021223-6251.6638.1644.91164.670979985790.00390.15392.282.4339FF19.66193.66130461.3111384955275.9645572544180.5934030049907903112125DRYL
2021-05-05 11:55:11FORECAST2021223-6250.7536.5943.67163.338491274540.00180.13182.262.3918FF18.75189.75130460.848067385875.2742280335830.5593648238051903112125DRYL
2021-05-05 08:00:07FORECAST2021223-6250.7536.5343.64163.26363946650.00150.14152.192.3315FF18.75184.75130460.8220081028675.2354781891340.5593648238051903112125DRYL
2021-05-05 04:00:09FORECAST2021223-6250.0136.2943.15163.250859982460.0010.1712.152.321FF18.01192.01130460.8175584941875.2288627191930.53134594596238903112125DRYL
2021-05-05 00:00:07FORECAST2021223-6247.6233.7140.665163.598412349970.04450.23451.962.1945FF15.62175.62130460.9385191461375.4088099232540.44049848267144902112124DRYL
2021-05-04 20:00:06FORECAST2021223-6248.493340.745165.453450606610.0080.1882.022.208FF16.49188.49130461.5823359061676.3703902147350.47345845632283902112124DRYL
2021-05-04 16:00:06FORECAST2021223-6247.153340.075166.582942341580.00470.18472.142.3247FF15.15185.15130461.9728584258276.9567980385240.42284796634083902112124DRYL
2021-05-04 12:00:06FORECAST2021223-6242.7535.1638.955166.4152491910600.062.252.31FF10.75184.75130461.914949205276.8696913770590.26926449521714902111122DRYL
2021-05-04 08:00:08FORECAST2021223-6238.6135.1636.885167.0194623405200.062.312.37FF6.61173.61130462.1234855915177.1836160984220.15606548832016901111121.5DRYL
2021-05-04 04:00:08FORECAST2021223-6238.435.1436.77168.092280464900.052.412.46FF6.4179.4130462.4929672558977.7414975650210.15130747657279901111121.5DRYL