Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, May 10, 2021

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DAY 222 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/11/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 48.10°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.23°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 38.17°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.516 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 87 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 16 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 186 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.38 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.33 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.71 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 160 in SWE DAY: 129 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 459.33 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 73.72 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -63 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 5.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-05-11 04:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	222	-63	48.09992	28.23008	38.165	160.49836666667	0	0.38	2.33	2.71	F	F	16.09992	186.09992	129	459.33024560552	73.721754180285	0.51630357406894	87	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-11 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	222	-62	32.92	32.92	32.92	161.99497066667	0	0.38	2.33	2.71	F	F	0.92	170.92	130	460.37957293851	74.579175413706	0.085745699664954	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-10 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	222	-62	44.62	34.75	39.685	162.41080266667	0.0077	0.3877	2.33	2.7177	F	F	12.62	182.62	130	460.52474715888	74.794193833937	0.38904179959452	87	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-10 07:54:56	FORECAST	2021	222	-62	44.79	34.21	39.5	162.4352115	0.0076	0.3876	2.33	2.7176	F	F	12.79	182.79	130	460.53326394577	74.806818131817	0.39509919276938	87	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-10 03:55:13	FORECAST	2021	222	-62	46.41	31.42	38.915	162.41678883333	0.0062	0.3862	2.33	2.7162	F	F	14.41	184.41	130	460.52683591494	74.79728986088	0.45389401163813	87	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-10 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	46.02	31.32	38.67	161.333012	0.0032	0.2732	2.33	2.6032	F	F	14.02	177.02	129	459.62370219282	74.152476261359	0.43959582148721	87	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-09 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	45.32	30.92	38.12	161.33831466667	0.0048	0.2948	2.33	2.6248	F	F	13.32	184.32	129	459.62556459239	74.155213969052	0.41414096267148	87	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-09 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	46.16	30.82	38.49	161.31010666667	0.003	0.293	2.33	2.623	F	F	14.16	185.16	129	459.61565710647	74.140650673515	0.4447204396217	87	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-09 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	45.51	31.57	38.54	161.027316	0.0054	0.2954	2.33	2.6254	F	F	13.51	184.51	129	459.5162934002	73.994675384503	0.42101923196482	87	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-09 07:55:15	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	46.32	31.55	38.935	161.65276297134	0.0056	0.2956	2.33	2.6256	F	F	14.32	181.32	129	459.7359601111	74.317588189239	0.45058843030415	87	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-09 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	46.29	31.61	38.95	161.63481755188	0.0006	0.2906	2.33	2.6206	F	F	14.29	186.29	129	459.72966226198	74.308320082902	0.44948731949524	87	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-09 00:00:07	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	41.53	31.05	36.29	159.25424309409	0.0004	0.0604	2.33	2.3904	F	F	9.53	178.53	129	458.89166233209	73.080444346883	0.28489337812218	87	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2021-05-08 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	41.37	31.33	36.35	159.23105866667	0.0019	0.1519	2.33	2.4819	F	F	9.37	182.37	129	458.88347610611	73.068501705017	0.27987800955326	87	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-08 16:02:36	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	45.66	31.03	38.345	159.38508239455	0.0006	0.1906	2.33	2.5206	F	F	13.66	185.66	129	458.93785155088	73.147847283414	0.42646663307647	87	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-08 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	45.14	30.92	38.03	159.4868234478	0.0019	0.1919	2.33	2.5219	F	F	13.14	186.14	129	458.97375782577	73.200266681532	0.40764887096426	87	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-08 08:02:35	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	44.24	29.58	36.91	159.73330348079	0.0029	0.2429	2.33	2.5729	F	F	12.24	180.24	129	459.06070666904	73.327283174469	0.37560084548327	87	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-08 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	44.89	29.59	37.24	159.93218329955	0.003	0.273	2.33	2.603	F	F	12.89	184.89	129	459.1308242845	73.42979514794	0.3986743443415	87	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-07 23:55:02	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	45.45	31.06	38.255	159.54909470426	0.0008	0.1908	1.89	2.0808	F	F	13.45	188.45	129	458.99572991167	73.232353180527	0.41884443649487	87	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-07 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	47.64	31.12	39.38	158.6137765143	0.0016	0.2516	1.89	2.1416	F	F	15.64	190.64	129	458.66534160015	72.750641987422	0.49929374766372	87	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-07 15:55:18	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	47.53	31.41	39.47	158.770348423	0.0024	0.3024	1.89	2.1924	F	F	15.53	188.53	129	458.72070319098	72.831245874477	0.49522450052274	87	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-07 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	45.62	30.92	38.27	160.32712942221	0.0057	0.2857	1.89	2.1757	F	F	13.62	185.62	129	459.26996260726	73.633434734669	0.42501257576727	87	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-07 08:00:07	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	46.25	31.1	38.675	161.28150329498	0.0051	0.2351	2.1	2.3351	F	F	14.25	186.25	129	459.60561002942	74.12588370835	0.44801977800025	87	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-07 03:55:07	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	46.52	30.84	38.68	161.77454218869	0.0049	0.2349	2.2	2.4349	F	F	14.52	186.52	129	459.77869029408	74.38048713044	0.45793848506645	87	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-07 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	44.98	30.62	37.8	165.30053732783	0.0146	0.2446	2.12	2.3646	F	F	12.98	161.98	129	461.01018567842	76.205231406249	0.40189927434953	87	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-06 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	46	29.12	37.56	165.44151899918	0.0101	0.2501	2.38	2.6301	F	F	14	180	129	461.05919624795	76.278333775803	0.43886453810778	87	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-06 16:02:33	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	46.02	29.87	37.945	164.96307143517	0.011	0.221	2.34	2.561	F	F	14.02	182.02	129	460.89279844139	76.030291633245	0.43959582148721	87	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-06 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	46.97	29.64	38.305	164.73055357237	0.0018	0.1818	2.29	2.4718	F	F	14.97	181.97	129	460.81185872333	75.909792580205	0.47452497812119	87	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-06 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	42.24	29.27	35.755	164.78666889057	0.0039	0.1539	2.35	2.5039	F	F	10.24	174.24	129	460.83139690234	75.938870815722	0.30765022488072	87	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-06 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	47.98	30.07	39.025	164.52439019042	0.0026	0.1326	2.34	2.4726	F	F	15.98	181.98	129	460.74005303499	75.802976261882	0.51187001973186	87	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-06 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	45.98	28.86	37.42	165.09108295029	0.0026	0.2326	2.21	2.4426	F	F	13.98	176.98	129	460.93733898845	76.096644465828	0.43813346333669	87	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-05 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	46.73	28.86	37.795	166.14959412255	0.0024	0.2124	2.19	2.4024	F	F	14.73	185.73	129	461.30508473037	76.645652594618	0.46567150838215	87	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-05 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	46.76	28.87	37.815	166.13905331912	0.0024	0.2224	2.21	2.4324	F	F	14.76	185.76	129	461.30142753823	76.640182465962	0.46677735387695	87	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-05 11:55:11	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	47.85	31.99	39.92	164.67192060787	0.0102	0.1802	2.21	2.3902	F	F	15.85	182.85	129	460.79144097731	75.879411585403	0.50706215816899	87	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-05 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	47.88	32	39.94	164.59854479983	0.01	0.22	2.11	2.33	F	F	15.88	177.88	129	460.76588504958	75.841394172568	0.50817178119696	87	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-05 04:00:09	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	48.09	32.06	40.075	164.5349253158	0.0075	0.2275	2.09	2.3175	F	F	16.09	186.09	129	460.74372327887	75.80843409941	0.51593689136085	87	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-05 00:00:07	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	41.92	31.93	36.925	164.48368434997	0.0431	0.3031	1.85	2.1531	F	F	9.92	171.92	129	460.72587094611	75.781888728567	0.29729455788063	87	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-04 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	42.2	31.67	36.935	166.22512527328	0.0444	0.3044	1.9	2.2044	F	F	10.2	184.2	129	461.33128783145	76.684851112267	0.30634712580572	87	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-04 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	42.2	31.68	36.94	167.05668367491	0.0444	0.3144	2.01	2.3244	F	F	10.2	182.2	129	461.61943815918	77.116612458749	0.30634712580572	87	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-04 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	45.58	32	38.79	166.83104385773	0.008	0.158	2.15	2.308	F	F	13.58	185.58	129	461.54130995721	76.999418523623	0.42355953778561	87	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-04 08:00:07	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	45.59	31.96	38.775	167.25392767385	0.008	0.138	2.23	2.368	F	F	13.59	178.59	129	461.68769758718	77.219080780154	0.42392270066536	87	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-04 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	42.68	31.92	37.3	168.22927513157	0.0118	0.1318	2.33	2.4618	F	F	10.68	184.68	129	462.02472991589	77.726085406607	0.32214164128309	87	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-04 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	47.87	32.36	40.115	168.71431953012	0.0128	0.1228	2.06	2.1828	F	F	15.87	187.87	129	462.1920269069	77.978413311846	0.5078019134563	87	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-03 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	47.9	32.36	40.13	168.68639053494	0.0121	0.1321	2.32	2.4521	F	F	15.9	193.9	129	462.18239948961	77.963880738681	0.50891149528266	87	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-03 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	46.32	31.67	38.995	169.72928993968	0.0082	0.1682	2.39	2.5582	F	F	14.32	191.32	129	462.54143484786	78.506829304406	0.45058843030415	87	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-03 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	37.75	31.58	34.665	170.08165991321	0.002	0.062	2.46	2.522	F	F	5.75	182.75	129	462.66252923565	78.690410952043	0.17905153086384	87	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	DRY	L
2021-05-03 08:00:07	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	33.6	30.92	32.26	169.56047562079	0.0365	0.2365	2.21	2.4465	F	F	1.6	174.6	129	462.48338222409	78.418902256631	0.096074646361911	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-03 04:00:13	FORECAST	2021	222	-63	33.65	31.2	32.425	170.10643050359	0.0231	0.2231	2.14	2.3631	F	F	1.65	167.65	129	462.67103774444	78.703318728099	0.09686864589453	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L