MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, May 1, 2021

[ Friday, April 30, 2021 | Index | Today | Sunday, May 2, 2021 ]

DAY 213 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/02/2021 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 37.64°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.54°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.59°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.235
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 261

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.10 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.00 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.10 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 171 in
SWE DAY: 120
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.19 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 78.22 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -72

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-05-02 04:02:31OBSERVATION2021213-7237.6399429.5399433.58994170.7230837500.111.1FF5.63994260.63994120458.18521993257 78.2227936755610.2349819052890388 1122124DRYL
2021-05-02 00:00:04FORECAST2021213-7130.1230.1230.12173.012480002590.00330.103311.1033FF-1.88253.12121459.5221491996479.5030666491520.075283182918465881122124DRYL
2021-05-01 12:02:21FORECAST2021213-7141.2530.2635.755172.762706147790.03710.137111.1371FF9.25264.25121459.4343308956979.3731183027370.35210739856874882122125DRYL
2021-05-01 08:00:03FORECAST2021213-7141.2431.2336.235172.708347992110.04740.147411.1474FF9.24264.24121459.4152116602979.3448422482930.35175490108731882122125DRYL
2021-05-01 04:00:08FORECAST2021213-7141.7231.3336.525172.441836259110.04350.143511.1435FF9.72264.72121459.3214340578179.2062315220990.3688133327059882122125DRYL
2021-05-01 00:00:06FORECAST2021213-7242.1831.4736.825173.498392358520.04460.044611.0446FF10.18258.18120459.1666458384879.6646748776330.3854076064154882121122.5DRYL
2021-04-30 20:00:06FORECAST2021213-7241.6931.3436.515174.521588704410.03770.207711.2077FF9.69264.69120459.5267344263380.1973357442340.36773916588777882122125DRYL
2021-04-30 16:00:04FORECAST2021213-7241.6532.1436.895174.617360250760.06420.234211.2342FF9.65264.65120459.5603909754380.2472223479380.36630855182399882122125DRYL
2021-04-30 12:00:06FORECAST2021213-7241.3532.0636.705174.019306029620.05650.226511.2265FF9.35264.35120459.3500854314479.9357830914260.35563931647144882122125DRYL
2021-04-30 07:55:33FORECAST2021213-7240.5631.4335.995174.16479357180.05570.345711.3457FF8.56263.56120459.4012754803280.0115283106530.32809770463454882122125DRYL
2021-04-30 04:00:10FORECAST2021213-7240.9830.5535.765174.094384134170.05780.407811.4078FF8.98260.98120459.3765041573879.9748695769860.34263544618151882122125DRYL
2021-04-30 00:00:07FORECAST2021213-7240.2530.8235.535174.522579269310.05350.423511.4235FF8.25246.25120459.5270825778580.1978516955870.31753045113625882122125DRYL
2021-04-29 20:00:06FORECAST2021213-7242.1132.7337.42175.335672406210.08840.558411.5584FF10.11264.11120459.8125632574680.6215449595720.38286796553697882123127.5DRYL
2021-04-29 15:55:54FORECAST2021213-7236.2332.334.265175.692659572930.11390.563911.5639FF4.23258.23120459.9377169322280.8076807257240.19586303687859881123126DRYL
2021-04-29 11:55:54FORECAST2021213-7239.131.8635.48174.240815003760.13410.584111.5841FF7.1261.1120459.4280162317680.0511119837830.27966212348985882123127.5DRYL
2021-04-29 08:00:06FORECAST2021213-7240.2232.0836.15173.898843256630.10290.552911.5529FF8.22263.22120459.3076860736479.8730753070860.31651547713509882123127.5DRYL
2021-04-29 04:00:10FORECAST2021213-7240.9832.1236.55174.086412879180.10240.532411.5324FF8.98263.98120459.3736994454879.9707195075040.34263544618151882123127.5DRYL
2021-04-29 00:00:06FORECAST2021213-7236.2132.1534.18174.679195977410.16360.603611.6036FF4.21251.21120459.5821172680380.2794347299770.19533811731348881123126DRYL
2021-04-28 20:00:06FORECAST2021213-7241.5932.3736.98175.464433770590.1180.4881.021.508FF9.59260.59120459.8577179030280.6886740868910.36416611423933882122125DRYL
2021-04-28 16:00:06FORECAST2021213-7241.1933.0837.135175.503761329360.160.511.021.53FF9.19259.19120459.8715065338780.7091791248940.34999432901218882123127.5DRYL
2021-04-28 12:00:06FORECAST2021213-7238.2433.0235.63174.306982798690.14930.50931.021.5293FF6.24260.24120459.451286736280.0855675339620.25285401618975882123127.5DRYL
2021-04-28 07:55:50FORECAST2021213-7236.1832.5234.35174.229506674140.16530.52531.021.5453FF4.18254.18120459.4240388220780.0452236382080.19455233887305881123126DRYL
2021-04-28 04:00:08FORECAST2021213-7240.0332.2736.15174.412588091490.16280.53281.031.5628FF8.03260.03120459.488418884880.1405643357620.31011958730003882123127.5DRYL
2021-04-28 00:00:06FORECAST2021213-7239.3533.4236.385174.073006445760.16130.50131.041.5413FF7.35254.35120459.3689822203579.9637398030260.2877058336516882123127.5DRYL
2021-04-27 20:00:06FORECAST2021213-7239.7233.4536.585175.018167324910.150.531.051.58FF7.72263.72120459.7011559449780.456053830630.29980701125614882123127.5DRYL
2021-04-27 15:59:37FORECAST2021213-7239.7233.636.66175.03132502930.16090.56091.051.6109FF7.72262.72120459.7057745518280.4629108434250.29980701125614882123127.5DRYL
2021-04-27 12:00:06FORECAST2021213-7242.4133.7338.07174.153225243160.10940.51941.061.5794FF10.41271.41120459.3972058356880.0055050639810.39378624003189882123127.5DRYL
2021-04-27 08:00:07FORECAST2021213-7240.3733.1536.76174.374101108740.07960.30961.071.3796FF8.37265.37120459.4748875313180.1205204953120.32160400758343882122125DRYL
2021-04-27 04:00:10FORECAST2021213-7243.9633.8738.915173.65918465220.06320.23321.071.3032FF11.96273.96120459.2232946953879.7483429300960.45134982023711882122125DRYL
2021-04-27 00:00:08FORECAST2021213-7244.2134.6839.445173.92844436180.06220.17220.871.0422FF12.21263.21120459.318105995579.8884836430070.46076452018667882122125DRYL
2021-04-26 19:59:35FORECAST2021213-7244.4333.7139.07174.12597184030.05860.24860.91.1486FF12.43271.43120459.3876178358179.9913154070610.46906786572222882122125DRYL
2021-04-26 16:00:06FORECAST2021213-7244.5133.7839.145173.973517911030.05860.24860.91.1486FF12.51275.51120459.3339708869979.9119468112520.47209079489656882122125DRYL
2021-04-26 12:02:16FORECAST2021213-7244.2634.6739.465173.939082400830.09530.24530.91.1453FF12.26270.26120459.3218505134879.8940212049650.46265027395602882122125DRYL
2021-04-26 07:59:40FORECAST2021213-7243.1634.6438.9174.271024235040.12630.22630.921.1463FF11.16269.16120459.4386409798780.0668425367170.42143166140825882122125DRYL
2021-04-26 04:00:08FORECAST2021213-7243.2834.6738.975174.225037513530.12480.22480.931.1548FF11.28275.28120459.4224668800280.042896526730.42589492170228882122125DRYL
2021-04-26 00:00:06FORECAST2021213-7242.3434.338.32172.994033699470.12520.20520.620.8252FF10.34271.34120458.9888046733179.4023247433340.39123081563299882122125DRYL
2021-04-25 20:00:06FORECAST2021213-7242.5734.3238.445172.9406521970.12520.20520.720.9252FF10.57280.57120458.9699685640379.37456570230.39964424248225882122125DRYL
2021-04-25 16:00:06FORECAST2021213-724133.337.15173.566978622610.28260.37260.731.1026FF9283120459.1908123476779.7003619104490.34333377952213882122125DRYL
2021-04-25 11:55:44FORECAST2021213-7239.4331.6435.535175.543550300560.33930.53930.781.3193FF7.43270.43120459.8854555388380.7299255968760.29030269095466882123127.5DRYL
2021-04-25 08:00:06FORECAST2021213-7237.5331.434.465176.563771447860.33970.56970.91.4697FF5.53265.53120460.2426381507981.2621759730150.23178469416013881123126DRYL
2021-04-25 03:56:00FORECAST2021213-7237.5331.4334.48176.303372201280.33970.56970.971.5397FF5.53269.53120460.1515595155581.1262716662710.23178469416013881123126DRYL
2021-04-24 23:59:38FORECAST2021213-7247.4132.9440.175175.281983374550.11850.40851.151.5585FF15.41274.41120459.7937309702780.593557107650.58137572388748883122126DRYL
2021-04-24 19:55:46FORECAST2021213-7247.8531.9639.905174.812247890080.06130.41131.251.6613FF15.85275.85120459.6288541556680.3487531900920.5976246474418883122126DRYL
2021-04-24 16:00:06FORECAST2021213-7247.9331.9639.945175.739267652790.03550.38551.521.9055FF15.93265.93120459.9540485645480.8319876486680.60056183727642883122126DRYL
2021-04-24 12:02:13FORECAST2021213-7237.0334.235.615176.222696205560.18130.62131.361.9813FF5.03257.03120460.1233296220781.0841737330820.21755334769197881123126DRYL
2021-04-24 07:56:13FORECAST2021213-7236.6835.3436.01176.917708884310.14140.58141.482.0614FF4.68260.68120460.3663366580781.4469575290080.20789827048763881123126DRYL
2021-04-24 04:00:09FORECAST2021213-7236.5535.2935.92177.275083219390.12550.68551.482.1655FF4.55252.55120460.4911235568281.6336022503270.20437742766013881123126DRYL