Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, April 9, 2021

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DAY 191 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/10/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.81°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.31°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.06°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.228 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 2 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 76 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.08 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.75 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.36 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.11 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 205 in SWE DAY: 98 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.82 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 94.26 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -94 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 4.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-04-10 04:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	191	-94	33.81008	18.30992	26.06	205.43758125	0.080000000000041	0.75000000000004	2.36	3.11	F	F	1.81008	75.81008	98	458.82293059355	94.259473083176	0.22796104537355	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2021-04-10 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	191	-93	24.62	24.62	24.62	208.08119092597	0.0174	0.6874	2.36	3.0474	F	F	-7.38	66.62	99	460.2776324633	95.77511791955	0.048370887770132	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2021-04-09 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	191	-93	36.96	20.72	28.84	207.63717871626	0.133	0.803	2.36	3.163	F	F	4.96	78.96	99	460.12233563933	95.538503636484	0.33275326486269	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-09 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	191	-93	33.61	19.86	26.735	207.68445267753	0.1424	0.8124	2.36	3.1724	F	F	1.61	75.61	99	460.13887841788	95.56369111987	0.22199312169499	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2021-04-09 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	191	-93	35.61	21.65	28.63	207.73624295859	0.1429	0.8129	2.36	3.1729	F	F	3.61	77.61	99	460.15699933147	95.591286212219	0.2855029672463	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-08 23:56:52	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	35.05	21.56	28.305	202.66359937658	0.1399	0.4099	2.36	2.7699	F	F	3.05	79.05	98	457.83954517272	92.787410161639	0.26688500723137	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-04-08 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	34.65	21.38	28.015	202.67851878728	0.1382	0.4082	2.36	2.7682	F	F	2.65	78.65	98	457.84485270556	92.795316580744	0.25397216066374	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-04-08 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	34.73	21.44	28.085	202.85253578584	0.1698	0.4398	2.36	2.7998	F	F	2.73	78.73	98	457.90674384647	92.887544142694	0.25652828337248	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-04-08 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	34.67	21.42	28.045	202.73956186621	0.1271	0.3971	2.36	2.7571	F	F	2.67	78.67	98	457.86656649158	92.827667083691	0.2546099377448	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-04-08 08:01:47	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	34.76	21.31	28.035	202.91876576166	0.1282	0.4282	2.36	2.7882	F	F	2.76	73.76	98	457.93029211065	92.922649679971	0.25749026790623	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-04-08 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	34.97	21.27	28.12	203.51431680994	0.1191	0.4791	2.36	2.8391	F	F	2.97	79.97	98	458.14186417771	93.238428490158	0.26427618279986	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-04-08 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	34.13	21.5	27.815	210.59540925639	0.1612	0.6712	2.36	3.0312	F	F	2.13	70.13	98	460.63307985972	97.00721197009	0.23768809575315	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2021-04-07 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	33.79	21.39	27.59	207.78201630597	0.2013	1.2513	2.36	3.6113	T	F	1.79	79.79	98	459.6486547942	95.506724285464	0.22735806797152	90	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-07 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	33.26	21.37	27.315	208.21516071456	0.2467	1.2767	2.36	3.6367	T	F	1.26	79.26	98	459.80067345918	95.737471120967	0.2117705552838	90	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-07 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	33.59	21.43	27.51	210.27600097846	0.1986	1.1786	2.36	3.5386	T	F	1.59	80.59	98	460.52167042869	96.836655221665	0.22140150316341	90	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-07 08:00:04	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	33.42	21.38	27.4	210.08585125253	0.1796	1.1596	2.36	3.5196	T	F	1.42	74.42	98	460.45530337563	96.735144373412	0.21640921492925	90	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-07 04:00:09	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	33.42	21.37	27.395	210.23277047556	0.1895	1.1995	2.36	3.5595	T	F	1.42	74.42	98	460.5065847074	96.813575125274	0.21640921492925	90	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-07 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	34.02	21.29	27.655	212.23182800093	0.1688	1.1588	2.36	3.5188	T	F	2.02	60.02	98	461.20244620262	97.881838236083	0.23431818066041	90	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-06 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	34.54	21.54	28.04	211.67658404036	0.1654	1.0554	2.37	3.4254	T	F	2.54	76.54	98	461.00952294529	97.584921027136	0.2504794052426	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-04-06 16:00:07	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	34.55	21.54	28.045	211.54679047498	0.1704	1.0304	2.37	3.4004	T	F	2.55	78.55	98	460.9643860476	97.515536391639	0.25079587473782	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-04-06 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	35.05	22.01	28.53	210.90000469258	0.1563	0.9663	2.37	3.3363	T	F	3.05	78.05	98	460.73923841708	97.169907544219	0.26688500723137	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-06 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	29.4	21.96	25.68	211.26798129519	0.1514	0.9914	2.37	3.3614	T	F	-2.6	67.4	98	460.86737728027	97.366520442813	0.11812483927916	90	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-06 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	35.74	21	28.37	211.07138797859	0.1463	0.9763	2.37	3.3463	T	F	3.74	78.74	98	460.7989333607	97.261470443497	0.28991169304802	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-06 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	35.55	21.63	28.59	213.07944581382	0.157	0.947	2.37	3.317	T	F	3.55	67.55	98	461.49643251546	98.335404085448	0.28347898035743	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-05 20:00:07	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	36.43	21.85	29.14	213.00680683237	0.1525	0.9225	2.37	3.2925	T	F	4.43	78.43	98	461.47126332447	98.296520245644	0.31382865978117	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-05 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	36.43	22.2	29.315	213.07980676156	0.1525	0.9325	2.38	3.3125	T	F	4.43	79.43	98	461.49655757119	98.335597308393	0.31382865978117	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-05 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	36.92	22.26	29.59	211.90551185454	0.0402	0.7502	2.38	3.1302	F	F	4.92	79.92	98	461.08909842315	97.707321411909	0.33130925172841	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-05 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	31.65	22.9	27.275	212.23348816721	0.0467	0.7567	2.38	3.1367	F	F	-0.35	65.65	98	461.20302263071	97.882726246178	0.16841100278061	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2021-04-05 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	36.54	23	29.77	211.20400436834	0.0467	0.7367	2.37	3.1067	F	F	4.54	73.54	98	460.84510747864	97.332332093049	0.31771848775477	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-04 23:56:52	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	38.41	25.59	32	212.0782684245	0.0095	0.6495	2.41	3.0595	F	F	6.41	76.41	98	461.14911810833	97.799706453898	0.38662075436602	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-04 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	39.4	25.61	32.505	212.12154160992	0.0108	0.6808	2.41	3.0908	F	F	7.4	79.4	98	461.16414810383	97.822850031008	0.42477416206899	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-04 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	39.34	24.29	31.815	212.2505603081	0.0108	0.7208	2.41	3.1308	F	F	7.34	78.34	98	461.20895012573	97.891858083295	0.42243776509293	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-04 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	37.27	24.69	30.98	211.41765317792	0.0983	0.5683	2.41	2.9783	F	F	5.27	78.27	98	460.91946260292	97.446511087538	0.34402714417188	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-04 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	37.32	24.69	31.005	211.43690037353	0.0983	0.5283	2.46	2.9883	F	F	5.32	76.32	98	460.92615912687	97.456798386861	0.34585888848008	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-04 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	37.47	26.02	31.745	211.6968482717	0.0774	0.4974	2.48	2.9774	F	F	5.47	79.47	98	461.01656867391	97.595754589301	0.35137564473886	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-04 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	31.86	22.1	26.98	214.13546798784	0.1127	0.7427	2.52	3.2627	F	F	-0.14	61.86	98	461.86181704897	98.900996339495	0.1737194303966	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2021-04-03 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	32.09	22.14	27.115	215.15177147236	0.1127	0.7627	2.54	3.3027	F	F	0.090000000000003	71.09	98	462.21253462272	99.445845620807	0.1796538661127	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2021-04-03 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	29.62	23.61	26.615	215.29415250674	0.1264	0.7764	2.6	3.3764	T	F	-2.38	72.62	98	462.26159682761	99.522218725414	0.12251449410492	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2021-04-03 12:00:07	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	41.79	26.55	34.17	212.55796194342	0.0389	0.3789	2.63	3.0089	F	F	9.79	86.79	98	461.31563686255	98.056311584134	0.51912558387083	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-03 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	41.82	26.71	34.265	213.60582316769	0.0399	0.4199	2.64	3.0599	F	F	9.82	80.82	98	461.67868201689	98.617254911191	0.52031421490348	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-03 03:57:09	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	42.94	28.1	35.52	213.48062330899	0.0403	0.4103	2.65	3.0603	F	F	10.94	79.94	98	461.63535570821	98.550203478055	0.56446967643881	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-03 00:00:07	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	35.85	26.32	31.085	220.72441275193	0.4701	1.1901	2.71	3.9001	T	F	3.85	62.85	98	464.11959545763	102.44252515405	0.29366688240819	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-04-02 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	36.36	26.02	31.19	218.30400241113	0.1522	0.8722	2.72	3.5922	T	F	4.36	72.36	98	463.29460126364	101.13906575132	0.31136400013205	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-02 15:57:02	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	35.29	27.09	31.19	220.39363369654	0.0263	0.7163	2.77	3.4863	T	F	3.29	69.29	98	464.00714876674	102.26422157788	0.27478865385523	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-02 12:00:07	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	31.61	26.65	29.13	221.04156128107	0.0722	0.8822	2.83	3.7122	T	F	-0.39	72.61	98	464.22731983939	102.61353156663	0.16741179685763	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2021-04-02 08:00:07	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	30.56	27.83	29.195	221.0463292099	0.0716	0.8916	2.79	3.6816	T	F	-1.44	59.56	98	464.22893867782	102.61610280774	0.14254936437237	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2021-04-02 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	191	-94	30.55	27.83	29.19	220.94341781821	0.0568	0.8768	2.78	3.6568	T	F	-1.45	72.55	98	464.19399317236	102.56060738218	0.14232522422079	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L