MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, April 5, 2021

[ Sunday, April 4, 2021 | Index | Today | Tuesday, April 6, 2021 ]

DAY 187 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/06/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.60°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 16.76°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.68°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.444
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 46

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.14 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.15 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 206 in
SWE DAY: 94
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.92 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 94.16 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -98

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-04-06 04:00:07OBSERVATION2021187-9838.6000616.7599427.68206.0675012500.015.145.15TF6.6000645.6000694456.91856164528 94.1560662729870.4444774439537291 2111122WETL
2021-04-06 00:00:03FORECAST2021187-9727.3127.3127.31208.000425454630.00010.01015.145.1501TF-4.6934.3195458.1411256878395.2935490613340.091598230417777911111121.5WETL
2021-04-05 12:00:02FORECAST2021187-9737.9227.7732.845207.875985015610.01010.02015.145.1601TF5.9244.9295458.0969439003295.2273534459210.41630600844029912111122WETL
2021-04-05 08:00:02FORECAST2021187-9733.7421.2227.48207.997238341180.00530.01535.145.1553TF1.7440.7495458.1399942976995.2918535875630.25712371466712912111122WETL
2021-04-05 04:00:08FORECAST2021187-9737.3322.4929.91208.048317916670.00430.01435.145.1543TF5.3344.3395458.1581258811295.3190274294190.39220360243575912111122WETL
2021-04-04 23:56:49FORECAST2021187-9838.1120.6529.38209.862973648160.00140.05145.145.1914TF6.1141.1194458.2711628348196.1741489697150.4241400197825912111122WETL
2021-04-04 20:00:03FORECAST2021187-9838.2722.2330.25209.85726786660.00250.05255.145.1925TF6.2741.2794458.2691392233896.1711095049980.4307605418807912111122WETL
2021-04-04 16:00:03FORECAST2021187-9838.7325.0731.9209.839485297420.00080.05085.145.1908TF6.7341.7394458.2628322725296.1616368550050.44989683521301912111122WETL
2021-04-04 12:00:06FORECAST2021187-9838.825.4132.105209.946914323180.00040.05045.145.1904TF6.841.894458.3009298300796.2188660492670.45282025959518912111122WETL
2021-04-04 08:00:06FORECAST2021187-9839.072331.035210.029813521640.00080.10085.145.2408TF7.0743.0794458.3303212691696.2630319074740.46411889480019912112124WETL
2021-04-04 04:00:08FORECAST2021187-9838.8123.4431.125210.4053218089100.125.145.26TF6.8144.8194458.4633781152496.4631346099390.45323810424943912112124WETL
2021-04-04 00:00:06FORECAST2021187-9837.923.1730.535212.113715210590.00240.16245.145.3024TF5.932.994459.0671272538997.3744338928730.4154832493405912112124WETL
2021-04-03 20:00:06FORECAST2021187-9838.4323.7231.075212.170138105290.0010.1815.145.321TF6.4345.4394459.0870225437297.4045569754450.43740057866114912112124WETL
2021-04-03 16:00:06FORECAST2021187-9836.5623.8930.225212.19309527660.01360.24365.145.3836TF4.5643.5694459.0951166611297.4168138306940.36137236712306912112124WETL
2021-04-03 12:00:07FORECAST2021187-9838.124.6931.395211.765620413270.01830.25835.145.3983TF6.146.194458.9443223904997.1886291661690.42372692677181912112124WETL
2021-04-03 08:00:06FORECAST2021187-9838.5423.8931.215211.854239693530.0090.2795.145.419TF6.5444.5494458.9755968169697.235926101540.44197596946879912112124WETL
2021-04-03 03:57:09FORECAST2021187-9837.7123.6630.685212.485633947610.00350.29355.145.4335TF5.7139.7194459.1982170741897.5730242626180.40768599946472912112124WETL
2021-04-03 00:00:06FORECAST2021187-9837.2523.8930.57215.136125837730.01070.35075.145.4907TF5.2532.2594460.1288559078798.9903394461680.38896488964339912112124WETL
2021-04-02 20:00:05FORECAST2021187-9839.6223.5331.575215.080735505120.00590.33595.155.4859TF7.6243.6294460.1094713229698.9606835050130.48721461159889912112124WETL
2021-04-02 15:57:01FORECAST2021187-9839.4824.2231.85215.696011388570.02270.40275.155.5527TF7.4842.4894460.3246422852399.2901892847960.48132854285847912112124WETL
2021-04-02 12:00:06FORECAST2021187-9838.2324.4931.36215.89385900420.02420.43425.155.5842TF6.2339.2394460.3937610660399.3961857380030.42910351040928912112124WETL
2021-04-02 08:00:06FORECAST2021187-9835.0125.9230.465215.505951188290.03020.37025.155.5202TF3.0135.0194460.2582113475599.1883836286730.30213243435877912112124WETL
2021-04-02 04:00:07FORECAST2021187-9836.8324.6730.75215.656452296120.03210.36215.155.5121TF4.8337.8394460.3108180057199.2689979646360.37209276981297912112124WETL
2021-04-02 00:00:06FORECAST2021187-9837.325.4131.355219.575154475890.00670.38675.155.5367TF5.326.394461.67351933856101.372034326190.39098819681305912112124WETL
2021-04-01 20:00:07FORECAST2021187-9837.2325.6631.445219.57073371170.01320.37325.165.5332TF5.2340.2394461.6719896781101.369657507760.3881564055569912112124WETL
2021-04-01 16:00:06FORECAST2021187-9837.1826.8932.035219.194463000430.01460.27465.155.4246TF5.1839.1894461.54173057164101.167391784940.38613732122381912112124WETL
2021-04-01 12:00:06FORECAST2021187-9836.5125.4630.985219.120268422050.01640.37645.155.5264TF4.5138.5194461.51603085756101.127516562590.35939870286336912112124WETL
2021-04-01 08:00:06FORECAST2021187-9831.1425.0528.095219.974105429660.02710.43715.155.5871TF-0.8623.1494461.81149253853101.58656994830.17707949266639911112123WETL
2021-04-01 04:00:08FORECAST2021187-9838.0125.8331.92219.092070903670.0050.3755.165.535TF6.0134.0194461.50626245648101.11236277660.42001291333722912112124WETL
2021-04-01 00:00:05FORECAST2021187-9846.1525.7935.97219.635234396110.0010.2915.155.441TF14.1526.1594461.69430632171101.404337188320.74430894468357914112126WETL
2021-03-31 20:00:06FORECAST2021187-9845.4928.3936.94220.376380056450.00170.19175.165.3517TF13.4935.4994461.95047370454101.802973160370.72142090236426914112126WETL
2021-03-31 16:00:06FORECAST2021187-9846.7128.3137.51220.123053735470.00190.20195.165.3619TF14.7135.7194461.86296898808101.666687140990.76293071665528914112126WETL
2021-03-31 12:00:07FORECAST2021187-9844.9932.7938.89218.508308399770.04210.13215.165.2921TF12.9944.9994461.30387371057100.798729102750.70344272420367914112126WETL
2021-03-31 08:00:07FORECAST2021187-9845.0832.7838.93218.894854170560.04210.15215.165.3121TF13.0833.0894461.43792155746101.006386548080.70671771383367914112126WETL
2021-03-31 04:00:08FORECAST2021187-9848.0333.1640.595218.856427892730.05660.16665.165.3266TF16.0349.0394461.42460183391100.985740099190.80373172257964914112126WETL
2021-03-30 23:57:10FORECAST2021187-9845.5830.0637.82222.571010623210.04150.21155.175.3815TF13.5840.5894462.7061972338102.984985939950.72459977362416914112126WETL
2021-03-30 20:00:07FORECAST2021187-9846.1429.6237.88223.462421079240.05910.32915.175.4991TF14.1436.1494463.01195440836103.465772320720.74396961882089914112126WETL
2021-03-30 16:00:07FORECAST2021187-9846.1629.6237.89223.451062284780.05910.32915.175.4991TF14.1637.1694463.00806265163103.459643445930.74464803590243914112126WETL
2021-03-30 12:00:07FORECAST2021187-9841.7925.3433.565225.012486539470.05240.46245.185.6424TF9.7927.7994463.5419869737104.30273510440.57801432100825913112125WETL
2021-03-30 08:00:06FORECAST2021187-9841.8125.3433.575224.763149640590.05240.43245.175.6024TF9.8126.8194463.45686898109104.168025594760.57883953685442913112125WETL
2021-03-30 04:00:09FORECAST2021187-9842.5626.0134.285223.495677826750.0090.2895.175.459TF10.5633.5694463.02334820882103.483717057540.60950470855301913112125WETL
2021-03-30 00:00:06FORECAST2021187-9829.8521.4725.66225.94211716610.49990.94995.035.9799TF-2.1515.8594463.8588671505104.805254510250.14395683627895911113124.5WETL
2021-03-29 20:01:32FORECAST2021187-9829.8621.4725.665226.236080200820.49450.94455.086.0245TF-2.1424.8694463.95891376615104.964246024690.14419641524405911113124.5WETL
2021-03-29 16:00:06FORECAST2021187-9829.8121.5225.665224.730730217580.34320.75325.15.8532TF-2.1921.8194463.44579776067104.150512547030.14300119882127911113124.5WETL
2021-03-29 12:00:06FORECAST2021187-9829.1819.5524.365232.06743775140.54981.66985.086.7498TT-2.828.1894465.92818195611108.126759362720.12851312646116911115127.5WETL
2021-03-29 07:57:32FORECAST2021187-9829.1822.0925.635231.779828985440.4921.6125.126.732TT-2.827.1894465.83173785353107.970400535680.12851312646116911115127.5WETL
2021-03-29 04:00:08FORECAST2021187-9827.2927.0427.165233.887390830450.29261.61265.186.7926TT-4.712.2994466.53683765388109.117083685150.09125099698663911115127.5WETL