Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, April 4, 2021

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DAY 186 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/05/2021 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.64°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.17°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.91°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.194 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 1 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 48 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.01 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.44 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.45 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 208 in SWE DAY: 93 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 457.11 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 95.13 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -99 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 1.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-04-05 04:00:08	OBSERVATION	2021	186	-99	32.64008	21.16994	26.90501	208.10161791667	0.0099999999999909	0.0099999999999909	5.44	5.45	T	F	0.64008	47.64008	93	457.11110322184	95.125560148137	0.19444174813763	89	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2021-04-04 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	186	-98	29.44	21.02	25.23	210.11195298985	0.0486	0.0486	5.44	5.4886	T	F	-2.56	44.44	94	458.3594372469	96.306796531275	0.10926122713681	89	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2021-04-04 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	186	-98	29.97	22.41	26.19	210.2010841883	0.0975	0.0975	5.44	5.5375	T	F	-2.03	44.97	94	458.39102471186	96.35429037662	0.12113083146251	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-04-04 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	186	-98	32.23	22.75	27.49	210.57314847558	0.1179	0.1179	5.44	5.5579	T	F	0.23	47.23	94	458.52280445422	96.552590581777	0.18170478560272	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-04-04 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	33.57	22.77	28.17	212.23797512932	0.1619	0.1619	5.44	5.6019	T	F	1.57	35.57	93	458.58253703772	97.328629090552	0.22526655017487	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-04-03 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	32.6	23.39	27.995	212.32014343862	0.1564	0.1764	5.44	5.6164	T	F	0.6	47.6	93	458.61161060387	97.372482946029	0.19317347991586	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-04-03 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	32.67	23.43	28.05	212.26117913109	0.2069	0.2269	5.44	5.6669	T	F	0.67	47.67	93	458.59074791131	97.341012890264	0.19539180826056	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-04-03 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	33.93	24.41	29.17	211.85993982178	0.2228	0.2428	5.44	5.6828	T	F	1.93	48.93	93	458.44869881494	97.126913742304	0.23790349403647	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-04-03 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	33.73	23.34	28.535	211.97735789561	0.2382	0.2682	5.44	5.7082	T	F	1.73	46.73	93	458.49028283565	97.189558776313	0.23083556189038	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-04-03 03:57:09	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	33.57	22.83	28.2	212.586712399	0.246	0.286	5.44	5.726	T	F	1.57	42.57	93	458.70588878442	97.514776854739	0.22526655017487	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-04-03 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	33.81	22.75	28.28	215.22397795172	0.2731	0.3431	5.44	5.7831	T	F	1.81	35.81	93	459.63518604883	98.924513148009	0.23364859502604	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-04-02 20:00:04	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	33.58	22.3	27.94	215.24293150512	0.2603	0.3403	5.44	5.7803	T	F	1.58	44.58	93	459.64184223682	98.934657565466	0.22561237282841	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-04-02 15:57:00	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	33.39	22.93	28.16	215.78386855791	0.3188	0.3888	5.44	5.8288	T	F	1.39	44.39	93	459.8316757526	99.224257879365	0.21909320857435	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-04-02 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	32.1	22.98	27.54	215.93527031502	0.3369	0.4169	5.44	5.8569	T	F	0.1	42.1	93	459.88476116338	99.305340215571	0.17777828802493	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-04-02 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	31.92	23.95	27.935	215.4610263781	0.2525	0.3525	5.44	5.7925	T	F	-0.079999999999998	40.92	93	459.71841065112	99.051400603799	0.17243049307743	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-04-02 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	31.7	24.25	27.975	215.62887769792	0.2538	0.3438	5.44	5.7838	T	F	-0.3	41.7	93	459.77731075827	99.141265509775	0.16603486745276	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-04-02 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	31.97	23.86	27.915	219.66101296231	0.2777	0.3877	5.44	5.8277	T	F	-0.030000000000001	29.97	93	461.18469211139	101.3042966319	0.1739056212823	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-04-01 20:00:07	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	33.16	23.82	28.49	219.6203097644	0.2485	0.3685	5.45	5.8185	T	F	1.16	44.16	93	461.17055691512	101.28242056392	0.21134816510439	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-04-01 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	31.83	25.92	28.875	219.23364613581	0.1686	0.2586	5.45	5.7086	T	F	-0.17	42.83	93	461.03620546231	101.07464832412	0.16979539075204	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-04-01 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	33.08	25.9	29.49	219.13125251552	0.2577	0.3577	5.45	5.8077	T	F	1.08	43.08	93	461.00060532538	101.01964005537	0.20869222092508	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-04-01 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	31.82	24.82	28.32	219.84044409102	0.3204	0.4104	5.45	5.8604	T	F	-0.18	32.82	93	461.24698660909	101.40074237179	0.16950420008411	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-04-01 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	31.52	24.35	27.935	219.1800123021	0.2807	0.3807	5.45	5.8307	T	F	-0.48	36.52	93	461.01755924606	101.04583430704	0.16091732133987	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-04-01 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	32.52	26.73	29.625	220.09847560141	0.2132	0.2932	5.45	5.7432	T	F	0.52	20.52	93	461.33651965585	101.53946471551	0.19065711751878	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-03-31 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	33.72	27.85	30.785	220.83595300679	0.1447	0.1947	5.46	5.6547	T	F	1.72	30.72	93	461.59208991709	101.93612907723	0.23048526523797	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-03-31 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	33.75	27.85	30.8	220.67432501457	0.1503	0.2003	5.46	5.6603	T	F	1.75	29.75	93	461.53611924739	101.84917158476	0.23153704480802	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-03-31 12:00:07	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	40.37	31.49	35.93	218.91832183017	0.0465	0.0865	5.46	5.5465	T	F	8.37	41.37	93	460.92654409129	100.90526551945	0.51138085405171	89	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2021-03-31 08:00:07	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	36.06	31.44	33.75	219.44584618966	0.075	0.105	5.46	5.565	T	F	4.06	29.06	93	461.10995354747	101.1886639427	0.31997587677278	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-03-31 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	39.16	31.27	35.215	219.60711427723	0.0758	0.1058	5.46	5.5658	T	F	7.16	42.16	93	461.16597414082	101.27532878391	0.45588777731548	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-03-30 23:57:10	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	35.33	20.84	28.085	223.08131769263	0.135	0.165	5.47	5.635	T	F	3.33	36.33	93	462.36727215401	103.14550033006	0.29053225982107	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-03-30 20:00:07	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	33.61	20.96	27.285	223.85102853871	0.1872	0.2672	5.47	5.7372	T	F	1.61	30.61	93	462.63198866761	103.56064649815	0.22665163809703	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-03-30 16:00:07	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	33.62	23.25	28.435	223.83702046545	0.1868	0.2768	5.46	5.7368	T	F	1.62	31.62	93	462.62717567768	103.55308859004	0.22699865829181	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-03-30 12:00:07	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	32.67	22.53	27.6	225.02142090244	0.3208	0.4308	5.46	5.8908	T	F	0.67	26.67	93	463.03351582731	104.19245965691	0.19539180826056	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-03-30 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	32.57	22.58	27.575	224.7643542388	0.3208	0.3908	5.46	5.8508	T	F	0.57	25.57	93	462.94542609148	104.05362974326	0.19222748267902	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-03-30 04:00:09	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	32.43	25.31	28.87	223.72499848395	0.2172	0.2872	5.46	5.7472	T	F	0.43	32.43	93	462.58868023552	103.49265178439	0.18785033043613	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-03-30 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	32.88	24.45	28.665	220.974863345	0.3808	0.4608	5.32	5.7808	T	F	0.88	26.88	93	461.6401752614	102.01087464295	0.20213886542763	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-03-29 20:01:32	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	32.74	24.97	28.855	221.00811412429	0.3808	0.4608	5.37	5.8308	T	F	0.74	35.74	93	461.65168286866	102.02876781311	0.1976255084728	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-03-29 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	30.73	24.34	27.535	221.15006321424	0.3513	0.4113	5.4	5.8113	T	F	-1.27	32.73	93	461.70079843835	102.10516076071	0.13968398236919	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-03-29 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	30.22	22.6	26.41	227.24636201478	0.8123	1.1323	5.37	6.5023	T	T	-1.78	20.22	93	463.79354397451	105.39539559415	0.127032826396	89	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-03-29 07:57:32	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	30.22	22.6	26.41	227.53521005102	0.8123	1.1323	5.41	6.5423	T	T	-1.78	19.22	93	463.89189831172	105.55174052332	0.127032826396	89	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-03-29 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	27.02	20.93	23.975	231.07053024395	0.9326	1.3326	5.47	6.8026	T	T	-4.98	16.02	93	465.08986589087	107.46856192249	0.065557484809153	89	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-03-29 00:00:07	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	31.49	22.37	26.93	235.78267381376	0.5777	0.9277	5.23	6.1577	T	F	-0.51	10.49	93	466.66997485397	110.03269445967	0.16007448914651	89	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2021-03-28 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	35.07	24.46	29.765	230.30240955358	0.5669	0.9269	6.22	7.1469	T	T	3.07	28.07	93	464.83049685698	107.05158346015	0.28036012228048	89	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-03-28 16:00:08	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	35.07	27.13	31.1	230.21227622143	0.4998	0.8598	6.28	7.1398	T	T	3.07	28.07	93	464.80002861521	107.00267257529	0.28036012228048	89	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-03-28 12:00:07	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	30.68	24.34	27.51	234.38888118301	0.2044	0.3944	6.38	6.7744	T	T	-1.32	15.68	93	466.20456661055	109.27316677025	0.13840719087111	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-03-28 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	186	-99	31.72	27.85	29.785	233.10575425051	0.0798	0.1898	6.48	6.6698	T	T	-0.28	12.72	93	465.77465224305	108.57475162188	0.16660988908588	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L