Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, April 27, 2021

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DAY 209 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/28/2021 08:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 41.21°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.89°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.05°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.388 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 9 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 203 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.53 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.77 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.30 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 179 in SWE DAY: 116 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.94 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 82.08 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -76 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 7.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-04-28 07:55:49	OBSERVATION	2021	209	-76	41.21006	24.89	33.05003	178.84478666667	0	0.53	0.77	1.3	F	F	9.21006	203.21006	116	458.94169364153	82.079329291758	0.38841331860888	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-04-28 04:00:08	OBSERVATION	2021	209	-76	41.21006	24.89	33.05003	178.84478666667	0	0.53	0.77	1.3	F	F	9.21006	203.21006	116	458.94169364153	82.079329291758	0.38841331860888	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-04-28 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	209	-75	33.21	33.21	33.21	178.99338533333	0.0015	0.5315	0.77	1.3015	F	F	1.21	195.21	117	459.52097291926	82.251214574486	0.14970593897636	91	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2021-04-27 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	209	-75	43.79	34.42	39.105	179.49466133333	0.0128	0.5428	0.77	1.3128	F	F	11.79	205.79	117	459.69705065713	82.513166423633	0.48393341846728	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-04-27 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	209	-75	40.26	29.84	35.05	179.60110277555	0.0193	0.5493	0.77	1.3193	F	F	8.26	202.26	117	459.73441033056	82.568807079236	0.35457200756666	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-04-27 04:00:10	FORECAST	2021	209	-75	44.58	30.22	37.4	179.16365924365	0.0173	0.5473	0.77	1.3173	F	F	12.58	206.58	117	459.58080831769	82.34017933635	0.51363229322237	91	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-04-27 00:00:07	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	43.73	29.8	36.765	179.52188302847	0.0265	0.3465	0.77	1.1165	F	F	11.73	199.73	116	459.18047218979	82.432943017413	0.48167937476058	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-26 19:59:33	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	40.56	28.44	34.5	179.57645717363	0.0234	0.3834	0.77	1.1534	F	F	8.56	205.56	116	459.1996999262	82.461455247942	0.36514907211337	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-26 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	44.28	31.25	37.765	179.44319124436	0.0192	0.3792	0.77	1.1492	F	F	12.28	209.28	116	459.1527425573	82.391833393083	0.50235422183973	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-26 12:02:16	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	44.47	30.37	37.42	179.27351040083	0.0196	0.3796	0.77	1.1496	F	F	12.47	209.47	116	459.0929310799	82.303201354898	0.50949778891134	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-26 07:59:40	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	44.06	31.36	37.71	179.66159490171	0.0211	0.4011	0.77	1.1711	F	F	12.06	208.06	116	459.22969059956	82.505938639335	0.49408193059663	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-26 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	44.12	31.05	37.585	179.67978684686	0.021	0.411	0.77	1.181	F	F	12.12	210.12	116	459.23609806549	82.515444212793	0.49633790731469	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-26 00:00:04	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	43.74	31.49	37.615	178.47961079897	0.021	0.101	0.77	0.871	F	F	11.74	204.74	116	458.8127435281	81.888719894505	0.48205500999323	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-25 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	43.72	31.02	37.37	178.47907628819	0.0226	0.2026	0.77	0.9726	F	F	11.72	214.72	116	458.81255469513	81.888440951409	0.48130375579247	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-25 16:00:05	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	43.51	31.2	37.355	178.39497431628	0.0228	0.2128	0.77	0.9828	F	F	11.51	215.51	116	458.78283979923	81.844552922734	0.47342010384118	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-25 11:55:44	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	43.11	31.33	37.22	178.69439554036	0.0248	0.2548	0.77	1.0248	F	F	11.11	215.11	116	458.88860233755	82.000821415068	0.45843494491353	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-25 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	42.97	30.91	36.94	179.11621540298	0.0235	0.3435	0.77	1.1135	F	F	10.97	211.97	116	459.03746250965	82.221053012914	0.4532029663092	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-25 03:56:00	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	43.04	30.98	37.01	178.82462916895	0.0249	0.3749	0.77	1.1449	F	F	11.04	214.04	116	458.93457878796	82.068805864566	0.45581799794746	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-24 23:59:38	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	42.15	31.51	36.83	180.22187846703	0.0365	0.6265	0.65	1.2765	F	F	10.15	207.15	116	459.42689476986	82.798777993699	0.42275034553391	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-04-24 19:55:46	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	43.94	31.53	37.735	179.16278218617	0.0504	0.7004	0.65	1.3504	F	F	11.94	210.94	116	459.0538861478	82.245371415615	0.48957061706064	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-04-24 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	41.76	31.35	36.555	179.82716916396	0.155	0.865	0.65	1.515	F	F	9.76	203.76	116	459.28799733281	82.592460391341	0.40841582347881	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-04-24 12:02:13	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	39.61	31.24	35.425	180.22801068731	0.0759	0.6759	0.65	1.3259	F	F	7.61	205.61	116	459.42905158792	82.801984019649	0.33204498267606	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-04-24 07:56:12	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	43.15	30.34	36.745	180.90882880333	0.1063	0.7163	0.76	1.4763	F	F	11.15	209.15	116	459.66829943205	83.15805368827	0.45993115980648	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-04-24 04:00:09	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	43.75	28.58	36.165	180.76213577736	0.0823	0.6223	0.86	1.4823	F	F	11.75	209.75	116	459.61678466427	83.081311635034	0.48243066115738	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-04-24 00:02:12	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	42.42	30.43	36.425	181.57790439425	0.0867	0.7667	0.92	1.6867	F	F	10.42	196.42	116	459.90301806915	83.50822624559	0.43273572223921	91	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-23 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	42.85	28.27	35.56	183.70267550229	0.0663	0.6163	1.71	2.3263	F	F	10.85	212.85	116	460.64577045974	84.621860492267	0.44872483443054	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-04-23 15:56:02	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	42.63	31.08	36.855	182.73883872794	0.1683	0.8183	1.02	1.8383	F	F	10.63	210.63	116	460.30934050142	84.116394338851	0.44053227230719	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-04-23 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	44.4	29.7	37.05	181.55955803604	0.1649	0.7649	1.01	1.7749	F	F	12.4	220.4	116	459.89658729447	83.498621131466	0.50686618120377	91	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-04-23 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	40.82	29.58	35.2	182.13659615561	0.0502	0.6202	0.98	1.6002	F	F	8.82	206.82	116	460.09870754041	83.800812487005	0.37439989688566	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-04-23 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	40.85	29.59	35.22	182.03865717155	0.0502	0.5802	1	1.5802	F	F	8.85	210.85	116	460.064423135	83.7495097999	0.37547208254883	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-04-22 23:59:39	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	47.11	28.92	38.015	182.13568038331	0.0203	0.5403	0.97	1.5103	F	F	15.11	226.11	116	460.09838700573	83.800332760551	0.60743640811432	91	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-04-22 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	47.33	27.76	37.545	182.76200938165	0.026	0.446	1.05	1.496	F	F	15.33	229.33	116	460.31743794957	84.128539913077	0.61538409710237	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-22 15:56:05	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	47.4	27.55	37.475	182.93062536001	0.0265	0.4965	1.03	1.5265	F	F	15.4	228.4	116	460.37634982364	84.216933574198	0.61790295001879	91	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-04-22 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	47.08	29.03	38.055	182.81072012265	0.0803	0.5503	1.09	1.6403	F	F	15.08	226.08	116	460.33445933786	84.154074008823	0.60634907145697	91	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-04-22 07:59:42	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	47.17	29.05	38.11	183.50205053666	0.0803	0.6003	1.11	1.7103	F	F	15.17	214.17	116	460.57580960795	84.516605490644	0.60960856023865	91	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-04-22 03:55:57	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	48.21	28.71	38.46	182.63840983784	0.0446	0.5546	1.08	1.6346	F	F	16.21	225.21	116	460.27423810834	84.063754937433	0.64666251298067	91	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-04-22 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	45.66	28.53	37.095	183.05699725491	0.1568	0.6268	1.03	1.6568	F	F	13.66	217.66	116	460.42048571543	84.283191589714	0.55407882057208	91	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-04-21 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	45.77	28.45	37.11	184.00507402972	0.1568	0.5668	0.98	1.5468	F	F	13.77	228.77	116	460.75115389377	84.780550181501	0.55817406140464	91	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-04-21 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	46.56	27.96	37.26	182.99223847326	0.2773	0.6573	0.92	1.5773	F	F	14.56	231.56	116	460.39787022064	84.249236859996	0.58737711820206	91	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-04-21 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	38.65	30.74	34.695	183.64620030223	1.1309	1.8009	0.94	2.7409	F	F	6.65	214.65	116	460.62608033894	84.592229414357	0.29987407224888	91	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2021-04-21 07:59:42	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	38.64	30.81	34.725	184.17467216682	1.1309	1.7909	1.13	2.9209	T	F	6.64	210.64	116	460.81022204975	84.869571577131	0.29954647485832	91	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2021-04-21 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	38.17	32.09	35.13	184.10021620194	1.3118	2.0718	1.13	3.2018	T	F	6.17	215.17	116	460.78429343275	84.830488043427	0.28433584459286	91	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2021-04-21 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	38.14	29.8	33.97	185.30578646946	1.9525	2.7525	1.21	3.9625	T	F	6.14	202.14	116	461.20351989072	85.463680975832	0.28337760566479	91	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2021-04-20 20:00:07	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	32.72	28.59	30.655	195.34022226422	1.5282	2.2682	1.16	3.4282	T	F	0.72	188.72	116	464.64354196007	90.763572760114	0.13919946258865	91	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-04-20 16:02:07	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	32.07	29.01	30.54	192.1082062862	0.8143	1.3943	1.2	2.5943	F	F	0.07	195.07	116	463.54509439095	89.050816616213	0.12605162133812	91	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-20 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	31.93	27.43	29.68	192.233339804	0.294	1.154	1.05	2.204	F	F	-0.07	201.93	116	463.58779085229	89.117029327893	0.1233366545693	91	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-04-20 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	31.73	30.54	31.135	190.04746475385	0.0281	0.9181	0.95	1.8681	F	F	-0.27	195.73	116	462.83999900168	87.961568396942	0.11952940861913	91	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2021-04-20 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	209	-76	31.73	30.84	31.285	189.70149067403	0.014	0.904	0.98	1.884	F	F	-0.27	198.73	116	462.72125959746	87.778912712202	0.11952940861913	91	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L