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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, April 26, 2021

[ Sunday, April 25, 2021 | Index | Today | Tuesday, April 27, 2021 ]

DAY 208 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/27/2021 04:00:09 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.34°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.74°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.04°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.233
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 196

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.21 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.38 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.38 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 180 in
SWE DAY: 115
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.71 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 82.43 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -77

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-04-27 04:00:09OBSERVATION2021208-7736.3399827.7399432.03996179.69452250.2100000000000410.381.38FF4.33998196.33998115458.71338246745 82.4282822268480.2330443697755288 1114126DRYL
2021-04-27 00:00:06FORECAST2021208-7629.6929.6929.69180.006736365040.00170.79170.381.1717FF-2.31189.69116459.3512039475882.6863110679550.083128640041087881113124.5DRYL
2021-04-26 12:02:13FORECAST2021208-7639.0232.8435.93179.8241156390.0420.8320.381.212FF7.02199.02116459.2869222604182.5908646200360.32099121649454882123127.5DRYL
2021-04-26 07:59:40FORECAST2021208-7638.2128.5333.37180.188367172850.05730.84730.381.2273FF6.21198.21116459.4151076192882.7812580964560.2929824084488882113126DRYL
2021-04-26 04:00:08FORECAST2021208-7639.9129.2534.58180.205858650550.06650.85650.381.2365FF7.91199.91116459.4212601383482.7904026655450.35297922740738882123127.5DRYL
2021-04-26 00:00:03FORECAST2021208-7739.7229.1934.455178.987474844530.08220.55220.380.9322FF7.72194.72115458.463192484682.059169131980.34605292987012882113126DRYL
2021-04-25 20:00:02FORECAST2021208-7739.4929.1234.305178.969601415150.07450.65450.381.0345FF7.49205.49115458.4568621175282.0498418792140.33773701779522882123127.5DRYL
2021-04-25 16:00:02FORECAST2021208-7740.1128.934.505178.909440918590.08110.66110.381.0411FF8.11206.11115458.4355525096582.0184483967050.36032300387438882123127.5DRYL
2021-04-25 11:55:44FORECAST2021208-7739.8229.7134.765179.135402259760.11850.69850.381.0785FF7.82205.82115458.5155740205582.1363717945370.34969210970432882123127.5DRYL
2021-04-25 08:00:06FORECAST2021208-7739.8429.2734.555179.546273112870.18130.79130.381.1713FF7.84202.84115458.6609613983182.3508662414310.35042161806303882123127.5DRYL
2021-04-25 03:56:00FORECAST2021208-7739.8229.3534.585179.241029180020.20040.82040.381.2004FF7.82204.82115458.5529647835382.1915053413470.34969210970432882123127.5DRYL
2021-04-24 23:59:38FORECAST2021208-7739.1628.934.03180.609953741020.18470.94470.381.3247FF7.16199.16115459.0366425765382.9065867811820.3259433471456882123127.5DRYL
2021-04-24 19:55:46FORECAST2021208-7738.1328.8133.47179.589089245250.16830.99830.381.3783FF6.13201.13115458.6761032347982.3732236384960.290278637859268821241210DRYL
2021-04-24 16:00:06FORECAST2021208-7737.4628.2832.87180.144792127820.22931.05930.381.4393FF5.46196.46115458.8724770994982.6634870002670.2681059305603882114128DRYL
2021-04-24 12:02:13FORECAST2021208-7737.5928.8133.2180.545707831380.18030.95030.381.3303FF5.59199.59115459.0139803646282.8730039894280.27234070255129882123127.5DRYL
2021-04-24 07:56:12FORECAST2021208-7737.6528.8933.27181.244966346140.19681.06680.381.4468FF5.65199.65115459.2604391988283.2386428467010.274306345032418821241210DRYL
2021-04-24 04:00:09FORECAST2021208-7734.3528.8931.62181.118572859280.20731.09730.381.4773FF2.35200.35115459.2159232842583.1725326594990.17751324948148881124128DRYL
2021-04-24 00:02:12FORECAST2021208-7736.5128.4132.46181.869386625720.26831.28830.391.6783FF4.51187.51115459.4801510756483.565373242820.23819762997925881114126DRYL
2021-04-23 20:00:06FORECAST2021208-7738.7728.7633.765184.039060834140.26081.90080.442.3408FF6.77203.77115460.2408809490284.7022994873330.312227232804638821251212.5DRYL
2021-04-23 15:56:02FORECAST2021208-7739.5327.9633.745183.057858732710.25791.30790.441.7479FF7.53201.53115459.8973716718484.1878280950480.339177728336798821241210DRYL
2021-04-23 12:00:06FORECAST2021208-774027.7633.88181.937349796430.21051.25050.441.6905FF8210115459.5040439409483.6009479753560.356277348675578821241210DRYL
2021-04-23 08:00:06FORECAST2021208-7734.6828.3431.51182.414114036030.26521.19520.431.6252FF2.68199.68115459.6715374013583.8505762426470.18609689019396881124128DRYL
2021-04-23 04:00:08FORECAST2021208-7738.5526.4232.485182.341521528970.21271.18270.431.6127FF6.55203.55115459.6460478008383.812559720780.304601564715198821241210DRYL
2021-04-22 23:59:39FORECAST2021208-7735.7927.1631.475182.696630171650.19341.11340.461.5734FF3.79212.79115459.7706933189683.9985563210590.216805326258881124128DRYL
2021-04-22 20:00:06FORECAST2021208-7739.3426.432.87183.309493523640.15721.07720.471.5472FF7.34216.34115459.9855481965484.3197178681010.332355630374698821241210DRYL
2021-04-22 15:56:05FORECAST2021208-7740.162934.58183.476320749320.2111.1110.471.581FF8.16215.16115460.0439758454284.4071760710070.362167150786968821241210DRYL
2021-04-22 12:00:06FORECAST2021208-7738.5829.2733.925183.215398566910.20421.16420.481.6442FF6.58212.58115459.9525825391784.2703957317940.305636546198718821241210DRYL
2021-04-22 07:59:42FORECAST2021208-7735.1828.1831.68183.906511300640.14531.22530.481.7053FF3.18201.18115460.1945266501684.6327699158780.19958201985027881124128DRYL
2021-04-22 03:55:57FORECAST2021208-7739.8128.234.005183.278277571850.14441.19440.481.6744FF7.81210.81115459.9746127305984.3033547480410.349327563226258821241210DRYL
2021-04-22 00:00:06FORECAST2021208-7740.627.0333.815183.54310087740.15791.12790.451.5779FF8.6205.6115460.0673572114684.4421893550610.378529335051798821241210DRYL
2021-04-21 20:00:06FORECAST2021208-7740.6726.7733.72184.496586729840.13221.04220.431.4722FF8.67216.67115460.4007638636384.9423694606520.381153478047898821241210DRYL
2021-04-21 16:00:06FORECAST2021208-7741.2927.7934.54183.580450644850.11920.93920.441.3792FF9.29219.29115460.0804325548184.4617731412890.40462172984962882123127.5DRYL
2021-04-21 12:00:06FORECAST2021208-7739.0628.6533.855184.012878831570.28171.23170.461.6917FF7.06210.06115460.2317259984384.6885648305960.322402917113638821241210DRYL
2021-04-21 07:59:42FORECAST2021208-7739.128.7533.925184.545143060730.28171.39170.481.8717FF7.1206.1115460.4177210222784.967854193750.323817181462948821241210DRYL
2021-04-21 04:00:08FORECAST2021208-7738.6429.4434.04184.474409535270.36781.48780.481.9678FF6.64210.64115460.393018303384.9307302056640.307711163821928821241210DRYL
2021-04-21 00:00:06FORECAST2021208-7737.9629.6433.8185.371463708030.45341.57340.522.0934FF5.96197.96115460.7059737084685.4017406853720.284572222835238821151210DRYL
2021-04-20 20:00:06FORECAST2021208-7732.9326.2129.57189.799063457430.45341.47340.511.9834FF0.93189.93115462.240228544487.7327624700750.14348046437401881114126DRYL
2021-04-20 16:02:07FORECAST2021208-7733.4326.5730188.454905226350.31941.35940.51.8594FF1.43197.43115461.7762725606487.0240036811910.15492528005829881114126DRYL
2021-04-20 12:00:06FORECAST2021208-7735.8826.8531.365189.959654780110.24671.57670.411.9867FF3.88203.88115462.2955531467487.8175036821360.21941714702418811251210DRYL
2021-04-20 08:00:06FORECAST2021208-7735.8628.3832.12189.796425553210.2491.5090.411.919FF3.86197.86115462.2393195833587.7313706070670.21883518805725881115127.5DRYL
2021-04-20 04:00:08FORECAST2021208-7735.8628.3832.12189.579499689060.2491.5090.441.949FF3.86200.86115462.1645510785987.6169243674990.218835188057258811251210DRYL
2021-04-20 00:00:06FORECAST2021208-7734.1927.1930.69191.98881014060.63541.61540.462.0754FF2.19194.19115462.9926678451488.8894114034080.17344271562132881115127.5DRYL
2021-04-19 20:00:07FORECAST2021208-7735.7728.4532.11190.084968150570.27621.19620.451.6462FF3.77204.77115462.3387086259987.8836387039480.21622736782627881124128DRYL
2021-04-19 15:56:15FORECAST2021208-7735.8329.4232.625189.467245041980.22341.13340.441.5734FF3.83206.83115462.1258437459187.5577104772380.21796391387672881124128DRYL
2021-04-19 11:59:41FORECAST2021208-7733.8830.632.24185.625259770610.04070.73070.441.1707FF1.88203.88115460.7943862395485.5350776465520.16572623444978881123126DRYL
2021-04-19 08:02:04FORECAST2021208-7734.931.6133.255184.517707275870.03190.61190.431.0419FF2.9203.9115460.408139975584.9534543994280.19195947842121881123126DRYL
2021-04-19 04:00:07FORECAST2021208-7734.9431.6133.275184.203094016010.0220.6020.431.032FF2.94217.94115460.2982238871984.7883570100940.19303739518161881123126DRYL