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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, April 11, 2021

[ Saturday, April 10, 2021 | Index | Today | Monday, April 12, 2021 ]

DAY 193 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/12/2021 08:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.49°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 15.07°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 23.78°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.161
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 72

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.02 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.38 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.03 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.41 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 206 in
SWE DAY: 100
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 460.20 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 94.97 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -92

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-04-12 07:59:47OBSERVATION2021193-9232.4899615.0699223.77994206.366057083330.0199999999999820.379999999999982.032.41FF0.4899672.48996100460.20103256893 94.9698725569280.1613616849683592 1112123DRYL
2021-04-12 03:56:30OBSERVATION2021193-9232.4899615.0699223.77994206.366057083330.0199999999999820.379999999999982.032.41FF0.4899672.48996100460.20103256893 94.9698725569280.1613616849683592 1112123DRYL
2021-04-12 00:00:03FORECAST2021193-9124.5724.5724.57207.007161819670.00150.36152.032.3915FF-7.4364.57101460.9464933117295.4192253311890.033736912329577921112123DRYL
2021-04-11 12:00:02FORECAST2021193-9134.7724.929.835206.988442671470.00650.36652.032.3965FF2.7774.77101460.9399814783295.4092489312140.22734249179972921112123DRYL
2021-04-11 08:00:03FORECAST2021193-9130.0519.524.775207.058099761130.01250.37252.032.4025FF-1.9570.05101460.9642115349495.446373698310.10615928655639921112123DRYL
2021-04-11 04:00:07FORECAST2021193-9136.0218.1727.095206.97885027880.01470.37472.032.4047FF4.0276.02101460.9366444510195.4041367198350.26914448485742922112124DRYL
2021-04-11 00:00:03FORECAST2021193-9235.0217.8126.415206.088348031680.0210.1012.032.131FF3.0269.02100460.1038680698394.8220460934960.23539913216734921112123DRYL
2021-04-10 19:56:48FORECAST2021193-9235.1218.4326.775204.99020241130.00660.21662.032.2466FF3.1274.12100459.7189781789294.237886389210.23866530482819921112123DRYL
2021-04-10 16:00:03FORECAST2021193-9235.2218.4926.855204.982859773560.00560.21562.032.2456FF3.2274.22100459.7164010373994.2339825694520.24195608161597921112123DRYL
2021-04-10 12:00:06FORECAST2021193-9235.6118.6627.135205.665128294250.00370.21372.032.2437FF3.6174.61100459.9556605955694.5968399460530.25502164542262922112124DRYL
2021-04-10 08:00:06FORECAST2021193-9235.7618.7227.24206.307099980780.00350.31352.032.3435FF3.7673.76100460.1804104612394.9384859502220.2601432558288922112124DRYL
2021-04-10 04:00:08FORECAST2021193-9236.3918.8327.61207.25351356440.00320.40322.032.4332FF4.3973.39100460.511075673895.4425384687160.28221739486675922112124DRYL
2021-04-10 00:00:03FORECAST2021193-9236.9318.4227.675211.557519434830.00420.62422.032.6542FF4.9366.93100462.0048554175597.7406011789850.30182741005757922113126DRYL
2021-04-09 20:00:06FORECAST2021193-9236.8417.5627.2210.898649862860.00550.80552.032.8355FF4.8476.84100461.7772405843197.3881965766280.2985168695111922113126DRYL
2021-04-09 16:00:06FORECAST2021193-9236.3418.327.32210.549294608490.00530.72532.032.7553FF4.3476.34100461.6563967649697.2014286903570.28043308606859922113126DRYL
2021-04-09 12:00:06FORECAST2021193-923719.2828.14210.995733300610.01440.69442.032.7244FF578100461.8108032202297.4401090715930.3044136140837922113126DRYL
2021-04-09 08:00:06FORECAST2021193-9236.3119.1227.715211.126491609330.01720.70722.032.7372FF4.3173.31100461.8559944899597.5100357453990.27936512575036922113126DRYL
2021-04-09 04:00:08FORECAST2021193-9236.4819.2627.87211.339452051910.02260.73262.032.7626FF4.4875.48100461.9295634494397.6239408259810.28544283692151922113126DRYL
2021-04-08 23:56:55FORECAST2021193-9236.0819.0627.57206.542385754750.02570.74571.632.3757FF4.0877.08100460.2626906613495.0637542030930.27124363574427922113126DRYL
2021-04-08 20:00:06FORECAST2021193-9236.8918.9527.92206.240145519380.02450.69451.632.3245FF4.8975.89100460.1569872795794.9028440182970.30035402286783922113126DRYL
2021-04-08 16:00:06FORECAST2021193-9236.7218.8127.765206.752087224410.02170.78171.632.4117FF4.7277.72100460.3359825154295.1754252095640.29412867780377922113126DRYL
2021-04-08 12:00:06FORECAST2021193-9236.9518.2427.595206.671018605620.01710.72711.632.3571FF4.9577.95100460.3076532015995.1322515591350.30256531857911922113126DRYL
2021-04-08 08:01:47FORECAST2021193-9239.3418.5428.94206.691486213340.01750.71751.662.3775FF7.3475.34100460.3148061285595.1431514047150.39578836780014922113126DRYL
2021-04-08 04:00:08FORECAST2021193-9239.1818.6128.895207.258999810950.01490.69491.722.4149FF7.1881.18100460.5129901842295.4454617455280.38928411063837922113126DRYL
2021-04-08 00:00:06FORECAST2021193-9239.2918.4428.865214.382418519160.01690.72691.872.5969FF7.2972.29100462.9764463248699.254010280530.39375257546181922113126DRYL
2021-04-07 20:00:05FORECAST2021193-9238.9215.7127.315212.615130356320.01350.90352.413.3135TF6.9281.92100462.3694249612398.3067355609080.37878127634432922113126DRYL
2021-04-07 16:00:05FORECAST2021193-9238.8917.2828.085212.750990513670.00780.91782.393.3078TF6.8981.89100462.4161864337798.3795016933390.37757498535752922113126DRYL
2021-04-07 12:00:06FORECAST2021193-9239.217.7428.47214.485795910190.00930.79932.343.1393FF7.285.2100463.0118697081799.3094693902230.39009548994594922113126DRYL
2021-04-07 08:00:05FORECAST2021193-9235.7217.4626.59214.318035939660.00670.78672.343.1267FF3.7274.72100462.9543802355599.2194735017440.25877233465587922113126DRYL
2021-04-07 04:00:09FORECAST2021193-9235.7217.4626.59214.449825066810.00640.77642.373.1464FF3.7275.72100462.9995449640399.2901714235470.25877233465587922113126DRYL
2021-04-07 00:00:06FORECAST2021193-9241.7718.4430.105215.757352231130.00320.68322.353.0332FF9.7767.77100463.4468222862899.992059276420.49710101846372922113126DRYL
2021-04-06 20:00:06FORECAST2021193-9241.816.6929.245215.262388000480.00440.69442.262.9544FF9.884.8100463.2776802203899.7262597515620.49836676115384922113126DRYL
2021-04-06 16:00:07FORECAST2021193-9241.316.6928.995215.293241030280.00610.70612.232.9361FF9.386.3100463.2882297133799.7428245061740.47728298652489922113126DRYL
2021-04-06 12:00:06FORECAST2021193-9240.2922.4731.38215.303276455630.02810.75812.182.9381FF8.2984.29100463.2916609210399.7482125508690.43494764048007922113126DRYL
2021-04-06 08:00:06FORECAST2021193-9240.3922.4231.405215.646955945340.02760.73762.212.9476FF8.3973.39100463.4091154460799.9327651032690.4391141673177922113126DRYL
2021-04-06 04:00:08FORECAST2021193-9240.7822.4131.595215.894094406020.03410.77412.22.9741FF8.7885.78100463.49351314401100.065512283290.45542395307007922113126DRYL
2021-04-06 00:00:06FORECAST2021193-9237.8120.7729.29219.450769014540.01360.91362.163.0736FF5.8171.81100464.70226696347101.979269847930.33502520819536922113126DRYL
2021-04-05 20:00:07FORECAST2021193-9237.8819.8628.87219.297599606290.01360.89362.143.0336FF5.8881.88100464.65043626415101.896725328740.33772668816253922113126DRYL
2021-04-05 16:00:07FORECAST2021193-9234.7920.6127.7220.111178543620.05070.98072.163.1407FF2.7978.79100464.9255109044102.335302140160.22798126131402921113124.5DRYL
2021-04-05 12:00:06FORECAST2021193-9235.8920.6828.285217.349242498310.06860.68862.092.7786FF3.8979.89100463.98937282302100.847738710350.26462442836035922113126DRYL
2021-04-05 08:00:06FORECAST2021193-9236.4820.0428.26217.21130201410.01340.62342.092.7134FF4.4866.48100463.94244649298100.773542862350.28544283692151922113126DRYL
2021-04-05 04:00:08FORECAST2021193-9236.4820.0328.255215.57769893370.01340.59342.062.6534FF4.4874.48100463.3854546956599.8955700426340.28544283692151922113126DRYL
2021-04-04 23:56:53FORECAST2021193-9241.9324.533.215214.142050801860.00420.37422.052.4242FF9.9384.93100462.8940457560799.1250802621740.50385167253164923112125DRYL
2021-04-04 20:00:06FORECAST2021193-9238.3619.8429.1215.538850113750.00760.43762.082.5176FF6.3683.36100463.3721806831299.8747069991430.35647036524504922112124DRYL
2021-04-04 16:00:06FORECAST2021193-9236.7519.7728.26215.738438393560.00360.43362.122.5536FF4.7580.75100463.4403628461999.9819001689840.29522293102433922112124DRYL
2021-04-04 12:00:06FORECAST2021193-9222.4217.2519.835221.09440583660.03521.01521.882.8952FF-9.5863.42100465.25718670213102.865761255120.019840803497899921114126DRYL
2021-04-04 08:00:06FORECAST2021193-9220.4117.6519.03221.300397141980.02321.00321.892.8932FF-11.5959.41100465.32656964565102.97695466330.01157593528779921114126DRYL
2021-04-04 04:00:08FORECAST2021193-9219.0815.8817.48221.982772349660.02641.01641.92.9164FF-12.9264.08100465.55615127701103.345445144910.0079214209202757921114126DRYL